SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024   
   ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP25   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24  ARLP024   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  June 15, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP024   
   ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity was lower this week, although for the past few days   
   sunspot numbers and solar flux were rising.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers declined over 14.3 points to 116.1,   
   and average daily solar flux was off by 14.5 points to 115.9.  There   
   were five new sunspot groups this week, two each on June 9-10, and   
   one more on June 13.   
      
   The latest prediction has solar flux at 150 on June 15-16, 145 on   
   June 17-18, 140 on June 19-20, 130 and 120 on June 21-22, 110 on   
   June 23-26, 105 on June 27-28, followed by a climb back to 120 on   
   July 1-12.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 15-16, 18 on June 17, 8 on   
   June 18, and 5 on June 19-25. The next peak of geomagnetic activity   
   is predicted for June 30 to July 4 with planetary A index at 8, 15,   
   12, 10 and 8. Following that is a similar peak on July 15-17 of 15,   
   12 and 8.  Looking further out, planetary A index of 8, 15 and 12 is   
   predicted for July 27-29.   
      
   The geomagnetic forecast from OK1MGW has quiet to unsettled   
   conditions June 15-17, quiet to active June 18, active June 19-20,   
   quiet to unsettled June 21, mostly quiet June 22-23, quiet to   
   unsettled June 24-29, quiet to active June 30, and active conditions   
   July 1-3.   
      
   The most active days over the past week were June 11-12, when the   
   planetary A index was 14 and 13.  The high latitude college A index   
   was 22 and 8 on those days, but the mid-latitude A index numbers   
   from Fredericksburg, Virginia were only 11 and 10.   
      
   We often get messages about Cycle 19, the huge solar cycle which   
   peaked in 1959, but not so often about the peak of Cycle 18.  W7LTQ,   
   who lives on Fidalgo Island (IOTA NA-065) in the San Juan   
   Archipelago and signs his messages "Old Chief Lynn" wrote, "Indeed   
   Cycle 19 was hot, and perhaps even hotter, judging by 10 meter   
   operations, was Cycle 18! There were a couple of weeks in the spring   
   of 1948 when the 10 meter phone band was just one howling mess of   
   heterodynes (AM was king).  During Cycle 19, working the Tucson   
   local 10 meter 'short skip' net, there were a couple of early   
   evenings when stations across town in Tucson, AZ, were working short   
   skip AND long path propagation simultaneously. That was a strange   
   echo sounding mess. Turning our beams towards a short skip contact   
   and 180 degrees away confirmed the phenomenon. I think we were   
   probably on the so-called Grey Line."   
      
   Yes, in the days before SSB phone, a pile of AM signals could sound   
   quite messy.  By the way, 1948 was the year W7LTQ turned 16 years   
   old. You can have a look at Cycles 18 and 19 and many others on the   
   WM7D Historical Solar Charts at   
   http://wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/historical.shtml.  Cycles 18 and 19   
   are the fifth and sixth cycle peaks from the left side of the page   
   in the chart of "Monthly Sunspot Numbers 1900 to 1999."   
      
   Regarding the link in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin to   
   the researcher who believes modern sunspot numbers are inflated, Ken   
   Grimm, K4XL of Amherst, Virginia wrote, "Regardless of what Prof.   
   Svalgaard's charts and tables show, those of us who lived through   
   the late 50s and enjoyed the benefits of something that he thinks   
   didn't happen, know what we experienced.  Nothing since has come   
   even close to the conditions on the HF bands during those wonderful   
   days.  Fifty watts of AM on 10 meters was enough to work the world   
   with honest 5x9 sigs!  Twenty meters was open 24 hours a day and DX   
   was commonplace, etc.  Nothing can convince me that the late 50s   
   weren't unusual!"   
      
   An interesting article in the popular press appeared this week,   
   suggesting that long term prediction of solar cycles is impossible.   
   Read it at,   
   http://www.telegraphindia.com/1120612/jsp/frontpage/story_15600043.jsp.   
      
   Also note toward the end of the article that the student, Bidya   
   Binay Karak, authored a paper explaining why sunspots disappeared   
   for a time in 2008-2010.  When I look at his curriculum vitae I see   
   a paper about the Maunder Minimum, but not about the more recent   
   quiet Sun. You can check Karak's CV at   
   http://www.physics.iisc.ernet.in/~bidya_karak/.   
      
   Don't miss Carl Luetzelschwab's interesting article in the current   
   (July 2012) issue of QST, "Our Recent Solar Minimum and Sunspot   
   Cycle 24 Progress." You'll find it on page 33.   
      
   Phil Platt, of the Bad Astronomy blog has a link to a video of an   
   active sunspot, complete with dramatic music at,   
   http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2012/06/14/what-a   
   dramatic-sunspo   
   t/.   
      
   Also check   
   http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/06/14/12227124-incomin   
   -solar-storms-o   
   n-the-way   
   for a piece on upcoming solar storms.   
      
   On June 12, Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia   
   reported, "12 meters has been open to unexpected areas on F2 and   
   combination Es/F2 paths recently. On the June 9 at 2317 I worked   
   OM3EY with a S9 CW signal followed by HL2WP S7 at 2321Z. CQs towards   
   Europe and Asia didn't result in any other contacts. 12 meter   
   activity is pretty low.   
      
   "15 meters has been open all night to the west/NW for EU stations   
   quite often lately. It was 0041Z (0341 in Latvia) when Alex YL3GAX   
   answered my CQ, he was S7. Also worked around the same time were   
   VK5BC on 10 meter SSB, FO8WBB on 12 CW, CT2HTM on 12 SSB, and TA,   
   JA, DO1, and E70T on 15 SSB. Still the same evening June 10 UTC in   
   the 0200Z hour on 15, ZL3TE, SU9VB, UR8GZ, EM2012MH, RZ0AF, and   
   ZL4PW were logged on CW and UA9MA, OE6MDF, SV9ANK, and VK3HF on 15   
   SSB.   
      
   "Nothing much was happening above 15 meters towards EU on June 10   
   around 2000Z, but by 2052Z MD0CCE was logged 599 on 12 meter CW   
   followed by IZ2BHP and G0GKH on 10 CW. Then CQs on 10 SSB resulted   
   in a run of about 20 EU stations from 2112-2126Z the most distant   
   being SV2FLM and 9A6JOY. Many Italians and British were logged along   
   with GM, GW, EI, and F. This was a good Es opening with typical   
   spotty coverage on the EU end. Quite a few stations were running   
   100W or less to verticals or low dipoles; they were typically S5 or   
   less but Q5 with bigger stations mostly S7.   
      
   "On June 11 EA7JZ was worked peaking 59 on 10 meter SSB at 2225Z, no   
   other EU heard or worked. He reported just making 3 LP QSOs with   
   VK."   
      
   James French, W8ISS of Lincoln Park, Michigan wrote to ask if there   
   were any reports of unusual propagation during the recent transit of   
   Venus event. I did not receive any, nor did I expect them.  But   
   James got a great response when he set up a public viewing of the   
   recent transit. He wrote, "had great viewing of the transit here in   
   Lincoln Park (EN82jg). Helped out at the high school's observatory   
   with the local astronomy club. Had about 400 turn out as it happened   
   which was better than I really expected with no publicity that we   
   were doing it other than a sign out at the road."   
      
   Steve Pulley of Stoughton, Wisconsin sent in an SWL report after   
   copying last week's bulletin from W1AW using BPSK31 over a Radio   
   Shack DX-392 general coverage shortwave receiver. Looks like perfect   
   copy, using fldigi, which he read about in an ARRL License Manual.   
   He was excited, waiting for his ham license in the mail.  I see that   
   on the same day he wrote, he was issued KC9WDH.   
      
   Don't know when we last had a look at this, but note the OVATION   
   Auroral Forecast at http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/. They   
   display a handy red line indicating the furthest south points where   
   aurora might be visible after dark.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for June 7 through 13 were 98, 90, 107, 127, 114,   
   132, and 145, with a mean of 116.1. 10.7 cm flux was 128.2, 124.2,   
   128.3, 128.3, 133.9, 141.3 and 142.8, with a mean of 115.9.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 8, 8, 6, 14, 13, and 6, with a   
   mean of 9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 9, 9, 6, 11, 10,   
   and 7, with a mean of 8.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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