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   The news has spread that Germany wants the gold stored in the US returned to   
   Germany.   
      
   This is politically sensitive, because this step makes it clear that Germany   
   is reconsidering its role with the US.   
      
   The last time Germany wanted some of its gold back, it took four years for the   
   gold to arrive.   
      
   This time, Germany wants the gold NOW.   
      
   After all, Germany needs the gold to be able to make additional expenditures   
   without increasing its government deficits.   
      
   Germany really needs the value of the gold now, because high energy prices are   
   unsustainable for German industry.   
      
   The question now is what the US will do.   
      
   Refusing to repatriate the gold makes it clear that the US has become   
   completely unreliable. Punishing the repatriation with import duties sends the   
   same message. A message that other European countries will then hear very   
   loudly.   
      
   The US does not want us to lose our dependence on the US. So I expect at least   
   delaying tactics, but with Trump at the helm, an outright refusal is also not   
   unthinkable. It could trigger a financial crisis and spark a very serious   
   trade war with the US.   
      
   What the US does will therefore be extremely important. A contributing factor   
   is that the US may have used gold completely illegally as collateral for paper   
   trades. This could put additional pressure on this narrative, possibly with an   
   illegal drop in the gold price to keep settlement affordable for banks. Given   
   the declining confidence in fiat money, I expect gold to become much more   
   valuable afterward. Citizens' confidence in fiat money is extremely important.   
   Gold plays a role in restoring confidence because it can serve as partial   
   backing for the currency.   
      
      
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