SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049   
   ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP50   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49  ARLP049   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 7, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP049   
   ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   We had some trouble getting the solar flux values this week, but   
   found a work-around. We normally use   
   ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/daily_flux_values/fluxtable.txt   
   but it didn't seem to work yesterday. But another route was   
   discovered that does work,   
   http://www.spaceweather.ca/data-donnee/sol_flux/sx-5-flux-eng.php.   
      
   It has the same data. We could use the NOAA site at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt, but we like getting   
   the data with one more digit of resolution direct from the   
   observatory in British Columbia.   
      
   Solar activity declined again this week. Average daily sunspot   
   numbers dropped from 78.9 to 61.1, and average daily solar flux   
   declined from 121 to 101.6.   
      
   The latest prediction from NOAA/USAF is for solar flux at 95 on   
   December 7, 100 on December 8-9, 105 on December 10, 110 on December   
   11-12, 115 on December 13-14, 135 on December 15-17, then 130, 125   
   and 120 on December 18-20, 115 on December 21-23, 110 on December   
   24-27, 100 on December 28-29, 105 and 115 on December 30-31, 125 on   
   January 1-2, 130 on January 3-7, and 135 on January 8-13.   
      
   The predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 7-8, 5 on December   
   9, 8 on December 10, 5 on December 11-14, 8 on December 15, 5 on   
   December 16-28, 8 on December 29-30, 5 on December 31 through   
   January 1-6, then 10, 8 and 5 on January 7-9, and 8 on January   
   10-11.   
      
   The above forecast is from Thursday, December 6, and is revised from   
   the one issued a day earlier, which appeared in the ARRL Letter. The   
   latest forecast has lower solar flux over the next few days with   
   slightly more active geomagnetic conditions. We would like to see   
   better conditions than currently forecast for the ARRL 10 Meter   
   Contest this weekend.   
      
   Recently I mentioned a spreadsheet I made to track changes in the   
   45-day solar flux forecast from NOAA/USAF. I am going to try to   
   share the spreadsheet with you, and keep it updated online. To see   
   the spreadsheet, go to   
   https://sheet.zoho.com/public/tadcook/noaa-usaf-flux-prediction-archive-xls-1.   
      
   Unfortunately, I have not quite figured out how to freeze the column   
   headings across the top and the left column too, but you can look at   
   the spreadsheet, download it and play with it. Note that the last   
   entry is for December 6, 2012.   
      
   If you go down the left column to that date, then go to the right to   
   the December 6 column you will see the actual solar flux for that   
   date. As you go up the December 6 column, you see all the past solar   
   flux predictions for December 6, and see how they have varied over   
   time. As you go to the right from December 6, you see numbers   
   corresponding to the dates in each column, and those are the flux   
   values as predicted on December 6, from the predictions at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html.   
      
   Last year on the Friday-Saturday-Sunday of the ARRL 10 Meter Contest   
   weekend (December 9-11, 2011), the solar flux was 143.5, 140 and   
   134.3, and planetary A index was 1, 6 and 4. This year predicted for   
   the three days of December 7-9 is a solar flux of 95, 100 and 100,   
   and planetary A index of 8, 8 and 5. Note that the contest lasts   
   only two days, but we include the day before also, as activity on   
   that date should affect contest conditions. We prefer to see higher   
   solar flux and a lower A index.   
      
   There is also the possibility of enhanced propagation from ionized   
   meteor trails. The Geminid shower this year peaks on December 13,   
   but the Geminid activity runs from December 4-17, so we may see 10   
   meter propagation enhanced somewhat by the early part of the shower.   
      
   Check http://www.arrl.org/10-meter for details on the contest.   
      
   As usual, we received a geomagnetic forecast from OK1HH. He predicts   
   quiet conditions December 7, mostly quiet December 8, quiet to   
   active December 9, active to disturbed December 10-11, quiet   
   December 12, quiet to unsettled December 13-14, quiet December   
   15-16, quiet to active December 17, active to disturbed December 18,   
   mostly quiet December 19, quiet to active December 20-21, mostly   
   quiet December 22, quiet to unsettled December 23, quiet December   
   24-27, quiet to active December 28, and mostly quiet December 29-30.   
      
   Let's look at some moving averages for sunspot numbers. We have   
   tracked a three-month moving average for quite some time now. The   
   highest activity in this cycle was during the peak in fall 2011,   
   when the three months centered on October 2011 had an average daily   
   sunspot number of 118.8, and the November 2011 centered average was   
   118.6.   
      
   Now that November has ended, we know the three month moving average   
   for September 1 through November 30. The averages for this year   
   centered on January through October were 83.3, 73.7, 71.2, 87.3,   
   91.5, 96.5, 91.9, 89.9, 81.2 and 82.3. The monthly averages of daily   
   sunspot numbers for August through November were 85.8, 84, 73.8 and   
   89.3.   
      
   Another thing to look at is the yearly average of sunspot numbers,   
   and 2012 doesn't look bad. The average annual sunspot numbers for   
   2008 through 2011 were 4.7, 5.1, 25.5 and 29.9, and the average for   
   2012 to date (through December 6) was 83.8, quite a jump from last   
   year's 29.9. We got 83.8 by summing all the daily sunspot numbers   
   from January 1, 2012 through December 6, which was 28,581, and   
   divided that by the number of days, which is 341.   
      
   Ken Miller, K6CTW sends us the link to the Australian Government   
   Radio and Space Weather Services site at   
   http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems. We've mentioned this site before,   
   but Ken points out some interesting features. Ken wrote, "One of   
   their features are HAP charts which are designed to indicate the   
   best frequency range, at that hour for communications between a   
   specified base and mobile within a nominated area.   
      
   "To access these, on the Left side menu bar, under Global HF, click   
   on HAP Charts.   
      
   "When the HAP Charts menu appears, click on Hourly HAP Charts, then   
   using the pull-down menu, select the center point nearest to your   
   station. When I'm home, I use Phoenix (even though I'm actually in   
   California). Then click on the Display button.   
      
   "The chart is very intuitive and the details of what it is   
   indicating are summarized below the chart.   
      
   "Lately, in the evenings, I have seen charts indicating RED which   
   show that the best communications for our traffic nets area would be   
   from 1-3 MHz. When that is indicated, signals have usually been very   
   degraded or even a total wash-out. The 'old school' saying is that   
   the band has gone 'long.'  These charts have been very accurate and   
   could benefit both NTS and DX operators alike."   
      
   Howard Lester, N7SO of Schuylerville, New York wrote on December 1,   
   "At 2145 UT today I worked RO9O in Asiatic Russia on 14.021 MHz CW.   
   He was a true 599 (with flutter - a polar path), and he gave me the   
   same (but of course, who knows, considering my 100 watts and dipole   
   antenna). Current conditions are Flux 102, K=2. The W6EL propagation   
   program, for those conditions, gives a prediction of 32 (signal   
   level) D, D being the '1 - 25% probability' category and with a   
   fairly low signal at that. The moral of the story is that it pays to   
   listen, or at least check http://www.dxwatch.com!"   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 29 through December 5 were 89, 67, 49,   
   43, 44, 58, and 78, with a mean of 61.1. 10.7 cm flux was 113.1,   
   110.6, 101.7, 97.7, 96.6, 96.2, and 95.5, with a mean of 101.6.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 2, 4, 7, 4, 3, and 2, with a   
   mean of 3.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 1, 3, 8, 3, 5   
   and 4, with a mean of 3.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   Gentlemens' agreements ratified by IARU regions 1 and 2 have   
   designated a global "center of activity" frequency  in  each   
   of  the  international  hf  bands.  THese are similar to the   
   concept for weak signal calling and other center of activity   
   frequencies.  Three of these have been ratified worldwide.   
      
   THese  center of activity frequencies are where stations can   
   go to render or obtain emergency assistance.   
      
   WHen casually operating or  contesting  on  hf  please  make   
   yourself  aware  of  these  frequencies,  and give them some   
   space. Remember that often stations with emergency needs are   
   not  those  utilizing  high  gain antennas and maximum legal   
   power.   
      
   TO find out more, visit 14300.net or IARU web resources.   
      
      
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