SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP012   
   ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP12   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 12  ARLP012   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  March 23, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP012   
   ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity declined this week.  Average daily sunspot numbers   
   were off by over 13 points to 75.1, and average daily solar flux   
   dropped over 32 points to 102.1.   
      
   Solar flux dropped barely below 100, but rounded up to 100 as shown   
   on the NOAA SEC site at,   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt.   
      
   The next short-term peak in solar flux is expected at the 135 level   
   for April 3-6.  Predicted solar flux for March 23-25 is 100, 105 on   
   March 26, 110 on March 27, 115 on March 28-29, 120 on March 30, and   
   130 on March 31 through April 2, then 135 on April 3-6, and 130,   
   120, 115 and 105 on April 7-10, 100 on April 11-15, 105 and 110 on   
   April 16-17, and 100 on April 18-22.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on March 23-27, 10 on March 28, 8   
   on March 29-31, 5 on April 1-2, 8 on April 3-4, 5 on April 5-9, then   
   12, 5, 5, 15 and 10 on April 10-14, and 5 again on April 15-23, then   
   10 on April 24, 8 on April 25-27, and 5 on April 28-29.   
      
   The CQ World Wide SSB WPX Contest should see good conditions this   
   weekend.   
      
   Even with the decline, new sunspot groups were popping out this   
   week.  On Thursday, March 15 sunspot group 1435 appeared, and the   
   next day 1436 emerged, followed by 1437 on March 17. On March 18,   
   1437 disappeared, followed by 1436 on March 19, and on March 20 two   
   new groups, 1438 and 1439 appeared. On March 21, 1439 disappeared   
   while 1440 emerged. On March 22, three new sunspot groups, 1441,   
   1442 and 1443 appeared.   
      
   Fred Glenn, K9SO of Palatine, Illinois sent in an interesting   
   article about neutrino communications.  You can read about it here:   
   http://www.v3.co.uk/v3-uk/v3-co-uk-labs-blog/2161410/scientists-   
   igital-neutrino   
   -beam-transmit-practically.   
   Of course, with a 0.1 Hz data rate - would a dit take 10 seconds to   
   transmit? - and a 170 ton detector, this medium requires a little   
   work.   
      
   Howard Lester, N7SO pointed out that the link we gave in last week's   
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP011 to Alan Friedman's images show   
   photos taken in Buffalo, not Brooklyn.  Also, I had a real "doh!"   
   slap-my-forehead moment when he pointed out that pictures of the Sun   
   are not affected by light pollution from city streetlights and other   
   urban sources that bedevil astronomers searching the night sky.   
      
   In a message titled "Propagation Weirdness," Jim Hadlock, K7WA of   
   Seattle, Washington on March 22 wrote, "This morning while chasing   
   EU stations on 17 meter CW I worked 9M6YBG (at 1614Z on 18080) - and   
   it wasn't the first time.  Last year on March 30 I worked him at   
   1627Z, about midnight his time. I guess it's 'anything can happen   
   day!'"   
      
   I thought that might be unusual if Jim was beaming Europe, as the   
   short path antenna heading from Seattle to Europe is about 30   
   degrees. Short path toward East Malaysia is about 300 degrees and   
   long path about 120 degrees.  But then it occurred to me that Jim   
   may not have been using a highly directional antenna.   
      
   Doing some crude propagation modeling with W6ELprop, the time that   
   Jim contacted 9M6YBG is actually the beginning of a second opening   
   for the day on 17 meters at this time of year in early spring. The   
   model shows a brief opening from 0600-0730 UTC (11:00 PM Pacific   
   Daylight Time until 12:30 AM) but the second opening looks better,   
   after 1600 UTC, very strong and reliable through 1930 UTC.   
      
   Yet another article about our Sun popped up the other day, and I   
   like the way it describes our Sun's corona as "covered and bound up   
   with strong magnetic fields that are ropy and twisted in nature,"   
   like "a writhing mass of snakes holding in the surface of a globe."   
   See it for yourself at,   
   http://news.thomasnet.com/green_clean/2012/03/20/anticipating-a-   
   emper-tantrum-f   
   rom-the-sun-in-2013/.   
      
   A story out of Fargo, North Dakota describes a doctoral candidate's   
   effort to accurately predict sunspot activity. See the article at,   
   http://www.grandforksherald.com/event/article/id/232610/ and the   
   photo at,   
   http://www.grandforksherald.com/event/image/id/58086/headline/Ch   
   rish%20Bauer-Re   
   ich/.   
      
   On March 17, Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia   
   wrote: "It seemed like disturbed conditions most of the week. The   
   SFI really took a nose dive today compared to 2-3 days ago, only 100   
   with K index currently 2. 15 meters was almost dead to EU in the   
   1400Z hour which is usually about the best hour, just a few rather   
   weak Mediterranean area stations. The Russians on 20 were 'watery,'   
   fluttery especially from Asia, but did log a few UA9 area stations   
   mostly from zone 17. Even the Moscow area stations were weak unless   
   beaming toward USA."   
      
   Finally, check out a couple of interesting links from   
   http://www.spacewx.com/Space_Weather_Now.html.  Click on "Solar" and   
   then the "Terrestrial" links. They show some interesting indicators   
   for geomagnetic activity and solar flux.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for March 15 through 21 were 85, 104, 89, 54, 58,   
   74, and 62, with a mean of 75.1. 10.7 cm flux was 110.6, 98.5,   
   102.4, 102, 101.8, 99.6, and 99.9, with a mean of 102.1. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 30, 20, 20, 10, 10, 4, and 4, with a mean   
   of 14. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 24, 17, 15, 11, 8, 4,   
   and 4, with a mean of 11.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   the first and foremost activity recognized in the U.s. rules   
   governing amateur radio in 47 CFR section 97.1. IF you enjoy   
   amateur  radio  remember  that  this  is  an  obligation you   
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