SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041   
   ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP42   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41  ARLP041   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 12, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP041   
   ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Another decline in sunspot activity this week, but based on activity   
   over the past few days and projected solar flux values it is making   
   a steady recovery.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 73 to 51.7, a difference   
   of 21.3 points. But the past three days saw sunspot numbers higher   
   (63, 71 and 82) than the average, and climbing.   
      
   The average of daily solar flux was off 23.8 points to 104.9, and   
   like the sunspot figures, the past three days saw solar flux values   
   (106.2, 112 and 116.6) higher than the average for the week, a good   
   indicator of the rising activity.   
      
   Predicted solar flux from the Thursday, October 11 NOAA/USAF   
   forecast is 115 on October 12-13, 120 on October 14-17, then 125,   
   130, 150 and 145 on October 18-21, 140 on October 22-23, 135 on   
   October 24-27 and 130, 125, 120 and 115 through the last day of   
   October. Solar flux is then predicted to dip below 100 on November   
   4-8 and peak at 145, 150 and 145 on November 15-17.   
      
   October 12-17 predicted planetary A index is 5, 5, 12, 12, 10 and 8,   
   then 5 on October 18 through November 3, then 18, 20, 12 and 8 on   
   November 4-7, 5 on November 8-10, then 8, 12 and 10 on November   
   11-13 and 5 after that, through the end of the 45 day forecast   
   period.   
      
   We always get a bit different perspective on upcoming geomagnetic   
   conditions from OK1HH.  He predicts quiet to active conditions   
   October 12, quiet to unsettled October 13, quiet on October 14,   
   quiet to unsettled October 15, quiet October 16, quiet to active   
   October 17, quiet to unsettled October 18-19, quiet on October   
   20-22, quiet to active October 23, quiet October 24-27, active to   
   disturbed October 28, mostly quiet October 29-30, quiet October 31   
   and November 1, quiet to active November 2, and mostly quiet   
   November 3.   
      
   October 8-9 showed the most geomagnetic activity during the past   
   week, with planetary A index at 35 and 42, mid-latitude A index at   
   21 and 32, and the high latitude college A index at 66 and 54. This   
   activity was triggered by a coronal mass ejection on October 8.  The   
   predicted rise in planetary A index to 12 on October 14-15 is   
   because of a solar wind spewing from a coronal hole, which should   
   rotate into a geo-effective position during that time.   
      
   John King, EI2HVB said on October 10 he worked W1AW in Newington, CT   
   on 20 meter CW using only 2 watts into a sloping V dipole from an   
   MFJ Cub transceiver. This was right after seeing aurora from his QTH   
   for several nights in a row.  Of course, unlike here on the West   
   Coast, a path from W1AW to Ireland is not anything near a polar   
   route, so it would not be as affected by geomagnetic unrest as a   
   contact to Europe from the West Coast would be. In Seattle, my   
   bearing to Letterkenny, John's QTH, would be 35.7 degrees, close to   
   the auroral zone, and his return path would be at 316.9 degrees.   
   But from W1AW short path would be toward 49.2 degrees, and return   
   path is 280.4, further away from the polar path.   
      
   Dean Lewis, W9WGV of Palatine, Illinois wrote: "While working county   
   after county in the California QSO Party on the low end of 10 meters   
   on Saturday, October 6, I heard PY2XC calling CQ DX. Had a friendly   
   exchange with Carlos; 559 signals both ways, no QSB. He was running   
   200W to a dipole; due to outside antenna restrictions I run an Icom   
   703 (10W max) into an end-fed 65 foot wire (half wave on 40 meters)   
   indoors along the upstairs ceiling (I've had the most supportive XYL   
   in hamdom for 42 yrs). It resonates at a low SWR on 40, 20, 15, and   
   10 meters without a tuner. QRZ.com says the distance is 5,248 miles   
   from my QTH (25 miles NW of Chicago). A half hour later his signal   
   was S9+."   
      
   I received some interesting emails this week from a ham who has one   
   of those FCC experimental licenses that allows him to operate below   
   the AM broadcast band to test antennas, radios and propagation. I   
   was about to present some of his observations here in the bulletin,   
   but just now noticed that at the very top of his first email was a   
   statement about "this is not intended for publication."  That's   
   unfortunate, as he wants to attract others to do what he is doing,   
   but now I feel restrained from quoting our correspondence. If you   
   send me an email, normally you can assume that I might quote you as   
   well as make edits for brevity and readability.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at,   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 4 through 10 were 56, 55, 39, 37, 41,   
   63, and 71, with a mean of 51.7. 10.7 cm flux was 109.5, 106.2,   
   98.8, 98.1, 103.4, 106.2, and 112, with a mean of 104.9. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 3, 4, 6, 5, 35, 42, and 10, with a mean of   
   15. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 3, 5, 4, 21, 32, and 6,   
   with a mean of 10.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   Providing   emergency   communications  assistance  to  your   
   neighbors and community isn't just a good thing to do,  it's   
   the first and foremost activity recognized in the U.s. rules   
   governing amateur radio in 47 CFR section 97.1. IF you enjoy   
   amateur  radio  remember  that  this  is  an  obligation you   
   tacitly agreed to when you acquired your license.   
      
      
      
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