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The Natural Philosopher wrote:
> On 13/02/2024 16:58, Richard Falken wrote:
>> I don't think Xi is such a big warmonger since he is taking heavy profits
from
>> the opposite approach - opening to trade and sending Chinesse workforce to
>> develop poor countries to bring them into the Chinesse sphere of influence.
I
>> think his position regarding Taiwan is macho posturing. Putin has also a
>> non-weak (I won't say "strong") case that the NATO is making open advances
>> torward Russian interests and that Russian efforts to collaborate with NATO
>> against common enemies have not been welcome.
>
> I think a bit more than that. Up to a point, I think your analysis is
> fair enough, BUT Chinas economy is in deep shit, and when your economy
> is in deeps shit having a war is handy to kill all your young people who
> want a better life you can't offer them, and justify draconian measures
> of control.
That's a curious argument to make while discussing China and
Russia. It certainly didn't work that way for the last Tsar of
Russia at the end of WWI, nor for the Nationalist Chinese
government after WWII. Of course Stalin and Mao both found very
effective ways of achieving such population reduction while
consolidating their power, without the many risks of going to war.
> And China wants Taiwan because it doesn't have really good chip fab of
> its own.
Almost within range of being on topic! But invading Taiwan wouldn't
do anything to solve that problem for China. What good is owning
the country where there used to be a major chip fab before the tech
and workers were inevitably shipped out or blown up as soon as the
invasion started? Of course the US will be prepared to destroy all
the rare fab equipment before the Chinese reach it, if indeed they
don't have time to simply move it to another country.
> Not enough for large scale drone production
Are you sure? Mainland Chinese fab technology is certainly capable
of making chips for drones, and how would one know what their
capacity to fulfill military orders of lower-spec chips is?
> It has been noted that Russia, having nothing but oil money to purchase
> Western politicians and governments and Western tech, is up shit creek
> if it's cut off from those.
Russia's chip manufacturers are apparantly focusing on FPGA-based
computer designs, which I find interesting. but in practice I
suspect they'll be buying most parts from China.
> China is vulnerable militarily and economically. in a similar way to
> Japan in 1940.
>
> A roll of the dice might be a 'nothing to lose but a population we dont
> want anyway' move
They're more likely to try and redirect public frustrations about
a declining local economy or ineffective leadership by blaming
problems on foreign powers. They may prefer to fight a war against
the US than a civil war in China itself. Especially if they pester
the US or an allied country enough that they actually make the
first move, not unlike Zelenskiy in Ukraine.
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