SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023   
   ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP24   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23  ARLP023   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  June 8, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP023   
   ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers increased about 60% during the past   
   week (May 31 through June 6), when compared to the previous seven   
   days (May 24-30). The increase was 48.5 points, from 81.9 to 130.4.   
   Average daily solar flux was up 18.6 points from 111.6 to 130.2.   
      
   The increase in activity began June 1.  On May 29 the daily sunspot   
   number was 73, with four sunspot groups visible, 1486, 1488, 1490   
   and 1492. On May 30, the size of groups 1486, 1488 and 1492   
   diminished, but 1490 grew, and the sunspot number was 78. On May 31   
   sunspot groups 1486 and 1488 disappeared, and new groups 1493, 1494   
   and 1495 appeared.  The daily sunspot number was still about the   
   same, 76.  On June 1 three new groups appeared, 1496, 1497 and 1498,   
   and the daily sunspot number jumped to 151, and the next day the   
   sunspot number was 113.   
      
   On June 3 sunspot group 1499 appeared, the sunspot number was 133,   
   and on June 4 three more sunspot groups arose, 1500, 1501 and 1502.   
   Two groups disappeared, 1490 and 1492, and the sunspot number jumped   
   again, this time to 155, the high for the week and the highest since   
   May 14 when it was 156.   
      
   On June 5, group 1492 emerged again (briefly), 1495 and 1501 faded,   
   and new sunspot group 1503 appeared. The sunspot number was 154,   
   about the same as June 4. On June 6 groups 1492 and 1500   
   disappeared, and the sunspot number dropped to 131. On Thursday,   
   June 7, the daily sunspot number dropped to 98, and sunspot groups   
   1502 and 1503 were gone.  Solar flux also made a big drop, from 140   
   on June 6 to 128.2 on June 7.   
      
   Actually the noon solar flux on June 6 at the observatory (in   
   Penticton, British Columbia) was 151.9, but because NOAA reported it   
   as 140, from past experience we know that the higher number was an   
   outlier, a value indicating that the 2.8 GHz receiver at the   
   Penticton observatory must have been overwhelmed with radiation,   
   perhaps from solar wind, that made accurate measurement of solar   
   flux difficult. This is similar to front-end overload in a receiver,   
   when a strong nearby signal swamps the input.   
      
   At   
   ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/daily_flux_values/fluxtable.txt   
   you can examine the raw numbers from Penticton.  There are three   
   readings per day at 1700z, 2000z and 2300z.  The local noon (2000z)   
   reading is the official solar flux value for the day.  Judging from   
   the readings just before (138.7, 133.6 and 132.7) and just after   
   (134.5, 131.4 and 128.2) the June 6 noon reading, an estimated value   
   of 140 seems generous.   
      
   Compare these readings to the solar flux numbers in the NOAA table   
   of values at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt and you   
   can see how the Penticton flux values resolved at one digit past the   
   decimal point are presented as whole numbers.   
      
   There are some nice photos of the observatory at Penticton in a 2011   
   presentation by astrophysicist Kenneth Tapping at   
   http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2011ScienceMeeting/docs/pres   
   ntations/6i_Tap   
   ping_SORCE2011-KFT.pdf.   
      
   Geomagnetic activity peaked on June 3, when the planetary A index   
   was 19, and the high-latitude college A index was 33.  The activity   
   continues, with the planetary A index on June 4-6 at 16, 17 and 17,   
   and the predicted planetary A index for June 8-11 at 8, 5, 10 and   
   10, followed by 5 on June 12-17. Geomagnetic activity is expected to   
   increase again, with a predicted planetary A index on June 18-20 at   
   15, 12 and 8. For June 21-25 a planetary A index of 5 is expected,   
   followed by another peak at 15 on July 1 and again on July 15.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 130 on June 8-10, 135 on June 11, 130 on   
   June 12, and 125 on June 13-15, 115 on June 16-18, and 110 on June   
   19-26.   
      
   The recent geomagnetic activity was caused by a coronal hole, an   
   opening in our Sun's magnetic field allowing solar wind to spew   
   forth.   
      
   Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interested Group says   
   there is a "High probability of changes in solar wind which may   
   cause changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere, expected on June   
   17-18."  He also says to watch for quiet to active conditions June   
   8-9, quiet to unsettled June 10, quiet June 11-12, quiet to active   
   June 13, mostly quiet June 14, quiet to unsettled June 15-16, quiet   
   to active June 17, mostly quiet June 18, active conditions on June   
   19, quiet to unsettled June 20-21, mostly quiet June 22-23, and   
   quiet to unsettled again on June 24-27.   
      
   You've heard of the glory days of Cycle 19 (maybe you were on the   
   air in the late 1950s?) and that the twentieth century was an   
   unusual period of heightened solar activity?  Well check out this   
   interesting piece, presented by a researcher who thinks the modern   
   sunspot numbers may have been inflated:   
   http://www.leif.org/research/The%20long-term%20variation%20of%20   
   olar%20activity   
   .pdf.   
      
   Just after last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP022 was   
   posted, this came in from Mark Bell, K3MSB of Airville,   
   Pennsylvania:   
      
   "Just a quick note on 6 meter happenings from FM19.  I've only been   
   on six since about 2005, but this year I've seen openings into the   
   Caribbean, South America, and Europe in late May which is a few   
   weeks earlier than typical.  On May 26 at 2231Z I worked FG8AR,   
   followed shortly thereafter by J69MV.  May 31 at 0049Z yielded   
   HK7AAG who was up and down with deep QSB.  At 1555Z on the same day   
   I worked Costas SV1DH in KM18.  Costas was putting out a decent   
   signal into the East Coast.  I emailed him after our QSO and he   
   reports: "Running hr 1KW RF into 7el Yagi CL6DXX CREATE and I'm on   
   top of a seven story building, clear to US, but have lots of Athens   
   city noise limiting greatly my reception and so lost many US station   
   calling..."   
      
   And last, baby boomers (those of us born in the United States   
   between 1946 and 1964) of a certain age may recall the scary   
   early-1960s, when we lived with fear of The Bomb, and the Cold War   
   raged in the news. There was great fear of Russia and the Eastern   
   Block, and we would see occasional references in the news to the   
   Soviet newspaper Pravda and what seemed to us like wild propaganda.   
   At the same time, we saw public service announcements on television   
   about Radio Free Europe, transmitting a USA version of truth   
   (Pravda, by the way, literally translates from Russian as "true" or   
   "truth") to people "behind the Iron Curtain," who we were told were   
   hungry for an alternative to state-controlled media.  Well Pravda is   
   still publishing, and it turns out Radio Free Europe is still   
   broadcasting. Check out this wild story from RFE quoting a Russian   
   scientist who posits that increased solar activity correlates with   
   periods of heightened social unrest:   
   http://www.rferl.org/content/russias-sunspot-revolution/24604395.html.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for May 31 through June 6 were 76, 151, 113, 133,   
   155, 154, and 131, with a mean of 130.4. 10.7 cm flux was 117.3,   
   128.6, 129.1, 129.4, 128.2, 138.7 and 140, with a mean of 130.2.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 6, 9, 19, 16, 17, and 17,   
   with a mean of 13.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 6, 8,   
   16, 14, 15, and 17, with a mean of 11.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   Providing   emergency   communications  assistance  to  your   
   neighbors and community isn't just a good thing to do,  it's   
   the first and foremost activity recognized in the U.s. rules   
   governing amateur radio in 47 CFR section 97.1. IF you enjoy   
   amateur  radio  remember  that  this  is  an  obligation you   
   tacitly agreed to when you acquired your license.   
      
      
      
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