SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP040   
   ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP41   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 40  ARLP040   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 5, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP040   
   ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth on September 30, triggering   
   a jump in geomagnetic indices.  The planetary A index on October 1   
   was 31, and the K index went as high as 7, making aurora visible   
   across the northern tier of the United States. Strange, but the   
   northern latitude college A index was 23 (near Fairbanks, Alaska),   
   about the same as the mid-latitude index, which was 21, in   
   Fredericksburg, Virginia. During a geomagnetic disturbance it is   
   common to see indices go much higher in the far-northern latitudes.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers declined 8.3 points to 73, and average   
   daily solar flux was off exactly one point, to 128.7.   
      
   The latest prediction from NOAA/USAF has solar flux on October 5-6   
   at 110, 105 on October 7, 100 on October 8-11, 115 on October 12-13,   
   120 on October 14-15, 130 on October 16, 140 on October 17-18, and   
   then 145 and 150 on October 19-20. The same forecast has solar flux   
   rebounding to 150 on November 16, after reaching a minimum of 110 on   
   November 4-5.   
      
   The predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 5-8, 10 and 8 on   
   October 9-10, 5 on October 11-14, then 8, 12 and 10 on October   
   15-17, 5 on October 18-25, 10 on October 26, 5 on October 27-28, and   
   reaching a peak of 15 on October 29.   
      
   Now from F.K. Janda, OK1HH comes his geomagnetic forecast. October 5   
   expect quiet to active conditions, quiet October 6-8, mostly quiet   
   October 9, quiet October 10, mostly quiet October 11, quiet to   
   unsettled October 12-14, mostly quiet October 15, active to   
   disturbed October 16, mostly quiet October 17, quiet to unsettled   
   October 18, quiet October 19-20, mostly quiet October 21, quiet   
   October 22-23, quiet to unsettled October 24, and back to quiet   
   again on October 25-27.   
      
   In September we saw a slight decline in sunspot averages. Monthly   
   averages of daily sunspot numbers for April through September 2012   
   were 84.5, 99.4, 90.1, 99.6, 85.8 and 84.   
      
   Three-month moving averages of daily sunspot numbers, for 3-month   
   periods ending February through September 2012 were 83.3, 73.7,   
   71.2, 87.3, 91.5, 96.5, 91.9 and 89.9. So the last number, 89.9, was   
   an average of daily sunspot numbers for all of July, August and   
   September, and the number prior to that, 91.9, was for the months of   
   June, July and August.   
      
   In 6 meter news, Floyd Chowning, K5LA of El Paso, Texas wrote, "I   
   have been seeing many spots on the DX cluster where stations are   
   working from Africa to Europe earlier in the day our time. So   
   decided to start listening and finally heard a DX station."  He   
   copied the beacon CE3AA/B in Santiago at 2122z on October 4 on   
   50.0293 MHz. That distance is nearly 5,100 miles.   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK says there was "a fairly impressive aurora" on   
   October 1, and KF6A in Alma, Michigan copied the N0LL 6-meter beacon   
   in Smith Center, Kansas at 0442z on that day on 50.0776 MHz. The   
   distance was 770 miles, and the direction from the beacon toward the   
   receiving station was 66.6 degrees, or roughly east-northeast.   
      
   Jon also wrote, "The next day (or later the same day, UTC)   
   conditions were good on 24 MHz to 3D2C Conway Reef. They were very   
   loud to Kansas around 2030 UTC on October 1. I was able to work them   
   with my mobile set up. With the good but not high solar flux, 24 MHz   
   has often been a good band for DXing, better than 10 or 15 meters.   
   Signals from 3D2C were not nearly as loud on 10 meters when I   
   listened."   
      
   The NASA solar cycle prediction was revised slightly since last   
   month. You may recall that the predicted peak was moved recently   
   from Spring to Fall 2013, and now the predicted peak has gone down   
   one point, from a smoothed sunspot number of 76 to 75. Read it at   
   http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml.   
      
   Larry Godek, W0OGH in Gilbert, Arizona reported October 1: "Saturday   
   and Sunday both the RTTY portions were overloaded with activity.   
   Couldn't believe the number and signal strength of stations. Even 40   
   Saturday night was something I've not heard in many years. On SSB,   
   10 meters in particular, it sounded like the days of AM when   
   stations were overlapping. Amazingly there were very few, maybe half   
   dozen that I heard ragchewing between 28.6 and 29.0 MHz. Almost   
   everything else was below 28.6. Even had good AM activity above 29.0   
   as some of the locals were talking about the QSOs they had in that   
   segment of the band.   
      
   "10 FM through the KQ2H repeater had European stations till after   
   lunch time here in the west. Only heard one or two other stations   
   from the US, all of it was foreign. Even 29.640 had lots of traffic   
   although nothing like 29.620.   
      
   "I didn't check anything on the WSPR modes but it would have been   
   interesting to see how the high SFI and A index affected them as   
   well. You could tell by late Sunday afternoon that things had   
   changed as the noise level came way up almost like the Summer   
   afternoons. Previous to this past 3 days the band noise has been   
   almost nil. Had to turn the gain on the K3 way up on 10 as I thought   
   no noise, weak signals but that wasn't the case at all.   
      
   "I'd suspect the stations who were active this past weekend will be   
   talking about this opening as it truly brought back memories of the   
   good times when the bands were full of activity with great signals."   
      
   The day before, September 30, Larry wrote, "WOW! The RTTY guys must   
   have thought they died and went to heaven! RTTY sigs on 15 meters   
   alone occupied 70 KHz of the band and a lot of excellent quality DX   
   signals as well. 10 was really nice also but didn't spend much time   
   there as I was busy down on the low part of the band. Worked 5 new   
   countries on 10 FM and more on the CW and SSB modes. Lets hope this   
   is an indication of what's left of this cycle. I could certainly use   
   some extra oxygen on days like this when my heart gets a cardiac   
   workout from the excitement of hot bands! Whoever is responsible,   
   keep up the good work. Makes being retired a lot more fun as I may   
   only get one more of these cycles to play in."   
      
   Herb Lacey, W3HL of Cary, North Carolina noted that there seem to be   
   more sunspots south of the Sun's equator than north. I responded   
   that this seems to be true lately, but when I looked in the   
   http://www.spaceweather.com archives over the past year, there   
   didn't seem to be more sunspots in the southern hemisphere. K9LA was   
   consulted, and said that asymmetry in the north-south distribution   
   of sunspots is common. He referred to butterfly diagrams of solar   
   cycles, and you can see them at,   
   http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/144051main_ButterflyDiagramLG.jpg.   
      
   As each solar cycle progresses, sunspots emerge closer to the   
   equator. K9LA drew our attention to Cycle 20, around 1970. You can   
   see a weighting toward the northern hemisphere. The previous cycle,   
   around 1960, Cycle 19, also seems to favor northern spots, and Cycle   
   22 around 1990 seems to favor southern sunspots.   
      
   K9LA doesn't know of any explanation for the asymmetry, and notes it   
   is probably tied to plasma flow in the Sun.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at,   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for September 27 through October 3 were 97, 77, 70,   
   95, 59, 55, and 58, with a mean of 73. 10.7 cm flux was 133.2,   
   137.8, 136, 135.6, 128.1, 118.2, and 111.7, with a mean of 128.7.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 2, 4, 10, 31, 5, and 5, with a   
   mean of 8.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 2, 4, 9, 21,   
   5, and 5, with a mean of 7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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