From: rcp27g@gmail.com   
      
   Adam H. Kerman  wrote:   
   > bob  wrote:   
   >> Adam H. Kerman  wrote:   
   >   
   >>> If the nations of the world didn't have "buy domestic" laws and the   
   >>> United States didn't have excessive buff strength requirements that   
   >>> effectively freeze out European train sets? What's the   
   >>> point in speculating.   
   >   
   >> How long have you got and how much money are you willing to pay? These   
   >> trains are not a clean sheet new design, they are built on decades of   
   >> experience within Alstom of both the TGV and Pendolino platforms. The cost   
   >> of reproducing all of that experience in order to actually design these   
   >> trains in the US would be astronomical if it can then only be used to sell   
   >> a once-in-20-years NEC equipment order. There is a good reason why, if you   
   >> want a 200 mph capable tilting train there are basically only three   
   >> suppliers in the world who can meet the requirement. There simply isn't   
   >> enough demand to support more. It's the same reason why there are only two   
   >> global suppliers of 200+ seat airframes, three suppliers for their engines   
   >> and so on.   
   >   
   > That's very well put.   
   >   
   > I disagree a little:   
   >   
   > One of the reasons that the domestic market died is that, when rolling   
   > stock was ordered by private transit companies and railroads, they spread   
   > the business around to ensure that they'd never unintentionally create a   
   > sole-supplier situation. They were also willing to place smaller orders.   
      
   That might hold water for <100 mph regional and commuter rail, subway and   
   LRV type vehicles, the case we're looking at here is high speed intercity   
   railway vehicles. There has simply never been a meaningful market for this   
   kind of product in the US since the 1950s.   
      
   > I disagree about your airframe comment entirely. Airbus is the result   
   > of domestic protection laws of various European countries. The supply   
   > marketplace has been so thoroughly interfered with we have no idea   
   > what would exist.   
   >   
   > I don't think there's much of a market for those huge planes at all. One   
   > of the new runways at Chicago O'Hare was built to land those things, paid   
   > for entirely by taxes and surcharges on airline passengers flying on   
   > planes that had no trouble landing on runways sized for the jet age   
   > in the 1960s.   
      
   200+ seats covers pretty much the whole twin-aisle market, including   
   aircraft like the A330 and 777 (and some larger 767 variants). If you   
   include anything >200 seats, there is a pretty big market.   
      
   Robin   
      
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