SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP036   
   ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP37   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 36  ARLP036   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  September 7, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP036   
   ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   A surprising jump in solar activity occurred this week. Average   
   daily sunspot numbers rose nearly 55 points (about 74%) to 128.7.   
   Average daily solar flux values were up over 28 points to 136.9. A   
   pair of coronal mass ejections on September 3 and 4 excited Earth's   
   geomagnetic field, causing A index values to jump. Middle latitude A   
   index on September 2-5 was 14, 23, 14 and 24.  The planetary A index   
   on those dates was 12, 32, 13 and 28, while high-latitude college A   
   index (Fairbanks, Alaska) was 48, 52, 39 and 49.   
      
   Solar flux predictions show flux values peaking today (September 7)   
   at 130, then on September 8-12 solar flux of 125, 120, 115, 110 and   
   105. Solar flux on September 13-16 is predicted at 100, then 95 on   
   September 17-22, then 100, 110, 115, 120 and 125 on September 23-27,   
   and peaking at 130 on September 28. From September 29 through   
   October 2 solar flux is predicted to be 120, then 115 on October   
   3-5, and 110 on October 6-7.   
      
   The planetary A index is predicted at 8 on September 7, the 7 on   
   September 8-10, 5 on September 11-13, 10 on September 14-16, 5 on   
   September 17-19, 10 on September 20, 8 on September 21-23, and 5 on   
   September 24-28.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH predicts our Earth's geomagnetic field will be   
   quiet on September 7, mostly quiet September 8, quiet to unsettled   
   September 9, quiet to active September 10, mostly quiet September   
   11, quiet to unsettled September 12, quiet to active September 13,   
   mostly quiet September 14, quiet to active September 15, quiet to   
   unsettled September 16, quiet September 17, quiet to unsettled   
   September 18, mostly quiet September 19-20, quiet to unsettled   
   September 21, quiet to active September 22, quiet September 23-28,   
   and active to disturbed September 29.   
      
   Our 3 month moving average has an update, now that August is done,   
   and the average daily sunspot number for the trailing three months,   
   June 1 through August 31 was 91.9.  The three month moving averages   
   centered on July 2011 through July 2012 were 63, 79.6, 98.6, 118.8,   
   118.6, 110, 83.3, 73.7, 71.2, 87.3, 91.5, 96.5 and 91.9. The monthly   
   averages of daily sunspot numbers, May through August 2012 were   
   99.4, 90.1, 99.6 and 85.8.   
      
   NASA has a revised forecast for the peak of Cycle 24, and it looks   
   very interesting.  Instead of a peak in Spring 2013 with a smoothed   
   international sunspot number of 60, the peak is now predicted for   
   Fall 2013, with the smoothed sunspot number prediction revised to   
   76, about 27% higher. Perhaps Cycle 24 will have a double peak, the   
   first being in Fall 2011 and the second in Fall 2013.   
      
   The revised forecast is at   
   http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml.   
      
   For VHF propagation, Ken Tata, K1KT tells us to check   
   http://aprs.mountainlake.k12.mn.us/ which he says is "great for   
   live, real time propagation as they are derived from global APRS   
   reports. Unfortunately, most of the rest of the world has no APRS   
   stations. If there are Es paths the red plumes can be huge!"   
      
   For tropo predictions, check the Hepburn maps at   
   http://www.dxinfocentre.com/tropo.html. These maps are updated daily   
   at 1PM EST, I believe.  By using weather maps and this site you can   
   sometimes do your own tropo forecasts."   
      
   Ken says, for the last hour or so of reported contacts, check   
   http://www.dxmaps.com/spots/map.php?Lan=E&Frec=50&ML=M&Map=NA&DXC=N&HF=N&GL=N.   
   I checked conditions in Europe on 10 meters at 1200 UTC on September   
   7, and saw lots of tropo and sporadic-E propagation indicated.   
      
   Back on August 31, Jeff, N8II reported: "The bands have gone from   
   pretty punk to exciting in just a couple of days, no wonder with SFI   
   currently 135 and K1, lots of over the pole DX worked yesterday   
   including RI1FJ (Franz Josef land) for a new band country at 0045Z   
   on 12M CW, 1 hour after my sunset and about 03 hrs in FJL! More   
   details to follow. 15 was open 1/2 hr after sunrise to EX8MLE and   
   UK8 this AM."   
      
   Roland Anders, K3RA of Elkridge, Maryland reports, also from August   
   31: "That jump in the SSN really seemed to liven things up to Asia   
   on the bands here in MD-especially on 10 and 12. Wednesday night was   
   a precursor of things to come. 15 was open to JT, HL, YB, and   
   several JAs as late as 0225Z.   
      
   "Thursday morning I worked a few Asians on 20 at 1200Z or so, and at   
   1220Z I happened to see a huge number of spots on 10 meters by   
   Europeans. The 10 meter band map is usually pretty blank at that   
   hour. 12 was open, too, but that was not nearly so unusual as the 10   
   meter spots. So I tuned up to 10 and immediately started working   
   EUs, and ran 15 of them in about 30 minutes. Then I moved to 15 CW   
   at 1320Z and worked a couple of Chinese stations that were new   
   stations for me. After some more EUs, I moved to 15 SSB and worked   
   HS, two YBs and finished with 9N1AA at 1452Z.   
      
   "Friday morning, I got on 15 at 1200Z and worked some JAs, EX, a   
   couple of HS stations, China, VU, a couple of YBs and A7. I moved to   
   10 at 1310Z to work 5H3ME on CW, then to 12 for a good run of EUs.   
   Back to 10 at 1500Z to pick up YB4IR, then to 15 to work YB, JY, and   
   VU. At 1525Z I moved to 12 SSB and snagged XU7AAJ. That's several   
   hours after his sunset, a new band country for me. 12m was also good   
   for OD5ARMY on SSB and an Israeli mobile.   
      
   "Friday night at midnight on 15 I heard a strong JA working RX9 and   
   could hear both sides of QSO. So I called CQ and worked some JAs.   
      
   "Here on the east coast, I often find that when I tune 20 at 1200Z   
   and later, I find very little if any activity, but CQing over the   
   pole often produces JA and other Asians. So, if all you do is listen   
   and look for spots, you may be missing some good opportunities. Same   
   can be said for 17 meters, which is usually open to EU at that hour,   
   but Asians can be enticed to answer CQs. And look for those openings   
   over the pole on 10 and 12 mid-morning East Coast time--it's that   
   time of year."   
      
   Bob Foster, N9BGC of Waverly, Iowa wrote on September 2, "This past   
   week saw several solid DX openings from NE Iowa to Eastern Europe,   
   the Pacific and South America on 15 meters SSB. The band stayed open   
   well past sunset. My station is very basic - 100 watts into a ground   
   mounted Gap vertical. Legitimate 5-7 to 5-9 signals were sent to   
   Poland, Croatia, Hawaii, Brazil and Spain. Not exotic DX, but quite   
   consistent 4,000 to 5,000 miles. It was quite satisfying considering   
   my modest station. Normally, I have to rely on 20 M and 40 M CW for   
   such contacts."   
      
   Fred Laun, K3ZO sent comments about this year's All Asia Phone   
   contest. "Given that this contest is possibly the most affected by   
   solar effects since the beam headings from here to the area where   
   the maximum number of possible QSOs is located go right through the   
   north magnetic polar area, I thought it would be interesting to   
   compare my score this year to the score in last year's contest."   
      
   In 2011 with solar flux at 119, he had 96 contacts on 40, 93 on 20,   
   and 196 on 15, with a total of 385 QSOs and 70,455 points. In 2012   
   with solar flux at 145 he had 19 QSOs on 40, 81 on 20, 298 on 15 and   
   4 on 10 meters, total 402 QSOs, and a score of 81,606.   
      
   "The 15 meter numbers this year would have been even more lopsided   
   if I hadn't had to break off great runs twice on Friday night due to   
   equipment problems, and if I hadn't had to shut down almost   
   completely during the best hours to Japan Saturday night because of   
   thunderstorms. My 140 foot tower took a direct lightning hit at 9:45   
   Saturday night.   
      
   "The main difference between the two years was the existence of a   
   great opening to Japan on 15 Saturday morning between 1200 and 1400   
   UTC. This opening did not exist during last year's contest, when the   
   furthest east that 15 opened in the same time frame was to Thailand.   
   Unfortunately, the great Saturday opening this year did not repeat   
   itself Sunday morning because of a solar proton event which had the   
   effect of lowering the MUF over the pole in that direction. However   
   propagation to that area on 20 on Sunday morning was much better   
   than it had been on Saturday morning which gave me a chance to   
   fatten up my 20 meter numbers.  RU0AI registered a mind-boggling 45   
   dB over 9 on my S-meter during the Sunday morning run.   
      
   "The other difference of note was that I was able to make Asian QSOs   
   on 10 this year; not many -- one UA9, two HZs and an A6, but last   
   year I didn't have any. As always, I had no packet in the shack on   
   purpose so I missed some 10 meter stuff I'm sure. K3TW in Florida   
   reported hearing HS0ZJU on 10. Ken, KE3X piloted the N3HBX station   
   to much better numbers than mine. Congrats to Ken for a job well   
   done."   
      
   For a peek at the K3ZO antenna farm, go to   
   http://www.bing.com/maps/default.aspx?cp=38.81|-76.934&style=h&lvl=16&v=1,   
   and zoom in, then click on Aerial and Bird's Eye. You can drag the   
   image around, and also select views from four different images in   
   four directions on the compass rose in the upper right. Quite   
   impressive.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at,   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for August 30 through September 5 were 118, 144,   
   120, 108, 156, 150, and 105, with a mean of 128.7. 10.7 cm flux was   
   127.8, 130.5, 145.6, 142.3, 141.6, 137.6, and 132.7, with a mean of   
   136.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 3, 7, 12, 32, 13, and   
   28, with a mean of 14.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 3,   
   8, 14, 23, 14, and 24, with a mean of 12.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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