SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042   
   ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP43   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42  ARLP042   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 19, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP042   
   ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Sunspot activity rose this week, with average daily sunspot numbers   
   up over 45 points to 97, and average daily solar flux rising over 24   
   points to 129.2. October 12-14 had high geomagnetic activity, with a   
   planetary A index at 12, 38 and 19, college A index (in Alaska) at   
   18, 70 and 33, and mid-latitude A index (measured in Virginia) at   
   12, 28 and 20. On October 13 solar wind spilled through a gap in our   
   Earth's magnetosphere, unsettling conditions here. Aurora was seen   
   across the northern tier states in the United States.   
      
   The latest prediction is for solar flux peaking at 140 (not at 150   
   as predicted until October 12, and not 135 as reported in the ARRL   
   Letter for October 18) for October 19-21, 135 and 130 on October   
   22-23, 125 on October 24-26, 130 on October 27-28, then 125, 120,   
   115, 110, 105 and 100 on October 29 through November 3, and 105 on   
   November 4-5, peaking again at 140 on November 12-14.   
      
   The predicted planetary A index is 6 on October 19, 5 and 8 on   
   October 20-21, 5 on October 22 through November 7, then 10, 20, 15,   
   12, 8, 8, 10 and 8 on November 8-15, and 5 on November 16 through   
   the end of November and the first few days of December.   
      
   OK1HH predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet October 19-22,   
   mostly quiet October 23-24, quiet October 25-26, quiet to active   
   October 27, active to disturbed October 28, quiet October 29, quiet   
   to unsettled October 30, quiet October 31, mostly quiet November 1,   
   quiet to unsettled November 2, mostly quiet November 3, active to   
   disturbed November 4-5, quiet to active November 6, quiet to   
   unsettled November 7-8, quiet to active November 9, and active to   
   disturbed November 10.   
      
   Recently I've made a spreadsheet for myself to track changes in the   
   45-day solar flux forecast. This is an interesting exercise in   
   observing the changes to the forecast over time. Dates along the   
   vertical access are the dates of each of the forecasts, and along   
   the horizontal are the dates that each of the values correspond to.   
   Each cell has a flux value.   
      
   So looking at October 13, 2012, tracking the changes to the flux   
   values for that date from September 27 to October 12, we see it   
   start out at 115 in the October 13 column on September 27, then   
   change to 105 on October 6, then 100 on October 7-9, 115 on October   
   10-11, 125 on October 12, then on October 13 the actual value is   
   recorded, 124.9. We end up with smoothly changing groups of flux   
   values, finally ending at the real number on the bottom. The   
   spreadsheet keeps progressing from upper left toward lower right. As   
   these are 45-day forecasts, the series of numbers is always 45 days   
   wide.   
      
   In last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP041 we mentioned   
   John King, EI2HVB of Letterkenny, Ireland. This week he gave a   
   little more detail. He worked W1AW at 1927 UTC on October 10 on 20   
   meter CW running two watts with an MFJ Cub 9320.   
      
   This week he wrote: "I have a sloping 'V' dipole, the front plane of   
   which is firing due east, and best DX to the east so far is a 559   
   into Perm in eastern Russia (2000 miles from my QTH). I regularly   
   get 579 to 599 all over Eastern Europe. I cannot seem to work Spain,   
   Portugal or North Africa, so there is no side lobe to the south of   
   my antenna. However, there seems to be a side lobe firing north, as   
   I recently got a 589 into Iceland. On October 10 when I worked W1AW   
   the Northern Lights were seen from the north of Ireland later that   
   night, and had also been visible the previous night. I suspect my   
   signal was going over the North Pole rather than across the   
   Atlantic."   
      
   Of course without a directional antenna, it is difficult to know,   
   although we can assume W1AW was using a directional antenna from   
   their end. Following last week's bulletin, Jim Parkinson, W9JEF of   
   Tontitown, Arkansas commented: "When we talk about radio   
   propagation, most of us assume the path to be a straight line (in   
   azimuth). But according to KL7AJ, in QST articles, that path is not   
   always 'straight' (not that there's anything wrong with that).   
      
   "As Eric points out - and many other hams such as myself have   
   experienced - the aurora and other polar effects can bend or reflect   
   a signal. Assuming that the 'straight' path did not exist at the   
   time, would the portion of signal from John's dipole that reached   
   the aurora region not have been bent back eastward toward W1AW (with   
   reciprocity)?"   
      
   By the way, a little point of interest, Jim's aunt Ethelyn Parkinson   
   wrote the 1968 book, "Today I Am a Ham."   
      
   John Jones, N0JK wrote: "There was a nice 'off season' October Es   
   opening on 50 MHz Sunday October 14. The band appeared to be open   
   over 6 hours for many across the eastern USA to the Midwest and   
   southern Canada.   
      
   "Here in Kansas, the W3HH/b EL89 (3.25 W, omni antenna) and the   
   W4CHA/b EL88 6 meter beacons were solid copy on my attic dipole   
   around 0315 UTC Oct. 15."   
      
   Joe Dawson, K4WLS of Atlanta, Georgia wrote on October 18: "I have   
   made contacts in France, Belgium, Latvia, Greece, Croatia, Morocco,   
   Mexico, Cuba, Cayman Islands and Italy in the past 3 days during my   
   lunch hour using a slinky antenna and 50 watts on 10 meters. Similar   
   DX activity on 15 and 17 meters as well, but not to the extent of 10   
   meters. The barn door is open on 10 meters during the day but shuts   
   down cold around 5pm eastern."   
      
   Thanks Joe!  And thanks for mentioning the slinky antenna, which I   
   have not heard of for a long time. A web search though shows there   
   is still quite a bit of interest in this antenna.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at,   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 11 through 17 were 82, 89, 85, 97, 119,   
   107, and 100, with a mean of 97. 10.7 cm flux was 116.6, 121.9,   
   124.9, 132.1, 136.8, 137, and 135, with a mean of 129.2. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 6, 12, 38, 19, 8, 5, and 7, with a mean of   
   13.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 12, 28, 20, 7, 5, and   
   6, with a mean of 11.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   ---   
                                   ========   
      
   IF you have questions or concerns regarding the accuracy   
   of information posted, or the opinions expressed, contact the content   
   originators directly.   All publications retransmitted as   
   fidonet echomail without alteration other than the removal of   
   email header and other control information which   
   is not part of the actual publication.   
      
   We invite you to use and support the ham-fdn!   
   The ham-fdn is coordinated by Mark LEwis at fidonet 1:3634/12.  Contact him   
   for further   
   information about ham-fdn file echoes.  Announcements of newly   
   hatched ham-fdn files can be seen in the echoes ham and ham_tech.   
      
   THe ham-fdn is distributed by the International FIlegate project.   
   Ham-fdn file echoes are available from major hubs.  Bbs users with an   
   interest in these file echoes should ask your sysop to carry them.   
      
   Users and sysops with materials appropriate for distribution   
   via the ham-fdn should contact the coordinator for submission   
   guidelines at the above shown address.  IF you have access to   
   shareware programs that would be useful to radio amateurs,   
   or other files which may be appropriate use the back channel   
   area to submit them.  IF you are not sure how to accomplish this   
   contact the fdn coordinator, or ask your local bbs sysop.   
      
      
   ---   
    * Origin: RRN BBS: Your fidonet ham radio connection! (1:116/901)