SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027   
   ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP28   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27  ARLP027   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  July 6, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP027   
   ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity jumped way up this week, with average daily sunspot   
   numbers increasing by nearly 92 points to 118.1.  Average daily   
   solar flux went to 138.5 from 92.8 the week before.  One new sunspot   
   group appeared on June 29, another on July 1, and two more on July   
   4.   
       
   Geomagnetic activity this week was concentrated on June 30 through   
   July 2, and the causes were the usual suspects, solar flares and   
   solar wind spewing from coronal holes.  One unusual aspect was that   
   the mid-latitude A index, measured in Virginia, was actually higher   
   on July 3-4 than the planetary A index, which is usually higher.   
   The planetary A index is made up of an weighted aggregate of   
   estimated K index data from multiple geomagnetic observatories.   
       
   The outlook for the near term has changed since the forecast that   
   was presented on Thursday in the ARRL Letter.  The solar flux is   
   higher, and the higher geomagnetic activity is because of an M-Class   
   solar flare on July 4.   
       
   The forecast shows increasing activity over the next couple of days,   
   with solar flux at 165 on July 6-7, 160 and 155 on July 8-9, 145 on   
   July 10, 140 on July 11-12, then 130, 125, 115 and 110 on July   
   13-16, and 105 and 100 on July 17-18.  Solar flux is expected to dip   
   below 100 on July 19-22.  Solar flux is expected to rise to 140 on   
   July 30 through August 1, dip again, and then peak at 145 on August   
   7.   
       
   Planetary A index is expected at 8, 12, 22, 18, 8 and 7 on July   
   6-11, and 5 on July 12-26, followed by another active period with   
   planetary A index at 20 on July 27-28, 15 on July 29-30, and 8 on   
   July 31 through August 1.  A index should go quiet down to 5 over   
   the next couple of weeks, except for a reading of 8 on August 4.   
       
   Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group predicts   
   the geomagnetic field will be quiet to unsettled July 6-7, quiet to   
   active on July 8, unsettled to active July 9, mostly quiet on July   
   10-12, unsettled to active July 13-15, mostly quiet on July 16-18,   
   and quiet to unsettled on July 19-21.   
       
   The Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic   
   Disturbance Warning at 2328 UTC on July 5.  They predicted quiet to   
   unsettled conditions July 6, quiet to unsettled conditions with   
   active to minor storm periods late in the UTC day on July 7, and   
   unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm periods on   
   July 8.   
       
   This alert comes from a mail list offered by the Australian   
   Government Bureau of Meteorology.  You can see the email lists   
   offered at http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ and example on   
   subscribing at   
   http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-geo-warning.  This is for   
   the Geophysical Warning email list, but notice that on the listinfo   
   page at the first URL that the text string to the left of the   
   Geophysical Warning description is ips-geo-warning, which matches   
   the end of the second URL above.  Just substitute the appropriate   
   string of characters in that URL for any other lists you want to   
   subscribe to.   
       
   As June is now over, we can look at some monthly numbers and 3-month   
   moving averages.  For the 3-month periods centered on January   
   through May 2012, the average daily sunspot numbers were 83.3, 73.7,   
   71.2, 87.3 and 91.5.  Keep in mind that the 3-month average centered   
   on May is an arithmetic average of all daily sunspot numbers from   
   April 1 through June 30.   
       
   If we look at just the monthly sunspot number averages for September   
   2011 through June 2012, they are 106.4, 123.6, 133.1, 106.4, 91.4,   
   50.1, 78, 84.5, 99.4 and 90.1.   
       
   That period last fall when sunspot numbers were so high was unusual,   
   or at least we hadn't seen activity such as that in a long time.  It   
   was eight years earlier, in November 2003 when the monthly average   
   of daily sunspot numbers was over 100 previous to September 2011.   
   In November 2003 the average daily sunspot number was 103, and in   
   October 2003 it was 118.9.  It hadn't passed the November 2011   
   average of 133.1 since 9 years ago when it was 132.8 in July, 2003.   
   On July 20, 2003 the daily sunspot number was 224.   
       
   Go to http://spaceweather.com/ and in the Archives drop-downs toward   
   the upper-right, set it for July 21, 2003.  Then click the Back and   
   Forward links toward the upper right and see all the sunspot   
   activity as it moves across the sun.  If there seems to be a one-off   
   problem with the sunspot numbers in the spaceweather.com archive, it   
   displays the previous day's sunspot number because the date has   
   changed to the next UTC day by the time the daily sunspot number is   
   updated.  You can check it against the daily sunspot numbers in our   
   bulletin at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP030/2003   
   to see what I mean.   
       
   Space.com ran an article on a recent solar flare.  Read it at   
   http://www.space.com/16400-solar-flare-sun-fireworks.html.   
       
   Also, NASA commented yesterday:   
   http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News070512-M6.1flare.html   
       
   Following last week's reports, another Field Day report came in on   
   July 3 from Billy Bagwell, KE5WLH of the Greyhound Amateur Radio   
   Club at Eastern New Mexico University in Portales, New Mexico.   
   Billy wrote, "K5R, the special event station celebrating 100 years   
   of New Mexico statehood had three radios on 80, 40, 20, and 15   
   meters.  We made plenty of contacts on all bands.  80 got better   
   here after 9:00 PM local time and was great most of the night with   
   times of noise and fading.  We think this was due to sun   
   event/magnetic activity.  20 and 40 were hot as we expected.  15   
   meters started slow at noon and moved with the Sun from East to West   
   until sunset when it seemed to fade away.  On Sunday at sunrise 15   
   meters came back hard and moved with the Sun as expected.  We had   
   our stations set up in the Roosevelt County Sheriffs Office EOC, and   
   all involved had a great time!"   
       
   On June 30, Bob Leo, W7LR of Bozeman, Montana wrote about a "giant 6   
   meter opening yesterday morning, the best that I have ever heard in   
   75 years of hamming.  The band was full of distant DX.  I even   
   worked Israel, Poland, Estonia and Svalbard with 100 watts, all new   
   ones for me between 1300z to 1500z when the band folded.  Today it   
   is as dead as a fence post."   
       
   Bob was born in 1921 and was on the famous Hallicrafters expedition   
   to Africa in 1948.  Check out his bio at http://www.qrz.com/db/w7lr,   
   which of course requires a free account and login.   
       
   Joe, CT1HZE of Portugal (IM57nh) reports "June 30 was definitely an   
   historic day for 6 meter multi-hop Es.  Already from 0430z observers   
   in Finland received FM broadcast stations from Russia on 70 MHz   
   indicating a MUF greater than 110 MHz at high latitudes of up to 70   
   degrees N."   
       
   "These Es clouds shifted westerly with the sun and at about 1300z a   
   spectacular 6 meter opening started when the automatic keyer from   
   NN7J (CN85, Beavercreek, Oregon) was heard simultaneously by G0JHC,   
   CT1HZE and stations in Germany.  In the following 6 hours Pacific   
   Northwest stations from W6, W7, VE7, VE6 and VE5 were able to work   
   hundreds of QSOs with many countries in Western, Central, and   
   Eastern Europe."   
       
   "Highlights were QSOs between JW7QIA and W7 (OR) and W5 (TX)   
   stations and W7MEM and Israel (10700km).  Even W7GJ who stated for   
   years that he would never work EU on terrestrial modes was able to   
   work 9 QSOs with EU into G, SP, F and DL.  CT1HZE was able to work   
   25 stations from the Pacific Northwest, after waiting for more then   
   a decade for such an opening.  Best DX was VE7DAY CO70 and WB8VLC   
   CN84 who used 35W and a 5 el. only.  Several QSOs were even made on   
   SSB."   
       
   "Due to the early local time on the West coast probably many   
   stations missed the first hours of the opening and later on some had   
   to go to work, of course.  I would consider this as a multihop Es   
   propagation event with high MUF (over 70 MHz) on huge parts of the   
   paths and probably more hops than necessary for the distance, i.e. 5   
   or 6 hops for the 8000 to 9000 km paths considering observed   
   elevated angles with which the signals were received."   
       
   Thanks, Joe, and Bob.  What an opening!   
       
   Kevin Lahaie, K7ZS of Hillsboro, Oregon wrote on June 29, "Out of   
   the blue Europe opens this morning on 6 meters in a big way!  I just   
   worked DL, F, GM, SM, SP, ON, IT9 and OZ on 6 meter CW.  Yahoo!"   
       
   Apparently the opening may have favored the northwest and not the   
   southwest.  I hope he wasn't so discouraged that he missed the   
   opening, but early on June 29, Lance Wilson, NR7N of Scottsdale,   
   Arizona wrote: "I have been on 6 meters for fifty years and I must   
   say that the E-season in the Southwest has been disappointing.  We   
   have had a few good openings this year to the East Coast but nothing   
   like previous years.  International DX is non-existent.  I keep   
   watching VHFdx.info reports on extensive East Coast to Europe   
   openings (as well as extensive U.S. openings for them as well) while   
   we on the other side of the country go empty handed."   
       
   "While working Europe from the west normally requires F2 it appears   
   that something else may be at play here.  Day after day of seeing   
   the left-hand lower quarter of the U.S. virtually blank makes me   
   wonder what could be going on.  Openings, when they occur, are   
   mainly to the northwest with some also to the middle of the country.   
   Even our normal pipeline to Texas appears to be down."   
       
   Regarding conversion of Command sets to SSB, a topic mentioned in   
   recent bulletins, Ray Soifer, W2RS of Green Valley, Arizona wrote:   
   "The W2EWL conversion didn't exactly convert a Command set to SSB,   
   it made it into a VFO to use with an SSB exciter.  In the 1950s I   
   had a Central Electronics 20A exciter and a converted BC-458 VFO.   
   The 20A generated SSB (upper sideband) at 9 MHz.  Mixing that with   
   the 5 MHz output of the BC-458 produced USB on 20 meters or LSB on   
   80."   
       
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
       
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of   
   the numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of   
   past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
       
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
       
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
       
   Sunspot numbers for June 28 through July 4 were 73, 97, 90, 137,   
   165, 136, and 129, with a mean of 118.1. 10.7 cm flux was 119.7,   
   117.4, 124, 133.4, 165.9, 145.8 and 163.2, with a mean of 138.5.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 22, 19, 19, 10, and 9, with   
   a mean of 12.9.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 6, 21, 20,   
   18, 11, and 11, with a mean of 13.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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