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|    RAILFAN    |    Trains, model railroading hobby    |    3,261 messages    |
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|    Message 2,229 of 3,261    |
|    Leroy N. Soetoro to All    |
|    25-year wait for Sound Transit to finish    |
|    24 May 16 21:51:46    |
      From: leroysoetoro@usurper.org              XPost: alt.society.labor-unions, seattle.politics, sac.politics       XPost: alt.politics.democrats, rec.crafts.metalworking, alt.politics.economics              http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/25-year-wait-for-       sound-transit-to-finish-light-rail-heres-why/              To complete such an ambitious light-rail project, it would take years for       Sound Transit to collect the taxes, absorb citizen demands and deal with       engineering challenges.              A few nights ago in Ballard, a crowd of 300 people booed and hissed when       Mike O’Brien, their Seattle City Council representative, said the       neighborhood might not see light rail for 22 years.              The same frustrations are simmering up north, where the draft Sound       Transit 3 plan, aimed at the November ballot, would take 25 years to reach       both the Paine Field industrial area and Everett Station. Elected       officials there are making a counterproposal they say would cut eight       years off the timeline.              In most regions of the country, when expensive proposals are unveiled —       and this one would raise sales, property and car-tab taxes an average $400       per household per year — local politicians would brace for a tax revolt.              That may yet occur, but a more immediate threat for Sound Transit is       disillusionment from the left. Urbanists, transit supporters and ordinary       citizens are impatient.              “You’ve got a large voter base here,” said Mike Kahrs, a Ballard resident       who stood up to question officials at the forum. “You’re going to put       forth a package that would make us wait 22 years for service. Is that a       wise decision?”              After years of encouraging people to demand light rail, Sound Transit has       backed itself into a corner. To go big takes a very long time.              The $50 billion program offers 58 miles of light rail, including the       Everett-Tacoma “spine,” spokes to Ballard, West Seattle, Issaquah and       Redmond, a new downtown Seattle tunnel and a Paine Field loop, plus       Sounder commuter rail to DuPont, I-405 and Highway 522 bus lines and park-       and-ride spaces. It will take a quarter century to do all that, officials       say.              New taxes to fund construction would arrive very gradually, over five       decades. In Seattle, the east downtown tunnel and five underground       stations would have to fit among building foundations and other tunnels.       And in the Northwest, everybody wants to be heard before the dirt turns.              “We’ve tried to be realistic about what it takes to deliver the projects,”       said Ric Ilgenfritz, the agency’s planning director.              The size is a function of political geography.              A shorter, faster plan likely wouldn’t reach enough communities — or allow       for enough colored route lines on campaign mailers— to attract support       from the 1.7 million voters in Sound Transit’s service territory.              To ask for still higher taxes, for the purpose of accelerating the plan,       is forbidden by a cap in a 2015 state law, even presuming voters could be       persuaded to dig deeper.              Public comment ends Friday, followed by a final transit-board vote in June       on a final plan for the November ballot.              “We have a lot of people who want their project done first and want it       done perfectly,” said Sound Transit CEO Peter Rogoff. He said the current       version is workable, but that’s what the April barnstorming is about, to       hear feedback.              “Bottom line is, it’s going to be important that folks not let the perfect       be the enemy of the good. Once we’ve worked it out with community partners       as best we can, we need people to rally behind it,” Rogoff said. “When       ballot measures fail, the next ballot measure brought back is smaller.       Some projects in ST3, should it fail, may not be on the next measure going       forward.”              http://static.seattletimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/54e4cbe2-08f5-       11e6-b2f8-49e91e9a711d-1020x1760.jpg              Sound Transit, along with L.A. Metro, stands far beyond other regions in       its ambition on this year’s ballot to focus growth around high-capacity       rail, said Jason Jordan, executive director of the national Center for       Transportation Excellence, which tracks pro-transit ballot measures.              Los Angeles voters this year are expected to consider a 40-year, $120       billion request for a sales-tax increase of which two-thirds would go for       transit and one-third toward streets and highways.              Tom Rubin, a prominent bus supporter, and former chief financial officer       at L.A. Metro, considers the Seattle-area rail timeline realistic. “If the       question is, why would it take 25 years for Sound Transit to build out 58       miles of light rail, a better question would be ‘Why would anyone want       to?’?” he said.              The nonpartisan Smarter Transit, formerly the Coalition for Effective       Transportation Alternatives, accuses politicians of ignoring a cheaper       transit solution — bus-rapid transit — that could be implemented much more       quickly to go beyond the Lynnwood Station, which will open in 2023.              Here are some reasons ST3 would need a quarter-century:              • Cash flow              Similar to state highway funds, regional transit money is leveraged on the       taxpayers’ credit card.              Rail projects already approved or completed are so expensive that       principal and interest payments are scheduled to continue until about       2050, including obligations of $445 million a year during the 2030s.       Existing taxes from Sound Move in 1996 and ST2 in 2008 are expected to       cover about $9 billion of ST3.              And the agency can’t just sell bonds for the whole thing right away.       Fiscal policies require that Sound Transit not commit to more than $100 in       debt payments for every $150 of net income, after operating costs.              Chief Financial Officer Brian McCartan therefore must calibrate the start       date for each track line and bond sale, so as not to get overextended in       any given year. His full financial plan is expected in a few weeks.              Some transit boosters ask if cities, especially Seattle, could somehow       offerlending capacity to Sound Transit. Whether that’s doable, and whether       it would ravage other city services, is undetermined.              “It’s got to be part of the conversation,” said City Councilmember Rob       Johnson.              The current ST3 plan assumes federal grants would cover 11 percent of the       light-rail work, and any increase would reduce the need to borrow.       Previously the feds approved $1.3 billion for the Tukwila-UW corridor and       $1.2 billion for the Northgate-Lynnwood segment, both favorable signs.              Cost estimates for new projects need to be somewhat high because so little       engineering has been done.              “You don’t really know what these things are going to cost until you have       30 percent design, so they’re going to be pretty conservative,” said Scott       Rutherford, University of Washington professor of civil engineering. “If       everything goes right, as on U-Link, you become heroes when you save $150       million.”              Then there’s revenue risk.              Following the 2008 ballot win, the recession and slumping sales-tax       revenues led Sound Transit to break its promise of a north Federal Way       light-rail stop by 2023. That station and points south are in ST3.              • Planning process              If there is any hope of saving time, Rogoff said, it’s in the preparation,       not the construction.              Sound Transit says a major light-rail route has needed one to three years       to study alignment options, an additional four to six years for       environmental study and preliminary design, and two to three years for       engineering.              Its $3.7 billion East Link line took eight years to advance from voter       approval to Friday’s groundbreaking, and Bellevue service won’t begin       until 2023, two years late. Transit and Bellevue officials didn’t propose       a specific alignment until after the 2008 election, and they struggled       over how to split the costs of a downtown tunnel that was added at       Bellevue’s insistence.              Everett-area officials insist huge delays are unnecessary.              In their counterproposal last week, they suggested placing the       northernmost three miles next to I-5 instead of along Evergreen Way,       reducing land costs and disputes.              “Wherever two or more are gathered in Snohomish County, there in the midst       will be opposition to the ST3 2041 schedule,” said County Executive Dave       Somers, a transit-board member.              Everett Councilmember Paul Roberts said his experience in siting Boeing       aircraft factories, and the experience of other officials, prepares them       for light-rail planning. The north line’s aerial trackway is       straightforward to engineer and build, Roberts said, as proven at Tukwila       and SeaTac.              “We know how to do this stuff and we have a team assembled to do it. We       are going to figure it out,” he said.              Over in West Seattle, a proposed elevated route (instead of a tunnel       portrayed as one possibility last year) may trigger lengthy study and       complaints about bulk, as with the smaller, unbuilt Green Line monorail in       the early 2000s.              • Difficult engineering              The University District, where the station is due in 2021, shows how       unforeseen technical challenges can cause delays.              After it was approved on the 1996 ballot, cost estimates and schedules       exploded following discovery of boulders under Portage Bay. The solution       required a completely new route below Montlake Cut.              In the case of Ballard in ST3, that distant 2038 goal is driven mainly by       the complexity of building a tunnel through downtown, uptown and South       Lake Union. A second Westlake Station would be built just east of and       below the existing transit hub — while trains operate nearby.              That’s the latest feature to make Link light rail more expensive than       other Western light-rail programs, including Portland MAX. Sound Transit       is building four-car stations to meet capacity far beyond current needs,       along with miles of soft-ground tunnels, and unique pivoting rail joints       on the I-90 floating bridge.              A tough question for Ballardites is whether a tunnel under Salmon Bay,       requested by community groups, would take more years to deliver than the       70-foot-high train drawbridge currently proposed.              For now, transit staff and consultants haven’t even estimated how long it       might take to tunnel under Salmon Bay, because it would eliminate any       chance to fund a West Seattle line, said spokesman Geoff Patrick.              Attempts to save money can backfire, as City Councilmember Sally Bagshaw       hinted in a speech to the Ballard crowd.              “Every bridge has a cost as well; you have to buy more property, you have       to be sure there are easements,” she said.              Councilmember Johnson cautioned that even 24-hour-a-day construction       wouldn’t do much to speed the project.              Johnson, who isn’t 40 yet, joked about the underlying assumption “that       everybody in this room will be dead in 22 years, but we’ll all be alive in       19 years.”                            --       His Omnipotence Barack Hussein Obama, declared himself "Pooptator" of all       mentally ill homosexuals and crossdressers, while declaring where they       will defecate.              Obama increased total debt from $10 trillion to $19 trillion in the seven       years he has been in office, and sold out heterosexuals for Hollywood       queer liberal democrat donors.              Barack Obama, reelected by the dumbest voters in the history of the United       States of America. The only American president to deliberately import a       lethal infectious disease from Africa, Ebola.              Loretta Fuddy, killed after she "verified" Obama's phony birth       certificate.              Obama ignored the brutal killing of an American diplomat in Benghazi, then       relieved American military officers who attempted to prevent said murder       in order to cover up his own ineptitude.              Obama continues his muslim goal of disarming America while ObamaCare       increases insurance premiums 300% and leaves millions without health care.              --- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: news@netfront.net ---              --- SoupGate/W32 v1.03        * Origin: LiveWire BBS -=*=- UseNet FTN Gateway (1:2320/1)    |
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