SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP039   
   ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP40   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 39  ARLP039   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  September 28, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP039   
   ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers rose this week from 56 to 81.3, and   
   average daily solar flux increased from 101.4 to 129.7. As reported   
   in the ARRL Letter on Thursday, September 27, the increase was   
   expected to continue over the next few days, with solar flux peaking   
   at 150 on September 28-29, but what a difference a single day makes.   
      
   You can see the radical change in forecasts by going to   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html and selecting   
   the September 26 prediction, then compare it to the September 27   
   prediction.  Instead of a solar flux on September 28 to October 1 of   
   150, 150, 145 and 145, the latest prediction for those days is 130,   
   130, 125 and 125. Each day shows a 20 point lower solar flux than   
   the earlier prediction.   
      
   So as it is now, from the September 27 prediction, we see solar flux   
   of 130 on September 28-29, 125 on September 30 through October 2,   
   120 on October 3-4, 130 on October 5, 125 on October 6-7, 120 on   
   October 8, 115 on October 9-10, 120 on October 11, 115 on October   
   12-13, and 120 on October 14-15. It is then expected to rise to a   
   peak of 150 on October 20 and 150 again on October 25-26, with the   
   average solar flux on October 21-24 around 141.   
      
   The average planetary A index declined from 7.4 last week (September   
   13-19) to 4.3 this week (September 20-26). The predicted planetary A   
   index values are 5 on every day through October 4, 8 on October 5, 5   
   on October 6-11, then 10 and 12 on October 12-13, and 5 on October   
   14-16, followed by 10 on October 17, 8 on October 18-20, and 5 on   
   October 21-25.   
      
   As always, we get a different perspective from the Czech Propagation   
   Interest Group and Petr Kolman, OK1MGW.  They see quiet to unsettled   
   geomagnetic conditions on September 28-29, quiet to active on   
   September 30 and October 1, active to disturbed on October 2, quiet   
   to active on October 3, quiet to unsettled October 4-5, mostly quiet   
   October 6-8, then quiet to unsettled October 9-12, mostly quiet   
   October 13-14, quiet to unsettled October 15, and quiet to active on   
   October 16-17.   
      
   John Parnell, K7HV has enjoyed working DX with low power, and then   
   documenting each new country worked on video, for what he refers to   
   as YouTube DXCC. Check out his videos at   
   http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL677A093C75EB5C55. John also   
   reports from K7SS some great conditions on 10 meters last weekend   
   (September 22-23). Check John's QRZ.com listing at   
   http://www.qrz.com/db/k7hv.   
      
   We also heard of great 12 meter conditions last weekend from Chris   
   Callicott, G4DJJ of Northumberland in England. Chris reports:   
   "Between 1810-1850 UTC on September 22 I worked 15 stations across   
   IL, IN, MN, OH and WI. On September 23 from 1600-1620 UTC the band   
   opened from UK to central and SW USA, giving easy SSB QSOs with 35   
   stations in AZ, CA, NV, WA, IL, IN, OH, MI, WI, MN, and Mexico. All   
   loaded up to LoTW of course!"   
      
   A little solar activity helps, and of course we have transitioned to   
   Fall conditions, which makes a big difference. The Autumnal Equinox   
   was last weekend on September 22 at 1449 UTC.   
      
   Angel Santana-Diaz, WP3GW of Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico reports, "I   
   suppose you had a big report on 10 meters this weekend! Saturday   
   September 22 in the afternoon was really busy on 10. Got to work   
   around 1534 UTC V5/DL3ZAD and at 1556 UTC VP9LP. Later at 1951 and   
   2001 UTC 7Z1TT, EA9BW and EA7QC, who told me it was around 10pm his   
   local time. The band was teaming with life! Then on Monday, got to   
   work JX9JKA on 12m at 1915 UTC, which is a new DXCC entity for me.   
   On other bands worked ZB2B, T77NM, 8P6CF and OX3KQ. And the bands   
   still are interesting, hope they are great for the CQ WW SSB."   
      
   John Kelley, K4WY of Fairfax Station, Virginia sent a tip about an   
   article claiming that we actually reached a sunspot cycle peak last   
   year, but that was just for the Sun's northern hemisphere.  The peak   
   for the southern hemisphere may not occur until 2014.  Although the   
   article talks about the disconnect between the two hemispheres   
   suggesting a grand minima in our future, note the comment from   
   Michael Proctor, a solar physicist at the University of Cambridge,   
   who is not convinced that this will happen. "This present cycle is   
   similar to the weak one that ended in 1913, and that was followed by   
   a strong cycle," he says.   
      
   Read the article at,   
   http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528843.700-solar-maximum   
   oh-you-just-mis   
   sed-it.html.   
      
   John Campbell, K4NFE of Huntsville, Alabama also gave us a tip about   
   this article.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for September 20 through 26 were 68, 74, 46, 57, 90,   
   121, and 113, with a mean of 81.3. 10.7 cm flux was 117.4, 116.9,   
   124.5, 133.6, 136.6, 139.8, and 139.2, with a mean of 129.7.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 5, 4, 2, 2, 2, and 6, with a   
   mean of 4.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 10, 5, 3, 1, 2,   
   2, and 6, with a mean of 4.1.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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