SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP025   
   ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP26   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 25  ARLP025   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  June 22, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP025   
   ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Sunspot numbers seemed to be in a free-fall this week. Average daily   
   sunspot numbers declined over 29 points to 87. Average daily solar   
   flux fell 6.2 points to 126.2. (We erred in last week's bulletin   
   when we said the average daily solar flux for the week of June 7-13   
   was 115.9. It was really 132.4).   
      
   The outlook for Field Day weekend, June 22-23, is for low sunspot   
   numbers and quiet geomagnetic conditions. The progression of daily   
   sunspot numbers in the past five days (June 17-21) was 96, 66, 64,   
   29 and 13.   
      
   Predicted daily solar flux is just 95 for June 22-29, 125 on June 30   
   through July 7, then 130, 135, and 140 on July 8-10, then 145 on   
   July 11-12.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 21-29, then 8 on June 30,   
   15 on July 1-3, 8 on July 4-5, 5 on July 6-7, 8 on July 8-9, and 5   
   on July 10-14.   
      
   The solar flux forecast improved slightly from June 20-21. On June   
   20, a flux value of 90 was predicted for June 21-28. Then the next   
   day, June 21, the predicted solar flux was changed to 95, predicted   
   for June 22-29.   
      
   The sunspot number at 13 on June 21 was the lowest since August 15,   
   2011. On the same day the solar flux dropped to 98, the lowest value   
   since April 13, 2012, ten weeks ago today.   
      
   OK1MGW sent a geomagnetic forecast for July 22 to July 9, 2012.   
   Mostly quiet, June 22-23, quiet to unsettled, June 24-29, quiet to   
   active June 30, active on July 1-3, quiet to unsettled July 4-7, and   
   quiet to active on July 8-9.   
      
   Last week two more solar videos accompanied by dramatic music   
   appeared at   
   http://www.universetoday.com/95831/sun-spews-earth-directed-flares/.   
      
   Also check   
   http://space.brevardtimes.com/2012/06/giant-sunspot-fires-two-solar-flares.html   
   and   
   http://www.dailydisruption.com/2012/06/giant-sunspot-fires-two-s   
   lar-flares-towa   
   rd-earth/.   
      
   It is also interesting to see how tabloids in the UK present science   
   articles: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2161626/.   
      
   And last,   
   http://revmodo.com/2012/06/20/sun-spot-activity-unleashes-solar-   
   lares-geomagnet   
   ic-storms-and-stunning-northern-lights/.   
      
   Jim Williams, K5NN of Wichita, Kansas wrote in response to last   
   week's bulletin: "Some of the comments on the 1950's 10 meter   
   propagation were interesting. I was first licensed as a teenager in   
   1952. My first equipment was a Command receiver/transmitter so I   
   could only get on 80/40 meter CW. In 1953 I built a 6L6 Heising   
   modulated rig that could run 6 watts on 10 meters. I was using a   
   borrowed Hallicrafters S20R receiver with a pre-amp. The antenna was   
   a ground plane made out of military surplus steel rod.   
      
   "I worked the world! I forget my country total but it was well over   
   100 by the time I graduated from high school and joined the Air   
   Force. I was not able to return to ham radio till the mid 60s and 10   
   meters was still very good then. At that time I was able to run many   
   scheduled phone patches from Antarctica and the Military   
   installations in the Pacific on 10 meters into West Texas and New   
   Mexico."   
      
   The Command set that K5NN mentioned refers to a huge number of   
   radios available on the surplus market for next to nothing after   
   World War II. With a little modification these could be put on the   
   air, and if you look in old copies of QST and especially (if I   
   recall correctly) CQ magazine in the 40s and 50s, there were many   
   conversion articles based around these radios. I even recall seeing   
   one which converted a command set transmitter to SSB, which involved   
   gutting the unit and using a few key components.   
      
   An article on these radios, with nice photos at the bottom is at   
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/ARC-5. A unique image is at   
   http://aafradio.org/flightdeck/arc5-1.htm and another is at   
   http://www.iarc.org/~4z5to/arc.php.   
      
   Also check this photo at   
   http://radios4fun.net/index.php?p=1_26_St-Julians-Massacre which I   
   think might be of surplus radios ready to be dumped in the ocean   
   after WWII. There were just too many to haul back to the United   
   States. At this same site, check http://radios4fun.net/index.php for   
   many more photos of military radios from that era.   
      
   Rob Gregory, KD7H wrote about Fidalgo Island, mentioned in last   
   week's bulletin. Actually I noticed that W7LTQ is in Anacortes,   
   Washington, which is separated from the mainland by a very narrow   
   channel. When you drive there, it is not obvious that you are on an   
   island.   
      
   KD7H wrote: "I am a big IOTA fan and I wanted to give you a   
   correction, regarding W7LTQ's QTH. Fidalgo hasn't qualified as being   
   part of IOTA NA-065 for quite some time because it doesn't meet the   
   'distance from shore' requirement (it's too close to the mainland,   
   of course). The same holds true for Anderson, Camano, Fox, and   
   McNeil islands.   
      
   "Regarding propagation, this past week I couldn't get to sleep so I   
   was on HF between 1 and 2am, and was very surprised to be able to   
   work into Europe, including the UK, on 20 and 17 meters (both CW and   
   SSB) and the ZL/VK/JA areas were coming through at the same time. I   
   was running about 400 watts, but only using a G5RV up about 30 feet   
   in fir trees alongside the house. Oddly, during the daylight hours   
   the bands seemed pretty dead in my neighborhood. However, yesterday,   
   Friday, June 15, OD5NJ had quite an amazing signal on 17 meter CW in   
   the late afternoon and it was well past dark at his house. If I can   
   hear good DX on my wire then I can determine that the bands are open   
   - HI! At our latitude, that hasn't happened much since last October.   
   Thankfully, the DX gods smiled when I worked 3C0E, 7O6T, 9N7MD, and   
   A5A (being retired with tons of time helps, too)."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for June 14 through 20 were 114, 113, 110, 96, 66,   
   64, and 46, with a mean of 87. 10.7 cm flux was 148.6, 144.9, 134.5,   
   124, 118, 109.9 and 103.7, with a mean of 126.2. Estimated planetary   
   A indices were 4, 4, 19, 39, 15, 3, and 4, with a mean of 12.6.   
   Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 4, 19, 36, 13, 5, and 4,   
   with a mean of 12.1.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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