SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP037   
   ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP38   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37  ARLP037   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  September 14, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP037   
   ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity retreated this week.  Average daily sunspot numbers   
   were off nearly 46 points, or about 35%, to 83.1.  Average daily   
   solar flux declined 18 points to 118.9.   
      
   Geomagnetic conditions were quieter, with the planetary and   
   mid-latitude A index most days in the single digits.  Average   
   planetary A index declined from 14.1 to 6.6.   
      
   The predicted daily solar flux is 100 on September 14-15, 95 on   
   September 16-18, 98 on September 19, then 100, 95 and 100 on   
   September 20-22, 110 on September 23-24, then 115, 125 and 130 on   
   September 25-27, 140 on September 28 through October 1, 135 on   
   October 2, and 130 on October 3-5.   
      
   The Predicted planetary A index on September 14-17 is 7, 10, 15, and   
   10, then 5 on September 18-19, 8 on September 20-23, 5 on September   
   24-28, 10 on September 29, 5 on September 30 through October 2, 10   
   on October 3, and 8 on October 4-5.   
      
   F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group predicts   
   quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions September 14-15, active to   
   disturbed September 16, mostly quiet September 17, quiet on   
   September 18, quiet to unsettled September 19-22, mostly quiet   
   September 23, quiet September 24-25, quiet to unsettled September   
   26-27, quiet September 28-29, quiet to active September 30 through   
   October 1, active to disturbed October 2, and quiet to active   
   October 3.   
      
   In VHF news, Rich Zwirko, K1HTV in Amissville, Virginia wrote to us   
   on September 7, just before the ARRL VHF Contest last weekend: "I   
   was pleasantly surprised to hear 6 meters open via TEP to South   
   America early Thursday evening, September 6. It started around 2240Z   
   and lasted about an hour at my FM18ap QTH in VA. In addition to   
   working PY1RO, PY1NX and PY2XB on CW I also heard but did not work   
   LU9EHF and PY1NS weakly on SSB. There is still some magic in the   
   'Magic Band.'"   
      
   TEP refers to Trans-Equatorial Propagation, a special kind of   
   propagation across the equator.  A good description from the   
   Australian Government Radio and Space Weather Services can be   
   downloaded at   
   http://www.ips.gov.au/Category/Educational/Other%20Topics/Radio%   
   0Communication/   
   Transequatorial.pdf.   
      
   Just before we put this bulletin to bed, K1HTV sent this: "Here is   
   some additional info. During last weekend's ARRL VHF contest I heard   
   3 stations in Brazil on 6 meters. I worked PY5EW on SSB and PY2XB on   
   CW. Also heard PY1RO weakly on SSB but couldn't work him. The 50 MHz   
   TEP path between my FM18 Virginia QTH and the PY stations, in the   
   GG46 and GG66 grids, started around 0005Z September 10 and lasted   
   about 1 hour. Unfortunately no other South American stations were   
   heard. About 24 hours earlier in the contest, starting around 000Z   
   on the September 9, we had a 90 minute Es opening to W5 land,   
   working stations in OK, MS, LA and TX. Again between 1330 and 1500Z   
   Sunday there was a 6M ES opening from here to Florida. So, as you   
   can see, the 'Magic Band' is still not dead!"   
      
   Rich hopes for a double-peaked Cycle 24, and that the solar activity   
   will be enough to send the MUF on many paths above 50 MHz.  Of   
   course, in that case, instead of just sporadic-E we would see   
   conventional F-layer ionospheric propagation.   
      
   John Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas wrote: "The jump in solar   
   activity coupled with some sporadic-E on 6 meters created   
   opportunities for some great propagation in the ARRL September VHF   
   QSO Party (September 8-10, 2012).   
      
   "Both Saturday and Sunday had extended openings from New England,   
   mid-Atlantic, Gulf Coast, Arizona and California to South America   
   and the South Pacific. On Sunday, KA9CFD EN40 spotted PY2XB at 0054   
   UTC September 10. And what may have been direct F2 from Florida to   
   Ecuador Sunday occurred that afternoon.   
      
   "Some Es Saturday evening from Kansas to Georgia, when W3GMT EM92,   
   WA4NJP EM84 and W4IMD EM84 were loud around 0035 UTC September 8."   
      
   John closed by saying he also hopes for a double-peaked Cycle 24.   
   More about that in comments from K9LA further down.   
      
   Jeff Hartley, N8II in West Virginia wrote on September 9: "Today was   
   a pretty good day on 15 and 10 meters with the solar flux only in   
   the 120s, definitely better than Saturday (September 8) with only   
   South America on 10 meters. At 1451Z, I logged XV4Y (Viet Nam) on 15   
   CW who was running a EU pile up, I could not get thru until he   
   worked a N2 then started a CQ NA only. Then I tuned 10 meters   
   looking for some EU in the WAE (Worked All Europe) contest and heard   
   a voice with polar flutter giving a contest report to an inaudible   
   EU. I swung the Yagi north and 9W2VVH (Western Malaysia class B   
   license) answered my SSB CQ at 1458Z. He gradually got stronger and   
   went up to S7, running 100 watts, once he beamed to USA. After a few   
   more CQs 9W2WWW answered and was equally as strong. 9W2AXV and   
   9W2NMX also answered CQs. It was in the 11:00 PM hour local time in   
   9W2 when the band peaked.   
      
   "No other Asians were worked, but after a dog walking break and   
   lunch around 1700 to 1815Z, 10 opened to EU with some weak and some   
   loud signals from central and western EU, but no propagation to   
   Russia or northern EU. I worked 50 stations in 14 EU countries in   
   the WAE contest, quite late in the day.   
      
   "NH8S was about S6 on 10 phone and CW around 10 minutes past sunset   
   sunset was around 2325Z at Jeff's QTH and logged fairly easily,   
   then worked him on 12 SSB at 2348Z about S5."   
      
   K9LA, Carl Luetzelschwab, has some interesting comments about last   
   Fall not being the first peak of a double-peaked solar cycle.  Last   
   week we mentioned that the NASA estimate has move the peak of Cycle   
   24 from Spring to Fall 2013, with smoothed sunspot numbers higher   
   than earlier forecasts.   
      
   Carl wrote, "The smoothed data (whether it be the smoothed sunspot   
   number or the smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux) does not indicate a Cycle   
   24 peak in the Fall of 2011.   
      
   "What happened was the Sun was very active for a couple months, and   
   this was fortuitously in the Fall months when the MUF is the highest   
   in the Northern hemisphere. The MUF reached over 28 MHz, which gave   
   us great worldwide 10-Meter openings in the CQ World Wide DX   
   contests and the ARRL 10-Meter contest. After that solar activity   
   waned, the MUF fell, and 10-Meters wasn't as good for the ARRL DX   
   and CQ WPX contests in the less-than-optimum months.   
      
   "Historically a true peak would be followed by a definite dip in the   
   smoothed indices prior to reaching another peak. Cycles 22 and 23   
   exhibited this classical behavior. But Cycle 24 just had a   
   leveling-off (as have other solar cycles on their ascent) before   
   continuing its ascent.   
      
   "So we're still waiting for the first peak of Cycle 24. Whether it   
   has a second peak is anyone's guess."   
      
   And finally, for an interesting video visit to the McMath-Pierce   
   Solar Telescope at Kitt Peak, check it out at,   
   http://www.myfoxphoenix.com/story/19508434/2012/09/11/is-earth-i   
   -danger-of-sola   
   r-flares.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at,   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for September 6 through 12 were 112, 110, 70, 87,   
   62, 73, and 68, with a mean of 83.1. 10.7 cm flux was 128, 133.4,   
   128.6, 123, 111.3, 105.1, and 102.6, with a mean of 118.9. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 11, 9, 8, 5, 4, 3, and 6, with a mean of   
   6.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 12, 8, 7, 6, 4, 3, and 5,   
   with a mean of 6.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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