SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046   
   ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP46   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46  ARLP046   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 19, 2010   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP046   
   ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Five new sunspot groups appeared in the past nine days, and the   
   average daily sunspot number for the November 11-17 period rose   
   nearly 28 points from the week before to 60.9.  Average daily solar   
   flux was up nearly four points to 87.9.   
      
   The current forecast from NOAA/USAF shows a planetary A index of 5   
   on every day through the end of November, and the predicted solar   
   flux on November 19 at 86, 84 on November 20-24, 82 on November   
   25-26, and then 80 through the end of the month.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague has a somewhat different outlook from   
   NOAA/USAF.  They see quiet geomagnetic conditions for November   
   19-20, quiet to unsettled November 21, unsettled November 22-23, and   
   quiet again on November 24-25.   
      
   Conditions should be good during the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes this   
   weekend.  Latest predictions show continued solar activity with low   
   geomagnetic activity levels.   
      
   Dean Straw, N6BV gave a presentation in October at Pacificon 2010   
   titled "Seeing the HF Propagation Big Picture."  The slides are   
   available in a PDF file at http://tinyurl.com/2fgrnlm.  Download the   
   file, and be sure to click through pages 11-14 to see the predicted   
   propagation shifting over time.   
      
   Note that the images from the STEREO mission at   
   http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov now show nearly the entire Sun.  This   
   weekend the project achieves 97% coverage of the Sun.   
      
   Patrick Weatherford, AE5PW of Newport, Arkansas (about 70 miles WNW   
   of Memphis) wrote to tell us of the fun he had on the air on   
   Thursday. Running 100 watts from a ground-mounted vertical, from   
   2106-2156z on 20 meter SSB he worked PJ5/SP6IXF in St. Eustatius and   
   Saba Island, VP2V/NY6X on 20 CW in the British Virgin Islands,   
   PJ5/SP6EQZ on 15 meter CW, YV5AEA in Venezuela on 15 meter PSK31,   
   J29WTA on 17 meter SSB in Dominica, YL2SW/MM near Nigeria on 17   
   meter CW, C5OC on 20 meter SSB in The Gambia, and KH2/N2NL on 17   
   meter CW in Guam.  Following that, he worked both Central and South   
   American stations on 20 meter PSK31.  Conditions have been helped by   
   the increased sunspot numbers.   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK in Wichita, Kansas wrote to tell us about sporadic   
   E-skip on 6 meters on November 13.  He worked K6JSV at 2028z on   
   50.125 MHz, from DM12 to EM18.  There were reports of a number of   
   beacons copied.  N0LL/B in EL09ql was copied by WA5IYX in EM09ow,   
   K7EK/B in DM43 was copied by AC7XP in CN87, and XE2K/B in DN17nt was   
   copied by W7MEM in DM22.   
      
   On November 14 Dave Sarault, N3XF experienced a great opening on 10   
   meters.  He was operating WP2B in the U.S. Virgin Islands.  Dave   
   wrote, "Today, November 14th I was operating from Brad's station and   
   experienced the best 10 meter opening I can remember in several   
   years. I ran a pile up from 2015z to 2125z with signals from W1 and   
   W2 running 40 dB over S9 from stations running 100 watts into   
   verticals and dipoles. Also I was able to work mobiles who were   
   stepping over guys running big beams! It reminded me of 10 meters in   
   the glory days a few cycles ago. The band changed quickly, and at   
   2100z I worked several W6s, but that lasted about 15 minutes and   
   they were gone."   
      
   Check out the interesting narrative about stealth operation at West   
   Point by WP2B on his qrz.com page at http://www.qrz.com/db/wp2b.   
      
   Next week for the Thanksgiving holiday this bulletin will be on a   
   different schedule.  Only the version of the bulletin linked from   
   the http://www.arrl.org home page will go up on Friday, November 26.   
   The bulletin won't be emailed to readers or transmitted from W1AW   
   until Monday, November 29.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 11 through 17 were 48, 68, 63, 69, 62,   
   55, and 61, with a mean of 60.9. 10.7 cm flux was 84.5, 85.4, 85.4,   
   86.4, 90.8, 91.8 and 91.2 with a mean of 87.9. Estimated planetary A   
   indices were 15, 15, 8, 7, 7, 6 and 4 with a mean of 8.9. Estimated   
   mid-latitude A indices were 12, 9, 4, 5, 5, 4 and 3 with a mean of   
   6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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