SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042   
   ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP42   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42  ARLP042   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 22, 2010   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP042   
   ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average sunspot numbers for the week were up nearly 44 points to   
   55.6.  Average solar flux readings were unchanged, at 84.9.  For a   
   few days solar flux values rose above 90, but currently the   
   projection from USAF and NOAA for solar flux over October 22-31 is   
   82, 82, 82, 82, 80, 80, 80, 80, 80 and 80.   
      
   The same forecast predicts planetary A index for the same period at   
   5, 10, 15, 12, 5, 5, 5, 5, 7 and 7.  Geophysical Institute Prague   
   predicts quiet conditions on October 22, quiet to unsettled October   
   23, unsettled October 24-25, and quiet October 26-28.   
      
   Seven new sunspot groups arrived this month, with group 1112   
   appearing October 9, group 1113 on October 13, 1114 and 1115 on   
   October 14, 1116 on October 17, 1117 and 1118 on October 19.  While   
   the average sunspot number for the past week was 55.6, the greatest   
   sunspot activity was over the past few days, with the daily sunspot   
   numbers on October 17-20 at 61, 69, 65 and 61. On October 21 the   
   sunspot number dropped to   
      
   Check the new November issue of "WorldRadio Online" for two articles   
   of interest concerning propagation.  The first is a piece beginning   
   on page 14 about gray line propagation, and on page 38 is Carl   
   Luetzelschwab's excellent monthly Propagation column.  This month   
   Carl addresses questions that arose when news articles appeared   
   describing a shrinking thermosphere.  Did this affect propagation?   
   Carl's data shows that it probably did not.  You can find a new   
   WorldRadio online on the twentieth of each month at   
   http://www.worldradiomagazine.com/.   
      
   Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin mentioned the WSPR program   
   and the article about it on page 30 in the November 2010 issue of   
   QST.  A useful tool generated by this network is the map at   
   http://wsprnet.org/drupal/wsprnet/map.  You can look at weak-signal   
   propagation over all bands for the past 24 hours, or look at any of   
   the dozen individual amateur bands from 2 to 160 meters, plus VLF.   
   You can limit your view down to 30 minutes, 1 hour, 3 hours, 6   
   hours, 12 hours or 24 hours.   
      
   WSPR is not a mode where you can converse with other stations, but   
   rather an automated network that picks up weak signals from other   
   stations in the network and displays the propagation paths.  Because   
   it is effective with such weak signals, it isn't clear how this   
   might be used to indicate a possible path for an SSB QSO, for   
   example.   
      
   Jim Muiter, N6TP of San Mateo, California says that on Thursday   
   morning he picked up the 10 meter NCDXF beacon ZS6DN in South Africa   
   around 1700z, and it disappeared a few hours later.  In the past,   
   this has been an indicator of improving conditions.   
      
   The Northern California DX Foundation operates beacons worldwide on   
   10, 12, 15, 17 and 20 meters.  These are very useful for determining   
   when the bands are open.  Check it out at   
   http://www.ncdxf.org/beacon/beaconschedule.html.   
      
   In response to W7EET's query in last week's bulletin, Dave Parslow,   
   VK3AIF of Melton, Victoria, Australia (about 25 miles WNW of   
   Melbourne) wrote to tell us about a web site that the Australian   
   government operates that uses real time ionosonde (ionospheric   
   sounder) data to predict propagation.  Unfortunately, we don't have   
   a system like that here, but it can be used to predict propagation   
   from North America back to the South Pacific.   
      
   Dave wrote, "I don't know if you have a similar service available in   
   North America, perhaps I should research that before putting pen to   
   paper so to speak but what I use here is the Hourly Hap Charts   
   published by the Australian Government Ionospheric Prediction   
   Service http://www.ips.gov.au.   
      
   "The IPS posts these charts hourly using near real time data   
   gathered from Ionograms, a list of their locations is also available   
   on the above site and overlay a map with colored contours   
   representing different frequencies in the HF spectrum.  They can be   
   read at a glance and the optimal frequency determined for your   
   particular path of interest.   
      
   "How I use them is to go to http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/1/1   
   in my java enabled browser and select my approximate location from   
   the drop down list and the map appears centered on my preferred   
   position.  There are many other useful tools on the site also with   
   many having the Amateur bands selectable from the options."   
      
   Thanks, Dave!   
      
   Stan Gubiotti, VE7IEF of Abbotsford, British Columbia asked what I   
   think is happening with solar Cycle 24, and when the peak might   
   occur.   
      
   I think Cycle 24 is weak!  Regarding the peak, I will refer to the   
   NOAA space weather Preliminary Report and Forecast, available from   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/index.html.   
      
   The latest issue with a cycle forecast is PRF-1831 from October 5.   
   On page 10 we see a table showing the smoothed sunspot number   
   predicted to peak at just 90 between February and July in 2013.   
   Unfortunately this table doesn't have the months labeled across the   
   top, but I can assure you that the left hand column is always   
   January, and the right hand column is December.   
      
   Stan also asked about the meaning of various terms used in this   
   bulletin, and for this question I refer him to the links toward the   
   bottom of this bulletin.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 14 through 20 were 34, 51, 48, 61, 69,   
   65, and 61, with a mean of 55.6. 10.7 cm flux was 80.4, 82.2, 86.9,   
   83.6, 90.6, 86.6 and 83.9 with a mean of 84.9. Estimated planetary A   
   indices were 2, 5, 6, 11, 5, 5 and 4 with a mean of 5.4. Estimated   
   mid-latitude A indices were 0, 3, 3, 10, 3, 7 and 3 with a mean of   
   4.1.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   .   
      
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