SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044   
   ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP45   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44  ARLP044   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 2, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP044   
   ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity quieted this week. Average daily sunspot numbers were   
   down nearly 37 points to 58.4. Average daily solar flux declined 27   
   points to 116.9.   
      
   Predicted solar flux values are 100 for November 2-3, 105 on   
   November 4-5, 110 on November 6-9, 120 on November 10-11, 125 on   
   November 12-13, 130 on November 14, and peaking at 135 on November   
   15-20, then 130, 125 and 120 on November 21-23, and 115 on November   
   24-26. It then drops to a minimum of 100 on November 29 through   
   December 1, then back to a high of 135 by mid-December.   
      
   The predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on November 2-3, 5 on   
   November 4-5, 7 on November 6-7, then 10, 12 and 15 on November   
   8-10, 5 on November 11 through December 4, and 10, 20 and 15 again   
   on December 5-7, followed by a quiet 5 again through December 16.   
      
   A coronal mass ejection hit Earth's magnetic field at 1530 UTC on   
   October 31. This sparked aurora and contributed to the planetary and   
   mid-latitude A index of 17 on November 1, with the college A index   
   (in Alaska) at a stormy 48. The activity is subsiding, with a   
   declining A index through the weekend.   
      
   This will be important to domestic HF contesters, as the ARRL   
   November CW Sweepstakes is this weekend. Conditions should be pretty   
   good for the contest.   
      
   The geomagnetic forecast from OK1HH says quiet to unsettled activity   
   November 2-3, mostly quiet November 4, quiet to active November 5-6,   
   quiet to unsettled November 7-8, quiet to active November 9, active   
   to disturbed November 10, quiet to active November 11, mostly quiet   
   November 12-14, quiet November 15-18,.mostly quiet November 19,   
   quiet November 20-22, and mostly quiet November 23-24.   
      
   Last weekend (October 27-28) was the SSB portion of the CQ World   
   Wide DX Contest. The CW weekend is right after Thanksgiving,   
   November 24-25. Jeff Hartley, N8II in West Virginia reports:  "I   
   operated 10 meters single band in the contest, but the band was   
   nearly closed as expected at the start, so I migrated down for a few   
   20 meter Qs. 20 was open nearly world wide for the first 2 hours   
   with excellent conditions over the pole from just west of JA all the   
   way across to northern Europe; there were also a few very   
   southwestern Europeans workable and the Middle East was loud as   
   usual at that time of day. I worked many Russians including all call   
   areas. RT4RO was S9+25-30 dB. BA, YE2, A7, VU, EY were all logged   
   along with some very loud Africans (C5A, D4C, 5Z4EE). VK1CC called   
   in via long path around 0100z, unusual to work that path so late.   
   This was probably the best 20 meters has ever been at the contest   
   start in my many years of contesting.   
      
   "The solar flux averaged around 120 over the weekend with Saturday   
   being slightly better. This allowed excellent conditions to all of   
   Europe and fairly long openings to Russia including zone 17 UA9s.   
   But propagation was very limited to central Asia (worked two UNs   
   with good signals Sunday) and the Far East (none logged) beyond JA;   
   conditions were better to there last year. Good European conditions   
   and activity allowed me to make over 2,150 QSOs with 1,000 in the   
   log by 1715Z Saturday!  There was activity up to above 28.8 MHz   
   during the peak time to Europe. Even stations with poor antennas and   
   running QRP were easy to work for hours. Conditions to the south   
   Pacific were rather poor (worse than expected) except from   
   2300-2330z the last day; mid afternoon to late afternoon. Sunday was   
   pretty much dead that direction except for KH6. KH2/KH0 stations   
   were extremely loud from 2100z until 2300z, much louder than the   
   JAs, about 10 stations were logged total from those 2 countries."   
      
   Steve Brunt, K6AAB of Fresno, California reports, "Conditions this   
   weekend were fabulous!  10 meters was open until 0200z on the West   
   Coast. Could have worked 10 single band, but didn't.  15 meters was   
   also great with worldwide openings. 20 meters was open, but odd   
   propagation. I could hear lots of Eastern Europeans, but couldn't   
   work them. I completely missed Zone 15 on 20."   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK in Kansas reports, "Sunday afternoon there were   
   great conditions in the CQ WW SSB contest to the Far East. Many   
   Japanese stations were 20 over S9 on 10 meters just before sunset   
   Sunday afternoon. I worked AH2, AH0, Japan, China, and Hawaii with   
   100 watts and a CB mag-mount whip. Most stations worked on first or   
   second call."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at,   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 25 through 31 were 58, 71, 59, 55, 75,   
   56, and 35, with a mean of 58.4. 10.7 cm flux was 130, 130.7, 121.7,   
   117, 108.4, 106.3, and 104.2, with a mean of 116.9. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, and 5, with a mean of   
   3.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 4, 3, 3, 2, 1, and 5,   
   with a mean of 3.   
   NNNN   
      
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