John Albert  wrote:   
   > NORFOLK, Va. – Norfolk Southern has released a seven-minute video   
   > on YouTube this week promoting its installation of positive train control   
   > technology.   
   >   
   > "Norfolk Southern is committed to implementing a   
   > positive train control (PTC) system that will strengthen an already safe   
   > rail network," the company says on its YouTube page. "However, far too   
   > many technological and regulatory barriers exist today, and despite our   
   > best efforts, the 2015 deadline for full implementation of PTC will not be   
   > met."   
   >   
   > =====   
   >   
   > This was predicted by me in this forum, some years ago when the PTC   
   > legislation was first passed by Congress.   
   >   
   > Of course, one can pass any law one wants, mandating anything one wants,   
   > in the time frame that one wants -- as Congress did with PTC.   
   >   
   > Just pass a law, and it becomes reality, right?   
   >   
   > 2015: Reality bites.   
   >   
   > The reality is that PTC remains (as yet) an unreachable goal -- even with   
   > deep-pocket railroads like NS that have probably dumped many millions   
   > into trying to make something workable. The only problem is that the   
   > systems under development just ain't "workable" yet.   
   >   
   > Prediction:   
   > 1. Deadline in 2015 will come and go without PTC implementation   
   > 2. FRA will make a lot of noise, then go quiet on the subject   
   > 3. Congress will pass additional legislation extending the deadline for   
   > PTC implementation. I predict somewhere between 2022 and 2025...   
   >   
   > .... if it can eventually be made workable at all...   
   >   
   > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gdjuKx6aYM&feature=player_embe   
   ded&list=UUFyf_43M-VpQ2-TJs220TEw   
      
   PTC is currently live on several BNSF subdivisions, basically the same   
   system that all the freight roads are adopting. It's expensive and only   
   prevents a small subset of all accidents, but it works well enough for what   
   it is.   
      
   No, there is no way all the big railroads will all meet the 2015 deadline.   
   It is likely that none of them will - one may have been on track until the   
   Feds realized that the radio tower licenses they had been issuing were   
   supposed to go through an unworkable permitting process, halting   
   installation of all towers that had not been previously approved.   
   Furthermore, radio spectrum in the chosen bands is not available in all   
   areas, and the suppliers, engineers, contractors, and railroad signal   
   departments have not been able to ramp up capacity to match the pace   
   required by the deadline. In the case of suppliers and contractors, you   
   certainly can't blame them, because there's a big risk they will have a   
   whole lot of excess capacity once PTC is done.   
      
   BUT, the problem isn't that the system doesn't work, it's that the system   
   can't be deployed fast and wide enough.   
      
   Dan   
      
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