SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026   
   ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP27   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  June 29, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP026   
   ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Sunspot activity continued to drop until early this week.  Average   
   daily sunspot numbers were 26.3, down over 58 points from last   
   week's numbers.  Average daily solar flux declined to 92.8, down   
   over 33 points from last week's average.   
       
   The weekly sunspot number average has declined since the May 31   
   through June 6 period, when it was 130.4, followed by 116.1 the next   
   week, 84.6 the next and 26.3 this week.   
       
   In next week's bulletin we will have the latest 3-month moving   
   average of daily sunspot numbers, for April-May-June, and it looks   
   like it will be higher than the previous 3-month average,   
   March-April-May.  Also, yesterday was day number 180 for 2012, and   
   sunspot numbers are running higher this year.  The average sunspot   
   number over those 180 days is 82.4.  Previous years 2003-2011 had   
   yearly sunspot number averages of 109.2, 68.6, 48.9, 26.1, 12.8,   
   4.7, 5.1, 25.5 and 29.9, so 82.4 is quite a jump.   
       
   In last week's bulletin ARLP025, we reported the average daily   
   sunspot number as 87, but it was really 84.6.  This is because we   
   reported what may have been a preliminary sunspot number of 46 for   
   June 20, but the sunspot number for that date was 29, recorded at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt.   
       
   Geomagnetic conditions over the past week were quiet.  Average   
   planetary A index was 5.7, down from 12.6 last week, 9 the week   
   before, and 13.4 before that.  The quiet A index for this week was   
   exactly as it was on the week of May 24-30, 5.7.   
       
   The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA is from June 28, and it differs   
   very little from the June 27 forecast used in this week's ARRL   
   Letter.  It shows geomagnetic activity peaking on June 30 through   
   July 3, probably from a coronal hole spewing solar wind.  There is   
   also a thirty-percent chance of M-class solar flares today.   
       
   Predicted planetary A index for June 29-30 is 10 and 18, followed by   
   15 on July 1-3, 8 on July 4, 5 on July 5-7, 8 on July 8-9, and 5 on   
   July 10-25, and then on July 26-31, 10, 18, 15, 15, 15 and 8.  This   
   is an echo of the activity this week, based on the 27.5 day rotation   
   of our Sun relative to Earth.   
       
   The predicted solar flux is 115 on June 29-30, 120 and 125 on July   
   1-2, 130 on July 3-5, 135 and 140 on July 6-7, 135 on July 8-9, 130   
   on July 10-11, 125 on July 12-13, then 120, 115, 110 and 105 on July   
   14-17.  Solar flux may dip below 100 around July 19 and rise above   
   100 after July 28.   But that is a long way out, and difficult to   
   predict.   
       
   OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group predicts quiet to   
   unsettled geomagnetic conditions on June 29, quiet to active June   
   30, active July 1-3, quiet to unsettled July 4-7, quiet to active   
   July 8-9, and mostly quiet on July 10-12.   
       
   Scott Woelm, WX0V of Fridley, Minnesota commented on the recent lack   
   of sunspots, and may have discovered a correlation of some sort.  He   
   wrote, "I have found the reason for the recent decline in sunspots!   
   My Dad, David Woelm, W0ELM, just got a new radio."  Good thinking!   
   He also wrote, "For those interested, I have some images of the   
   recent Annular Eclipse in May, and the Venus Transit in June, on my   
   web site:   
       
   http://bluelightpix.com/images/2012-images/june-1-5-moon-and-venus   
       
   http://bluelightpix.com/images/2012-images/may-2012-eclipse   
       
   The second link has a great shot of the Annular Eclipse that was   
   taken in Texas by Bob Adams, KC0JJ, of Crystal, Minnesota."   
       
   Conditions were pretty good for 2012 Field Day last weekend, meaning   
   there was some solar activity, and geomagnetic conditions were nice   
   and quiet.  Some past Field Days didn't have it so good.   
       
   At http://wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/kp/index.html you can download   
   planetary K and A indices all the way back to 1932, and with a   
   perpetual calendar you can find the fourth full weekend in June for   
   any year.  1988 ARRL Field Day on June 25-26 looks particularly bad,   
   and so does June 23-24, 1984.  Either may have been the year I was   
   out with the Western Washington DX Club, and a sudden ionospheric   
   disturbance hit late Saturday morning, making all receivers appear   
   dead.  You can see by downloading the data for 1988 that the K index   
   hit 4 and 5 on Saturday morning, then conditions recovered into the   
   evening, only to have a repeat on Sunday morning, a double-whammy.   
       
   Bill Mader, K8TE, president of the Albuquerque DX Association sent a   
   report on the W5UR Field Day operation at Torrance County Park in   
   Edgewood, New Mexico:   
       
   "Conditions were generally very good for FD excluding 6 and 10   
   meters.  Our 10 meter CW station made just one contact and 6 meters   
   made just 48 contacts with the majority during an opening to   
   California Saturday evening.  Propagation for both was disappointing   
   compared with previous years."   
       
   "15 and 20 made up the bulk of the SSB and three CW stations QSOs   
   and were hot!  We ran 20 well into the night and started again early   
   in the morning.  Our GOTA operators ran stations on both 20 and 15   
   for hours in a row.  40 was good and we used 75 and 80 to advantage   
   after running out of new ones on 40."   
       
   "Overall, Old' Sol helped this year, rather than hindering us.   
   Getting up dipoles from 45 to 60 feet high took advantage of good   
   propagation as did our A4S at 40 feet.  We seldom had to search and   
   pounce keeping our QSO rates up.  Our last hour on 15 meters in the   
   SSB tent produced 99 QSOs thanks to all three components:  good   
   propagation and antenna plus an excellent operator.  We're looking   
   forward to FD 2013, after we clean the desert dust off everything.   
   Our preliminary QSO estimate is 5,100 and with lots of CW plus bonus   
   points 2012 may be our best scoring FD ever."   
       
   Gabor Horvath, VE7JH reported on the Cowichan Valley Amateur Radio   
   Society operation (VE7CVA) from Duncan, British Columbia, on   
   Vancouver Island:   
       
   "20 meters was open till about midnight.  We had a great run on 15   
   meters, 6-10 PM.  10 meters barely popped open, I think we made less   
   than 10 QSOs.  40 meters seemed to be real good with action starting   
   at about 7PM till dawn.  80 meters did not produce much long   
   distance stuff, but was fairly quiet and we had many contacts out to   
   about 2000 miles."   
       
   Walt Aulenbacher, WA5AU reported on the Hays/Caldwell Amateur Radio   
   Club KE5LOT operation from San Marcos, Texas.  "We found conditions   
   on 15 meters to be very good (lots of contacts) and of course also   
   on 20 meters, but 10 meters and 6 meters not great.  We made some   
   contacts on 10 meters and 6 meters despite conditions."   
       
   Jed Petrovich, AD7KG of the Utah DX Association reported on the K7UM   
   operation, just east of Fairview, Utah in the mountains at 9,000   
   feet.  "We operated three stations for the entire 24 hours.  We only   
   made two contacts on 10 meters.  On Saturday, it didn't appear there   
   was much activity on 15 meters.  We checked this with a P3   
   panadapter and our 15 meter station was getting few responses to his   
   CQs.  The bulk of our nearly 3400 contacts (including dupes) were on   
   20 and 40 meters, both CW and SSB.  On Sunday morning, we were still   
   working 20 and 40.  However, I switched over to 15 CW just after   
   10:00 AM MDT and found a lot of activity.  I had some good runs   
   going for nearly two hours until the end of the event.  One of the   
   other stations was also working 15 SSB during the same time frame   
   Sunday morning.  However, he didn't do quite as well.  N1MM reported   
   my run rates around 90 per hour, the SSB station was about 40 per   
   hour.  During the same time frame, the 20 meter phone op was going   
   strong with run rates over 150 per hour."   
       
   "We did have an antenna (dipole, up about 60 feet) for 80 meters,   
   but the band seemed very noisy.  Hence, very few contacts were made   
   on 75 meter phone."   
       
   "All in all, propagation seemed fairly good.  Last year, for   
   example, one of our phone ops made 160 contacts on 10 meters during   
   the last 2 hours of the event.  We periodically checked 10 meters,   
   but didn't find much going on."   
       
   Thanks, Jed!   
       
   Kevin Lahaie, K7ZS of Hillsboro, Oregon wrote:  "VERY interesting   
   band conditions.  In a word, 10 meters was a big ZERO, 20 meter   
   paths were very atypical, just never really opened up like you would   
   expect.  But, the big surprise was 15 METERS.  It was open to the   
   East Coast at the opening bell, and it stayed open to the EAST COAST   
   all day, until around 10 PM.  A little north south, but just an   
   amazing, solid long skip that defied time of day!  We made 950   
   contacts on that band, 200 more than 20 meters!"   
       
   "Overall I don't think propagation was very good, but the real   
   anomaly to me was the solid and long endurance 15 meter opening to   
   the east coast.  I will be curious if east coast stations were able   
   to work each other with the long skip?"   
       
   W5BCR, the Bosque County Amateur Radio Club, operated from Clifton,   
   Texas.  Danny Rymer, K5FDR reports:  "I believe this was my best   
   Field Day ever.  I made a contact in Maui, Hawaii and I was able to   
   have the contact talk to a few Cub Scouts who came to see what Field   
   Day was all about.  You should have seen their eyes and the smiles   
   on their faces when they realized they were actually talking to   
   someone in Hawaii.  A reporter took a few pictures for the local   
   newspaper while the boys were talking to the contact in Hawaii."   
       
   "Other members of the W5BCR club made numerous contacts throughout   
   the U.S. and Canada, and several of the club members let the Cub   
   Scouts talk to their contacts on the other end.  Those contacts   
   really made a big impression and made the Cub Scout's day."   
       
   "Conditions were very good here in Texas, as a club we worked all of   
   the legal frequencies that were allowed per the rules.  Most of the   
   contacts were made on 20 meters and 40 meters (not too surprising)   
   as well as a few other bands.  We made a contact in Germany during   
   the late evening and Slovenia at 0621 UTC on 14.272.  All in all,   
   this field day was better than any field day that I have ever   
   participated in with any club, and that goes even for my first field   
   day."   
       
   Six meters apparently didn't produce results for Field Day, but   
   Julio Medina, NP3CW of San Juan, Puerto Rico (FK68wl) reported:   
      
   "On June 21, 2012 on six meters I worked TI5KD at 2306z, and HK4BKB   
   at 2313z.  On June 22, 2012 worked ON4GG at 1353z, F6GCP 1309z, PA2M   
   and F6ARC at 1309z, F8DBF and OE1WWA at 1710z, FJ/W6JKV in St.   
   Barthelemy at 1842z and WD4AB in EL95 at 1852z."   
       
   Last week we mentioned old military surplus Command radios converted   
   to SSB, and John Laney, K4BAI of Columbus, Georgia wrote:  "The   
   conversion of a Command Set to SSB was called the 'W2EWL   
   conversion'.  I think a ham with that call wrote an article for QST   
   about it.  I bought one in the late 1950s or early 1960s that   
   someone else had converted.  It would work 75 meters well and worked   
   a bit on 20 meters.  I think I had figured out a way to use it on CW   
   also."   
       
   At   
   http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v652/ranickel/Cheap%20and%20Easy%20SSB/   
   you can see photos of the conversion.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
       
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of   
   the numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of   
   past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
       
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
       
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
       
   Sunspot numbers for June 21 through 27 were 13, 13, 13, 24, 14, 28,   
   and 79, with a mean of 26.3.  10.7 cm flux was 97.7, 88.4, 84, 85.3,   
   88.6, 99.2 and 106.3, with a mean of 92.8.  Estimated planetary A   
   indices were 3, 5, 4, 5, 9, 8, and 6, with a mean of 5.7.  Estimated   
   mid-latitude A indices were 3, 5, 4, 5, 5, 7, and 8, with a mean of   
   5.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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