SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP013   
   ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP13   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 13  ARLP013   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  March 30, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP013   
   ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Eight new sunspot groups appeared this week, but the average daily   
   sunspot number declined four points to 71.1. Average daily solar   
   flux rose by less than two points to 103.7.   
      
   On Thursday, March 22 three new sunspot groups appeared, numbered   
   1441, 1442 and 1443. Two more groups appeared on Friday - 1444 and   
   1445 - and 1442 vanished from view. On March 24 group 1441   
   disappeared, and on March 25 new group 1446 emerged. On March 26,   
   groups 1440, 1443 and 1446 faded away, but 1442 - not seen since   
   four days earlier - re-emerged. On March 27 group 1444 disappeared   
   and 1447 appeared, and on March 28 new group 1448 arrived.   
      
   For the short term, planetary A index is predicted to be 5 on March   
   30 through April 9, then 12 on April 10, and back to 5 on April   
   11-12, then 15 and 10 on April 13-14, followed by 5 on April 15-23.   
   A similar pattern appears way out in May, when planetary A index is   
   predicted at 12 on May 7, then 15 again on May 10. It's a good guess   
   that this is probably based on the rotation of the Sun relative to   
   Earth, predicting that an active magnetic area could appear again   
   27-28 days later.   
      
   The solar flux prediction shows flux values of 120, 130 and 135 on   
   March 30 through April 1, then 140 on April 2-6. On April 7-11 the   
   predicted solar flux is 130, 125, 120, 110 and 105. On April 12-15   
   the predicted solar flux is 100. It then goes to 105 and 110 on   
   April 16-17, and back to 100 on April 18-21, then 105 on April   
   22-23, 110 on April 24-25, 120, 125, and 130 on April 26-28, and 135   
   on April 29-30.  Another peak at 140 is predicted for May 1-3.   
      
   "Q-up Now" has a fascinating new set of real-time propagation tools   
   at http://www.q-upnow.com/, developed by a team associated with the   
   Utah State University Space Weather Center   
   (http://spaceweather.usu.edu/) in Logan, Utah.   
      
   They use a real-time model of the ionosphere called GAIM (Global   
   Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements) which is updated every 15   
   minutes with 10,000 global TEC (Total Electron Content) measurements   
   to simulate the F layers.  Then they use the ABBYNormal Model (see   
   http://gcmd.nasa.gov/records/abbyNormal.html) to model the D and E   
   layers, and the two models are combined to give a complete   
   representation of the global ionosphere.   
      
   On the first page you will see NVIS maps for Near Vertical Incidence   
   Skywave propagation.  These are not quite ready yet, and currently   
   the maps shown are several days old.   
      
   Most interesting is the HF Availability   
   (http://www.q-upnow.com/hf-availability) area in which you can model   
   real-time propagation for the frequency of your choice between any   
   two points and beyond out to the antipodes.  You can use   
   latitude/longitude coordinates, but I found it easiest to just copy   
   grid square data from callsign servers such as http://www.qrz.com.   
      
   This tool also works on 160 meters, which the propagation prediction   
   programs that many of us use do not. Of course the major difference   
   with this tool is that it tells you what the propagation should be   
   over any path right now, but they are planning on offering a   
   predictive tool.   
      
   Have fun!   
      
   Torsten Schwarz, XE2/K5TOR wrote:   
      
   "On Sunday 03/25/2012 at 9:00 local time (1500 UTC) I was surprised   
   that I was hearing a US FM Radio station on my radio (103.1 MHz) as   
   clean as if it were a local station. At that time I was driving from   
   my home QTH (Saltillo, MX grid DL95ml) to work and all that time the   
   signal was very strong. I also managed to transmit an APRS Packet   
   with no problem (Saltillo has no IGate or digi) you can look it up   
   on http://www.aprs.fi (Call: K5TOR-9). I have no idea what   
   propagation that was as it was at least 30min and there was hardly   
   any fading."   
      
   Using the http://radio-locator.com/ site I searched for stations on   
   103.1 MHz in Texas.  A likely candidate was KPAS FM, and the   
   distance to Torsten's grid square from the transmitter site was 530   
   miles.  Perhaps some solid E layer skip was helping it along that   
   day.   
      
   Pete Heins, N6ZE of Thousand Oaks, California wrote: "After various   
   parts of the US experienced long haul 6 meter DX to South America   
   and the Pacific on Wednesday and Thursday, 28/29 March 2012, I   
   worked FK8CP at 0342 UTC, on 29 March on CW: 51N/41N. I did not ID   
   any other DX stations, but heard a few other SoCal stations make a   
   few contacts. My rig is 100 watts with a 5 element Yagi up only 14   
   feet."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for March 22 through 28 were 86, 74, 65, 84, 56, 63,   
   and 70, with a mean of 71.1. 10.7 cm flux was 102.4, 104.8, 102.7,   
   101.3, 102.4, 105.6, and 107, with a mean of 103.7. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 6, 6, 10, 4, 4, 12, and 12, with a mean of   
   7.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 5, 9, 4, 4, 15, and   
   10, with a mean of 7.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   ---   
                                   ========   
      
   IF you have questions or concerns regarding the accuracy   
   of information posted, or the opinions expressed, contact the content   
   originators directly.   All publications retransmitted as   
   fidonet echomail without alteration other than the removal of   
   email header and other control information which   
   is not part of the actual publication.   
      
   Providing   emergency   communications  assistance  to  your   
   neighbors and community isn't just a good thing to do,  it's   
   the first and foremost activity recognized in the U.s. rules   
   governing amateur radio in 47 CFR section 97.1. IF you enjoy   
   amateur  radio  remember  that  this  is  an  obligation you   
   tacitly agreed to when you acquired your license.   
      
      
      
   ---   
    * Origin: RRN BBS: Your fidonet ham radio connection! (1:116/901)