SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044   
   ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP44   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44  ARLP044   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 5, 2010   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP044   
   ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Last week we promised more from Stu Phillips, K6TU about propagation   
   and WSPR.  Stu put together an excellent presentation with his   
   observations.  You can see it along with the comments by Carl   
   Luetzelschwab, K9LA at   
   http://1vc.typepad.com/ethergeist/2010/11/wspr-hf-propagation.html.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers declined again this week, this time by   
   nearly 25 points to 25.7, about half what it was last week.  Last   
   week's average was down about five points from the week before, when   
   it was 55.6.   
      
   Look for good conditions this weekend in the ARRL CW Sweepstakes.   
   Predicted planetary A index for November 5-7 is 5, then 8 on   
   November 8-9, and then 5 for the foreseeable future on November 10   
   and beyond, until November 18-23, when we may see a minor   
   geomagnetic disturbance.  For those days, predicted planetary A   
   index is 8, 20, 15, 10, 8 and 7.  Predicted solar flux is 82 for   
   each of the next nine days, followed by 85 for about twelve days.   
   The ARRL SSB Sweepstakes falls during that active period, on   
   November 20-21.   
      
   That forecast above changes from day-to-day.  You can always get the   
   latest update at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html each day after   
   2100z.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions November 5-9,   
   and unsettled November 10-11.   
      
   The latest three-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers shows   
   a steady rise, with the trailing three-month average at the end of   
   June through October at 16.2, 20.4, 23.2, 28.9 and 33.  The average   
   daily sunspot number for October was 35, slightly higher than the   
   trailing three-month average, which is a slightly positive sign of   
   an upward trend.   
      
   For conditions in last weekend's CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest, we   
   heard from a number of participants, many operating from   
   well-outfitted contest stations using large antennas, relative to   
   what most of us have available.   
      
   First from Jeff, N8II in West Virginia, who reports there was a   
   wonderful 10-meter opening to Europe the weekend before the contest.   
      
   "The WW was not for the faint of heart here with booming signals   
   from EU on 20 and 15 with humongous band crowding. Saturday I   
   operated from W3LPL on 15M and we worked nothing deeper into Asia   
   than JA in the evening, not even HL, but the morning was loads of Qs   
   into EU including northern EU with EU Russia right on the edge of   
   the opening. We did have a nice run of VKs and ZLs around 2330-0015Z   
   after the JAs faded out. Sunday I trolled around from home with 15   
   absolutely packed with EU signals including two Europeans trying to   
   run on the same frequency in several spots. 10 never opened well to   
   EU, but around 1545Z-1620Z Sunday came to life working ST2AR, 5R8X,   
   5N7M, MW1LCR (first EU), GW9T, MI0M, GI4SJA, EI7JQ, and about 3-4   
   Gs. Earlier C91M and FY5KE were in on 10M, but never hear later.   
   There was a very good opening to the south with many loud LUs and   
   PYs on 10 starting before 18Z and lasting until about 2130Z, with   
   closest stations worked being KP2M and two NP2s along with NP3O. 20M   
   was great during the day, but rapidly declined around 24Z each day   
   with SA barely workable in the first hour."   
      
   Art, VE3UTT/W1AJT operated from 125 miles northeast of Toronto. He   
   writes, "I think that you know that 15m was excellent with long   
   openings even at 43 degrees North.  20M was open late here Friday to   
   0100 and was good both Saturday and Sunday.  40m was noisy both   
   nights.  40M is usually a strong band for me with 3el at 100 ft but   
   a little more difficult this contest.  10M was not as good as early   
   in the week when it was pretty much omnidirectional.  During the WW   
   it was open shorter and mostly North - South with short openings to   
   my East/Southeast."   
      
   Doug, K1DG in New Hampshire reports "10M was a tease...it 'almost'   
   opened to Europe. I worked a half dozen stations in Italy and   
   Germany (and one in the Azores). It was quite good both days to   
   South America and the Caribbean. 15 and 20M were both excellent. 40   
   was good, but a bit noisy. 80 and 160 were down from last year, and   
   fairly noisy both nights."   
      
   Dan, KB0EO in Minnesota reports, "We had unusually good propagation   
   for the CQWW contest this past weekend - good for Minnesota, that   
   is. 20 meters and 15 meters had terrific all day openings world wide   
   with contacts made to all continents. It was interesting to be on   
   all day Saturday and Sunday and watch as the propagation moved from   
   east to west. I was also surprised to have a very strong 10 meter   
   opening midday on Saturday to South America - 10 meters has been   
   pretty dead lately. The opening lasted for about 3 hours and allowed   
   for contacts from Chile to Venezuela. 40 meters was pretty good   
   Friday night into Europe and Africa and solid Saturday morning to   
   Oceania, including numerous contacts with VK, ZL, and JA stations.   
   The flip side was 80 meters had very little activity here - only   
   contacts into Canada and a few into the Caribbean."   
      
   Bud, AA3B in Pennsylvania reports, "Conditions were very exciting. I   
   had my best personal results in CQ WW SSB on 160M.  It was probably   
   the result of a new transmit antenna, but I thought the conditions   
   were good. I thought 80M was awful from here to Europe.  I struggled   
   with every EU QSO.  I did have a relative easy time working Zone 29,   
   30 and 31 from here on Sunday morning. Forty seemed typical.  A   
   highlight was a fantastic opening at my Sunday sunrise to Asia.  JA   
   and JT was S9 here - I've never experienced signals so strong. 20M   
   was very nice.  Europe was very loud after around 10Z and hung into   
   there until 22Z.  Conditions to Asia and Oceania were also better   
   than I remember in recent years. 15M was my money band.  It opened   
   here to Europe around 12Z and was great until about 18Z both days.   
   There were also nice conditions to Asia and Oceania both afternoons.   
   10M was very exciting and frustrating.  North South propagation was   
   wonderful between 18Z and 20Z both days.  I could hear some   
   Europeans and even worked a few, but conditions were not real   
   productive."   
      
   Fred, KH7Y on the big island of Hawaii operated 15 meters only, and   
   reports, "The best in years!  First hour at a 300 QSO pr hr rate to   
   north America at the same time working CU and Europe with S9   
   signals.  Late afternoons worked many far east like A65, J28, 4X, EY   
   along with JA, JT. etc.  Early evening ZS/VU/HS/XU etc.  0600 to   
   0800 UTC has long path to Europe each evening of the contest 100s of   
   EUs even OZ and OH and OX at S9+ for the big guns and S5 for the 100   
   watt guys.  Fantastic to say the least.  Ended up with 3.1M score   
   3152 QSOs 108 countries and 37 zones for a 24 hour operation.   
   Station a IC-7800 and K-3, AL-1500 and 1X 4 element M2 at 110 feet   
   and 8 element M2 LP at 100 feet.   I have been also working 12   
   meters LP in the evening to EU same as last year.   We are 1400 feet   
   above the ocean and at the far southern end of the Big island of   
   Hawaii."   
      
   Rich, NN3W in Virginia reported, "Conditions were decent.  I think   
   the increased SFI has taken its toll on the low bands to an extent.   
   80 and 160 didn't have the deep openings that I've seen in the past.   
   40 was also a bit shorter but I think that there is a benefit in   
   that the increase in SFI has clearly affected the MUF in that we did   
   not have the typical EU 7.0 MHz blackout from 0100-0400z that we   
   have experienced over the past few years.   
      
   "20 was pretty good.  Hard to judge with the QRM.  The usual   
   openings.   
      
   "15 was pretty good.  Openings into EU for a substantial part of the   
   day starting as early as 1130z.  I heard some EUs as late as 2200 or   
   2300z.  The Pacific opening was good to VK, and ZL with some strong   
   JAs on Sunday (stronger than on Saturday).   
      
   "10 was interesting. It was disappointing to see so many packet   
   spots early in the week on 10 with solid openings and to have the   
   door shut by Thursday and Friday.  I know we lost one sunspot group   
   and group 1117 was quickly rotating out of view.  We had the   
   standard trans-eq propagation and north-south starting late morning   
   and lasting into the early evening on Saturday which I caught and   
   worked out a bit.  However, I apparently completely missed a good   
   north-south opening on Saturday afternoon (2100z) based on what   
   YN2AA told me on Sunday morning and I was determined not to miss it   
   again.  Thus, I pressed a third radio into service on Sunday and   
   just parked it on 28450 to see what I could hear.  Around 1530z   
   noise levels started to pick up and I could hear W3LPL moving around   
   and working stuff.  I followed suit and first found 4B2S working W6s   
   (which I could hear very clearly).  I worked him and then a VE.  I   
   then spun the beam north to work more VEs and found instead an   
   opening to the Mediterranean - IT9s, IG9s, and EA8s.  I then heard   
   MI0M and worked him.  Decided to set up shop and run.  It was   
   clearly some spotlight propagation as I was working GMs, GWs, Gs,   
   EIs, and GIs.  A second path opened up to Africa which yielded   
   ST2AR, a 5R8 and a ZS.   
      
   "The opening fizzled by about 1700 and I was stuck working   
   north-south again - lots of LUs, PYs, CEs, CXs.  The opening   
   broadened to cover most of the Caribbean and was far enough north to   
   allow me to work a KP2 - although I had to beam pretty much due   
   south to land that.   
      
   "I think that if we had about 8 more points of SFI, 10 would have   
   been nuts.  But alas!"   
      
   Thanks, everyone.   
      
   And finally, take a look at http://tinyurl.com/2v5n7gy for an   
   interesting new highly detailed solar image.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 28 through November 3 were 27, 24, 32,   
   32, 30, 17, and 18, with a mean of 25.7. 10.7 cm flux was 86.4,   
   85.7, 84.8, 81.2, 79.1, 78.9 and 78.5 with a mean of 82.1. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2 and 4 with a mean of 2.7.   
   Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 2, 4, 2, 1 and 2 with a   
   mean of 2.1.   
   NNNN   
      
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