SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028   
   ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP28   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28  ARLP028   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  July 15, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP028   
   ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers this week were up 57 percent over the   
   previous seven days, rising from 41.6 to 65.6.  Average daily solar   
   flux rose just 3 points to 89.1.   
       
   There seem to be plenty of sunspots of late, but none have been   
   large, and so the sunspot number and solar flux are not as high as   
   in some previous months.   
       
   A new sunspot appeared on July 7, then three the next day on July 8,   
   then a new one each day on July 9, 10 and 11, and two more on July   
   13 and another two on July 14.  A coronal mass ejection on July 9   
   gave us some geomagnetic activity a couple of days later.   
       
   The current forecast shows the planetary A index on July 15-24 at 5,   
   5, 5, 8, 8, 12, 12, 8, 8 and 5.  Solar flux is predicted at 94 on   
   July 15-17, 92 on July 18-19, 90 on July 20-21, then 94, 90, 89, 87,   
   87, 89 and 88 on July 22-28.   
       
   Geophysical Institute Prague says look for quiet to unsettled   
   geomagnetic conditions on July 15, quiet July 16-17, unsettled July   
   18, unsettled to active July 19, unsettled July 20 and quiet to   
   unsettled July 21.   
       
   Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia sent in a report   
   on recent 6 meter activity.  He wrote, "The recent somewhat lower   
   solar flux is noticeable on the bands, late night openings to EU on   
   15 are curtailed and 17 meters is slow to open to anywhere in our   
   morning".   
       
   "I got up late today, July 8 to find a very good 6 meter opening to   
   Europe.  The first station heard was DK1DAX who rapidly faded down   
   followed by EA7KW (who is always there when the band is open), then   
   G8BCG who I managed to work.  Then the Mediterranean area really   
   started to come thru well around 1435z.  IS0GQX, F5PAU, CT1DVV,   
   CT1EWX, EA7RM, another F5, and ZB2FK (Gibraltar) was worked for a   
   new country."   
       
   "On Sunday July 3 I finally logged PJ6D around 2300z after hearing   
   them on FD for quite a stretch, but my weak signal could not be   
   heard there".   
       
   "Around June 29, SM5EDX was the only signal heard on 6 meters at   
   2115z besides a few direct signals on the East Coast calling him.   
   There have been quite a few 6 meter European openings into W1, W2,   
   southern W4 and the Midwest that did not extend into my area".   
       
   Thanks, Jeff!   
       
   Robert Elek, W3HKK of Johnstown, Ohio writes "Thursday July 7 around   
   2300z saw a nice 6 meter opening to Portugal with three strong (57   
   to 59) signals arriving in central Ohio from CT1's HZE/HZJ/FFU.   
   Signals were in and out for several hours centered on 2300z.  Nice   
   going guys!  Have a glass of Porto on me!"   
       
   "Then on Friday morning, July 8, it hit the fan in central Ohio!  I   
   worked CT1FFU and HZE again, stronger than the night before, and   
   then witnessed nearly all of western Europe coming thru, one by one,   
   building up out of the noise to around 55/559 and sometimes as in   
   the case of IS0GQX up to 59.  It seemed GQX was in there from around   
   1300z until the band quieted down around 1800z.  Kudos for an   
   amazing signal!  Meanwhile, I had fun working F8DBF, ON5HJS, 9H1BT,   
   EA7KW, all new countries for me, and a couple of Canadian   
   Maritimers.  But alas, the hoped for evening opening didn't   
   materialize in central Ohio, although I saw the Euro's were still on   
   but working 6's and 7's and 5's".   
       
   "Imagine all this DX with 100 watts to a 5 element Yagi towering TEN   
   FEET above the rear patio, 'equipped' with an Armstrong rotator!     
   Six is indeed The Magic Band.  This was the most widespread DX   
   opening I have seen in my two years on the band.  I heard stations   
   from England, Italy, and Russia as well.  Very cool opening!"   
       
   Thanks, Robert.  As the kids say, "Awesome!"   
       
   We get a lot of email about solar activity, including some from   
   non-hams curious about something they read in the news.  Some people   
   mention that in the same week they see articles claiming we're in   
   for some sort of dangerous solar maximum, but then they read about a   
   dearth of sunspots.  I ran across this at a NASA site, which reminds   
   me of some of the questions I get:   
   http://astrobiology.nasa.gov/ask-an-astrobiologist/question/?id=16490.   
      
   Another interesting piece is this one about a big solar event 11   
   years ago:   
   http://www.space.com/12278-bastille-day-solar-storm-anatomy.html.   
       
   Pat Moore, AL7L of Juneau, Alaska pointed out that perhaps the use   
   of the word "millennia" in the last bulletin was unintended, as   
   "millennia" is plural, while "millennium" is singular.   
       
   Dick Bingham, W7WKR, who used to live in my Seattle neighborhood now   
   lives way off the grid at Stehekin, Washington, reachable only by   
   boat or a very rugged mountain trail.  Check out his interesting   
   address in the lookup feature at http://www.arrl.org/ or at QRZ.com.   
   Dick sent an article and video from NASA about a dark solar   
   explosion that continues to baffle and fascinate over a month after   
   the event.  See and read about it at   
   http://science.nasa.gov/science-   
   news/science-at-nasa/2011/11jul_darkfireworks/.   
       
   Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW loves to DX TV and FM broadcasts in Tampa,   
   Florida, and reports some intense sporadic E propagation on July   
   11-12.  He writes, "On Monday, July 11 at 2310 UTC I was getting   
   traces of B/W video with occasional audio from a unidentified   
   Canadian TV-6 broadcaster via Sporadic-E that continued up until   
   0235 UTC (9:35 pm EDT)".   
       
   "I do not recall ever having Es all the way up on channel 6 (83.25   
   MHz video/87.75 MHz audio) this late in the evening from Canada".   
      
   "The next day, during the 1730 UTC time I heard one unidentified   
   Cuban TV-6 audio on 87.7 on the car radio.  Five minutes later I   
   tuned up to 107.7 with a reception of an unidentified Mexican   
   station.  Both stations had fluctuating signal strengths from   
   moderate to strong with a slow rate of fading".   
       
   "While remaining on 107.7 for the next hour I heard an advertisement   
   for the Alpena.com website for about one minute, then fading away.   
   Twenty-minutes later the signal came in with a moderate signal   
   strength at the best possible time giving its identification spot,   
   '107-7 The Bay'".   
       
   "The reception distance was 1,191 air miles from Alpena, Michigan to   
   Tampa, Florida.  That would place the Es plasma cloud overhead of   
   Rogersville, Tennessee".   
       
   Mike got a confirmation from the manager of the broadcast station   
   that indeed he had received WHSB on 107.7 MHz.  Mike mentioned that   
   he received the signal using the back-side of a cross-phased   
   multi-element antenna.   
       
   Joe Miller, KJ8O of Troy, Michigan writes about some curious   
   propagation he experienced. "For the past five years, I have worked   
   the IARU Championship and/or Field Day, and I have worked stations   
   on 20 meters that are in the 200-300 mile range as opposed to the   
   usual 600-700 mile or further first skip.  I have noticed this short   
   propagation only occurs in late June and early July.  The big   
   surprise for me this year was working AC8G in Dayton OH at 1515z on   
   Saturday, July 7 on the 15 meter band at a distance of 212 miles.  I   
   contacted him and he stated that he was using a tower of about 62   
   feet and a four element Yagi pointed towards Europe and running   
   about 900 watts.  On my end, I have a 5BTV and was running 100   
   watts.  His was a good solid signal, not the kind usually heard by   
   backscatter".  Joe wonders what was happening to enable this   
   propagation?   
      
   We ran this by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, who wrote "The time period   
   suggests sporadic E".   
      
   "We normally think of sporadic E on 6 meters and even on 10 meters.   
   We usually don't think of sporadic E extending down to the lower   
   frequencies.  But if the electron density is high enough to refract   
   6 meters, then it's high enough to refract lower frequencies like 15   
   meters and 20 meters".   
       
   "The limiting factor determining the effect of sporadic E on these   
   lower frequencies is the thickness and extent of the sporadic E   
   cloud.  It has to be thick enough and wide enough (at least several   
   wavelengths) to allow a gradual bending (refraction) to occur.  More   
   than likely the thickness is the true critical parameter.  Perhaps   
   the thickness and extent was sufficient to allow short skip on 15   
   meters on your path.  And with enough electrons to refract 50 MHz (I   
   saw many 6 meter spots over the weekend), it's also possible that   
   reflection could have been involved on 15 meters, which says the   
   cloud would not have to be as thick nor as wide".   
       
   Carl looked at the Millstone Hill (Massachusetts) ionogram for July   
   7 at 1515 UTC.  "Of course it's not near Joe's path, but it's the   
   closest we have!  Note that sporadic E was occurring, and the   
   ordinary wave sporadic E critical frequency was reported as 4.28 MHz   
   and the extraordinary wave sporadic E critical frequency (the green   
   echoes at the same virtual height) was up to 5 MHz.  These critical   
   frequencies couldn't support high-angle 15 meter propagation, but we   
   just don't know the magnitude and extent of sporadic E on Joe's   
   specific path.  All we can say is sporadic E was occurring in   
   Massachusetts, and 6 meter spots suggest it was also occurring   
   elsewhere".   
       
   "Other possibilities are an F region anomaly, but not too likely as   
   the summer months are generally quiet and have the lowest F region   
   electron densities (for what it's worth, the sparse Millstone Hill   
   data says high-angle F region propagation over your path couldn't be   
   supported, either).  As for a geomagnetic disturbance as suggested   
   by your friend, I see that the A and K indices were not elevated on   
   July 7, so that would be tough to couple to your QSO.  Another   
   possibility could be extremely long ground wave (I can easily work   
   Toledo and Dayton on 15 meters from Ft Wayne) but the signals would   
   be weak.  A last possibility would be some kind of scatter mode, but   
   again with weak signals".   
      
   Thanks, Carl.  Great analysis!   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
       
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of   
   the numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of   
   past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
       
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
       
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
       
   Sunspot numbers for July 7 through 13 were 42, 65, 55, 67, 72, 62,   
   and 96, with a mean of 65.6.  10.7 cm flux was 85.5, 85.8, 85.6,   
   90.7, 90.1, 91.7, and 94.6, with a mean of 89.1.  Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 6, 8, 12, 12, 13, 8, and 8, with a mean of   
   9.6.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 6, 10, 8, 10, 7, and   
   6, with a mean of 7.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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