SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045   
   ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP45   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45  ARLP045   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 12, 2010   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP045   
   ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased over the past   
   week, with sunspot numbers up 7.4 points to 33.1 and solar flux up   
   2.1 points to 84.2.  Four new sunspot groups appeared since November   
   4.  For some reason NOAA is currently showing a sunspot number of   
   zero for Thursday, November 11, yet there are spots visible.  In   
   fact, the total sunspot area increased by 57% from November 10 to   
   11, and the sunspot number on November 10 was 55. On early Friday   
   morning a peek at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt   
   shows the zero sunspot number for yesterday, but perhaps by the time   
   you read this, it will be corrected.   
      
   The latest forecast shows predicted solar flux at 85 on November   
   12-13, 84 on November 14-15, and 83 on November 16-18.  Predicted   
   planetary index for November 12-21 is 10, 10, 8, 8, 7, 5, 5, 20, 15   
   and 10.   
      
   Last year Steve Nichols, G0KYA wrote the bulletin for us on October   
   30, 2009, and he has just published a free online book with G3NYK.   
   The title is "Understanding LF and HF Propagation," and you can   
   download it from Steve's blog at http://www.g0kya.blogspot.com/.   
      
   Don Kalinowski, NJ2E sent a link to a blog on the Aviation Week and   
   Space Technology web site about a new international initiative to   
   work on space weather issues.  You can read it at   
   http://snipurl.com/1ftp42.  In the article is a link to a series   
   from NASA explaining space weather.  See it at   
   http://tinyurl.com/2ak5g9f.   
      
   We got mail about ARRL CW Sweepstakes last weekend.  Don Lynch,   
   W4ZYT of Virginia Beach, Virginia wrote, "We operated from the Outer   
   Banks of North Carolina, and did well on 15 through 80 meters.  We   
   did not operate 160, and found 10 meters so unproductive that we   
   made no contacts there.  15 was surprisingly good during the day and   
   more productive than I expected.   
      
   "I found all the bands were long - I was working west coast stations   
   on 80 meters at 0600 UTC, and on 40, could easily work W6 and W7 and   
   KH6 stations, but had trouble connecting with New England and   
   Florida.   
      
   "Our group worked the VY1 as our first QSO and then missed the sweep   
   because of Nebraska."   
      
   Paul Mackanos, K2DB wrote, "I started out on 40 and it was the best   
   start we ever had at K2NNY. Band was great, we ran 40 then went to   
   80 and had the same conditions, GREAT, everything went well, super   
   rates, etc, until daylight on Sunday, then everything seemed to die   
   down.   
      
   "We could never get anything going on Sunday. Just limped along,   
   maybe we worked everyone over night on 80!"   
      
   Jim Jordan, K4QPL wrote, "I thought propagation was very 'normal'   
   for the time of year, with 80M on the East Coast being better than   
   average.  This was my first time QRP so I was a bit more sensitive   
   to 'softness' in prop. Really don't have time or memory to give a   
   blow by blow hourly report.   
      
   "80M- No weird going long as it sometimes does in winter and I heard   
   happened earlier in the week. On the other hand, with the storms   
   having moved out, QRN was low so weaker stations not masked in   
   noise. QRP was good for the entire east coast and to the Rockies and   
   I got several 'FB QRP SIG' comments. Antenna is an inverted V with   
   apex at about 60'. Occasional QSOs with west coast but generally   
   with the stations known to have good antennas and 'ears.'   
      
   "40M- For some reason 40 is never my best band despite it being a   
   'money band' for others. It performed about at par with a bit more   
   range into the west than 80 as the skip lengthened. But for sheer   
   numbers, 80 still came in better for me.   
      
   "20M also performed pretty much as expected. Good transcontinental   
   prop to help me fill in western and Canadian mults and S&P (search   
   and pounce) the ones I couldn't work on 80. Went long enough to also   
   get KH6 and KL7 mults. Hard to hold a run frequency there except way   
   high in the band.   
      
   "15M was surprisingly good and exhibited a lot of normal 20M   
   characteristics. As I only have a tribander for 10-15-20 I sometimes   
   put my second radio with a 40M dipole on 15 while running 20 and it   
   seemed to do as well as the tribander if not better for S&P.  Maybe   
   the higher angle was getting more refraction in target areas when   
   the band was perhaps actually longer. 15 also did well as a primary   
   band for a short time but didn't generate the same volume for me.   
   Tried a couple runs with both antennas but didn't seem to support   
   QRP very well.   
      
   "10M- Never went there. Flipped the Orion II to 10 every now and   
   then on Sunday afternoon and could tell from the display nothing was   
   happening."   
      
   Ted Saba, KN5O who operated W5RU wrote, "From W5-land near New   
   Orleans, we found 80M to be in great shape.  In fact, we made nearly   
   as many Qs on 80 as we did on 40M.  (I use a 40M moxon at 86ft and a   
   phased pair of 1/4-wave verticals on 80).  80 was good all over,   
   very low QRN.  We may have benefited more by moving to 80 sooner   
   than we did.   
      
   "Looking at the log, by the time we switched from 20m to 40m, 40 had   
   gone long. Normally we can work the close in sections, NFL, WCF,   
   SFL, AL and sometimes MS/AR with relative ease.  Not so this year.   
   Skip zone had to be a good 700+ miles from us.   
      
   "20m was its usual crowded self - it is where we normally start and   
   can run for about 3-4 hours,  we did so this year as usual.  I found   
   20m typical.   
      
   "15m is terrible for us. 1st skip zone is about 1300+ miles I would   
   guess.  Only good for AK, PAC, WA, OR, CA, AZ and a few Canadian   
   provinces - VY1, VY0, BC, AB and SK.  Occasionally we would hear the   
   far NE, but not consistently."   
      
   Tim Prosser, KT8K wrote, "20m and 40m went long fairly early, but   
   noise levels were fortunately fairly low on 80m at my location (SE   
   Mich) - about S7 on my Orion.  My K9AY loop (with new termination   
   resistor) did a fantastic job of reducing that to S1 while signals   
   only dropped to S5-7 - much easier on the ears.   
      
   "Propagation on 40m was a bit spotty, and was better as always while   
   I was in the gray line zone.   
      
   "80m was great and I got great signal reports from my 5 Watts and   
   wires in the trees as far away as Hawaii and LAX."   
      
   Connie Marshall, K5CM wrote, "Conditions were good in general, but   
   better the first day. Being in the center of the USA has both   
   advantage and disadvantages. It's an advantage on 80 meters where   
   conditions were very good Saturday night (the largest number of Qs   
   came on 80 with 538). It's a disadvantage on 15m, where skip was   
   just too long to work anything but the very edges of the East and   
   West coast and mainly just the West. Was hoping for a little Es to   
   help prop on 15 and 10 meters, but no luck this year. It's still a   
   little early for the winter time Es season, which as you know,   
   usually peaks in Dec/Jan.  40 meters was good with East coast   
   stations  being heard in the middle of the day. We probably should   
   have spent more time on 40.  20 meter prop was good but very   
   crowded, especially at the beginning of the contest. We still had a   
   good contest, setting a new Multi-op CW-SS record for Oklahoma."   
      
   Bob Norin, W7YAQ wrote, "I had not been on the air for two months   
   preceding the SS.  But managed to put in the full 24 hours in the CW   
   SS.  Running QRP, and having a 3-el SteppIR for 20-10, I was hoping   
   for a nice 10 meter opening, and evening openings on 20.  QRP on the   
   low bands is not always a lot of fun.   
      
   "Here are my observations by band:   
      
   "10 meters:  [3-el SteppIR at 70'] We had an opening Sunday morning   
   from Central Oregon to the east coast.  Signals were very good, but   
   there just wasn't much activity.  Between 1724 and 1814 UTC I worked   
   11 stations in MAR, QC, ON, ENY, WNY, MDC, EPA, VA, TN, and GA.   
      
   "15 meters:  [3-el SteppIR at 70'] Generally good conditions, better   
   than 2009 and 2008.   
      
   "20 meters:  [3-el SteppIR at 70'] Band closed at sunset both days.   
   No short skip to BC/AB/WA/CA/ID/MT/NV this year.   
      
   "40 meters:  [SteppIR trombone dipole at 70'] Good conditions   
   Saturday evening.  Seemed to close shortly after sunset Sunday.   
   (Maybe everybody just went to 80)   
      
   "80 meters:  [Inv vee at 65'] Seemed in great shape with signals   
   booming in from all over NA.  Made some east coast QSOs late   
   Saturday night.  Running QRP, however, I would prefer the loud   
   signals to only be from the western NA, as can distinguish which   
   ones I can work better.  If I were running 100 watts, I would have   
   loved 80 this weekend!   
      
   "I have operated the last 3 SS contests QRP and with same antennas."   
      
   Stu Mitchell, W7IY of Stafford, Virginia wrote, "I operated   
   unassisted QRP from VA again this year at W4NF's station. The bands   
   seemed in pretty good shape and matched the VOACAP predictions. I   
   started on 20M and had no problem working CA, WA and OR. Although,   
   20M seemed pretty quiet before the contest. It was hard to tell if   
   the solar activity was the culprit or people were just getting in a   
   last minute nap. 20M closed around night fall, so I moved to 40M.   
   Nothing unusual there, but it seemed like there were fewer people to   
   work. The band was quiet with no QSB.   
      
   "During the evening, I spent the vast majority of my time on 80M,   
   routinely checking 40M. Hawaii (0600Z on 40M) appeared on time and   
   was easy to work. No QRN or QSB on both bands. If a station was over   
   S5, I was able to work them without any problem at all. I was able   
   to run several times with good results.   
      
   "I experienced the typical doldrums during the day on the higher   
   bands. 15M opened for a bit to the TX, NM and CA. My first 15M QSO   
   was at 1542Z and my last was at 1755Z. I worked Alaska at 1700Z on   
   15M. No QSB on either 15 or 20. 10M never opened for me.   
      
   "Through the second diurnal shift, I made my way back to 80M through   
   40M. 40M seemed much quieter during the last few hours of the   
   contest, although I kept sweeping the band with my second radio   
   looking for ID. Finally, at 0139Z, I came across K0TO on 80M and   
   completed Worked All States. Didn't get a clean sweep. Missed MB,   
   NL, NWT. I heard MB and NWT, but the pileups were too big for my QRP   
   station."   
      
   Tim Kresky, AB0S wrote, "From Kansas, 20m, 40m, and 80m were good.   
   Very little noise on the low bands.  10m was dead.  15m had some   
   activity, but not enough for us to spend any useful time there.  I   
   suspect the skip was such on 15m that the coasts had a great time   
   talking to each other, but it was just a little too long for us to   
   hear most stations."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 4 through 10 were 34, 29, 43, 34, 36,   
   35, and 55, with a mean of 33.1. 10.7 cm flux was 79.2, 83, 88.6,   
   85, 83.7, 84.1 and 85.6 with a mean of 84.2. Estimated planetary A   
   indices were 3, 2, 1, 1, 3, 3 and 4 with a mean of 2.4. Estimated   
   mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1 and 3 with a mean of   
   1.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   ---   
                                   ========   
      
   IF you have questions or concerns regarding the accuracy   
   of information posted, or the opinions expressed, contact the content   
   originators directly.   All publications retransmitted as   
   fidonet echomail without alteration other than the removal of   
   email header and other control information which   
   is not part of the actual publication.   
      
   We invite you to use and support the ham-fdn!   
   The ham-fdn is coordinated by Mark LEwis at fidonet 1:3634/12.  Contact him   
   for further   
   information about ham-fdn file echoes.  Announcements of newly   
   hatched ham-fdn files can be seen in the echoes ham and ham_tech.   
      
   THe ham-fdn is distributed by the International FIlegate project.   
   Ham-fdn file echoes are available from major hubs.  Bbs users with an   
   interest in these file echoes should ask your sysop to carry them.   
      
   Users and sysops with materials appropriate for distribution   
   via the ham-fdn should contact the coordinator for submission   
   guidelines at the above shown address.  IF you have access to   
   shareware programs that would be useful to radio amateurs,   
   or other files which may be appropriate use the back channel   
   area to submit them.  IF you are not sure how to accomplish this   
   contact the fdn coordinator, or ask your local bbs sysop.   
      
      
   ---   
    * Origin: RRN BBS: Your fidonet ham radio connection! (1:116/901)