SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034   
   ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP35   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34  ARLP034   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  August 24, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP034   
   ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Weak solar activity continues.  Average daily sunspot numbers for   
   the seven days of August 16-22 were down 23 points, or 30 percent,   
   to 54.6.  Average daily solar flux dropped a little over 16 percent,   
   or 18.7 points, to 96.  These figures offer a comparison between   
   August 9-15 and the latest reporting period, August 16-22.   
       
   Solar flux is expected to rise above 100 soon, with predicted flux   
   values from NOAA/USAF at 100 on August 24-25, 105 on August 26-27,   
   110 on August 28-29, 115 on August 30, and peaking at 130 on August   
   31 and September 1.  The prediction shows September 2 with a flux   
   value of 125, then 120 on September 3-5, 115 on September 6-8, 110   
   on September 9, 105 on September 10, then dipping below 100 on   
   September 12-15.  The next peak is expected in the three days   
   following the Autumnal Equinox, with flux values at 135 on September   
   23-25.   
       
   Predicted planetary A index values are 5 on August 24-25, then 10   
   and 8 on August 26-27, then 5 again on August 28 through September   
   7, and 8 on September 8-9, then 5 on September 10-14, then 12 on   
   September 15-16, 8 on September 17-18, and 5 again through the end   
   of September.   
       
   OK1HH predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet to unsettled on   
   August 24-25, quiet to active on August 26, mostly quiet on August   
   27-28, active to disturbed on August 29, quiet on August 30-31,   
   mostly quiet on September 1, quiet to unsettled September 2-4, quiet   
   on September 5-7, mostly quiet on September 8-9, quiet to active   
   September 10, quiet on September 11, quiet to unsettled September   
   12, quiet on September 13, and quiet to unsettled September 14-15.   
       
   Spaceweather.com reports "the Sun's x-ray output has nearly   
   flatlined."  Look at readings from 12 years ago, in the summer of   
   2000:    
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/2000_DSD.txt   
       
   Now compare those numbers with recent x-ray activity:    
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt   
       
   The daily x-ray background flux is shown in the fourth column to the   
   right of the daily sunspot number.  Here is the x-ray flux shown in   
   a graph for the past few days:  http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html   
       
   The letters and numbers in the x-ray flux column in the previous two   
   pages correspond to the values on the right side of the graph on the   
   last page.  Looking back in March, May, July and September of 2000   
   you can see higher numbers indicated by the letter C, but nothing at   
   that level recently.  The background x-ray flux is a good indicator   
   for the level of energy from the sun charging the ionosphere.  The   
   more the ionosphere is energized, the higher the MUF or Maximum   
   Usable Frequency is in general, although the MUF varies considerably   
   according to time of day, season, and the end-points of the path   
   under consideration.   
       
   Larry Godek, W0OGH of Gilbert, Arizona wrote on August 23: "WOW!  Is   
   it ever all over the place today.  To start with we had a short   
   opening on 6 meters down TG9 (Guatemala) way.  Then I went up to 20   
   meters to put in some time doing the WSPR thing.  2 watts to a 4   
   element Yagi up 30 feet is all I use on 20.  In the time frame after   
   my transmit cycle I had reports from LA9, VE6, YV4, VK2, KL1 plus   
   other places around the USA.  The beam was pointed to about 45   
   degrees (northeast).  What good is a beam doing you if your signal   
   is going every which way?  Watching the WSPR map showed a lot of   
   good long haul signals."   
       
   (The WSPRnet map Larry speaks of is at   
   http://wsprnet.org/drupal/wsprnet/map.  Note you can select which   
   band you want to observe in a drop-down below the map).   
       
   "When I worked the TG9 station on 6 meters, the beam (which is atop   
   the tower with the 20 meter beam) was also pointed off to the   
   northeast.  That's where his signal was strongest."   
       
   "Working 40 meters today around 2 PM (Arizona time) the band got   
   really noisy with QRN.  Signals were still good though and then the   
   QRN went away.  Since then signal strength has swung all over the   
   place.  Not slow drawn out QSB but fairly quick acting changes.   
   This morning on 40 we had real short propagation to the southeast   
   part of the state, no more than 150 miles.  Then it swung around to   
   where normal east-west signals became more prominent and the fellows   
   southeast of here were out of the picture.  Nothing really special   
   about the K, A or SFI index at the time."   
       
   "I'd suggest folks take a look at that WSPRnet map when they go   
   looking for DX.  While it doesn't show every country on the air, you   
   can at least get an idea of where propagation is good toward.  Nice   
   map features as well."   
       
   Thanks, Larry!   
       
   Jon Jones, N0JK had a comment in response to Randy W7TJ in last   
   week's bulletin.  Jon wrote, "My opinion is solar cycle 24 will   
   probably be a two-peak cycle.  First peak was fall of 2011.  The   
   second peak hopefully spring of 2013.  Agree with Randy W7TJ --   
   enjoy the propagation this fall and spring of 2013.  This may be as   
   good as it gets on 10 meters and 6 meters for many, many years."   
       
   John Van Dalen, N7AME of Everett, Washington wrote: "I have to agree   
   with Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane.  The DX activity for the Seattle   
   area has been dismal.  I only have small windows to operate right   
   now and they are 0200-0400z each evening and most weekends.  I look   
   at the spotting sites on the internet and Europe and Russia are   
   having a great time as is most of the east coast.  Oh for a solar   
   cycle like 22 or 23."   
       
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
       
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of   
   the numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of   
   past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
       
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
       
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
       
   Sunspot numbers for August 16 through 22 were 34, 42, 56, 69, 52,   
   64, and 65, with a mean of 54.6.  10.7 cm flux was 98.3, 95.1, 97,   
   96.2, 96.2, 94.2, and 94.8, with a mean of 96.  Estimated planetary   
   A indices were 11, 10, 11, 12, 12, 7, and 6, with a mean of 9.9.   
   Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 10, 11, 11, 10, 11, 7, and 6   
   with a mean of 9.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   Providing   emergency   communications  assistance  to  your   
   neighbors and community isn't just a good thing to do,  it's   
   the first and foremost activity recognized in the U.s. rules   
   governing amateur radio in 47 CFR section 97.1. IF you enjoy   
   amateur  radio  remember  that  this  is  an  obligation you   
   tacitly agreed to when you acquired your license.   
      
      
      
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