MSGID: 1:135/250@fidonet 686eb227   
   PID: C-NET AMIGA BBS 5.36b   
   On Mon  7-Jul-2025  6:29a, Joseph Pereira@1:124/5016.0 wrote:   
      
   JP> Dozens have died in floods in Texas. The link is being made to the severe   
   JP> cutbacks by DOGE. Many weather scientists were reportedly fired because,   
   JP> according to DOGE, weather forecasting could be done more cheaply.   
   JP> Apparently, being cheap has now become expensive. Will these deaths now   
   JP> also be attributed to Trump and Musk?   
      
     An event like this (Simmilar to an aircraft, train, or ship accident) is   
   best described by the "Swiss Cheese Model".  There are multiple slices of   
   swiss cheese and for the event to occure ALL the holes in the slices must   
   match up.  If one layer doesn't then the event can not take place. Playing the   
   finger pointing, scapegoat game might make us all feel better, feeling we   
   found and dealt with the culript, does little to prevent the event from   
   happening in the future.   
      
   Things that will be looked out, and what we know so far.   
      
   1) Storm Prediction / Storm Warning.   
   Per the NWS the positions responsible for tracking and issuing of warnings   
   were FULLY staffed at their allocated levels.  They issued flash flood   
   warnings as early as 1318 CT Thursday, updating to URGENT warnings at 0114   
   Friday CT.   
      
   2) NWS Warning routing / local action   
   With the exception NOAA weather stations (Weather Radio), it is NOT the   
   responsibility of NOAA or the NWS to ensure the warnings reach end of mile.    
   It is passed to local STATE or Local agencies for action.  Whether that means   
   issuing a Cell phone alert, local radio or television broadcasts, or local law   
   enforcement going door to door recommending or ordering an evacuation.   
      
   3) Timing   
   Due to the early hours that the warning was updated to an URGENT status.  The   
   reach of the End Of Mile warning would reach a limmited number of people.   
      
   4) Infrastructure: The state of Texas decided it would be too expensive to   
   install a wide are flood warning system (Sirens).  People familiar with cell   
   phone coverage of the area the most deaths accured was known to be spotty at   
   best.    
      
   5) The human factor: Cell phone users may have had the alert warning features   
   of their phones turned off, chose not to read the alert, or simply did not   
   recieve the warning due to limmited cell phone coverage.  Those that were   
   ultimately responsible for making a stay or go decision may have made the   
   assumption due to riding out previous storms OK, may have simply decided not   
   to take action (Outcome bias).     
      
   6) Enviromental factors.  The area had been under severe drought conditions   
   for an extended period of time, reducing the grounds ability to absorb the   
   extra rainfall, dumping it all into the river faster than it would have in the   
   past, leading to the above outcome bias leading to the decision not to   
   evacuate.   
      
   All of the reasons stated above, I think it would be disengenuous to place all   
   or any of the blame on Trump and DOGE.  At least we haven't yet heard the   
   usual suspect of DEI.   
      
   Rug Rat (Brent Hendricks)   
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