SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011   
   ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP11   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11  ARLP011   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  March 16, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP011   
   ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers over the past reporting week (March   
   8-14) were 88.3, a rise of nearly 19 points.  Average daily solar   
   flux rose over 12 points to 134.2.   
      
   Four new sunspots emerged, the first was sunspot group 1432 on March   
   9 (misidentified as 1421 in yesterday's ARRL Letter), which began   
   with a relative area of 90, and in the following days went to 80,   
   50, 80, 70, 60 and 100. Two sunspot groups, numbered 1433 and 1434   
   appeared on March 11, with a combined relative size (in millionths   
   of a solar hemisphere) of 240, then 130, 140, 150 and 150.   
      
   Finally on March 15, a new sunspot group 1435 emerged, with a   
   relative size of 30. The daily sunspot number on this day rose to   
   85.   
      
   The sunspot number peaked on March 11 at 103, and the solar flux on   
   March 10 at 148.9 and again on March 13 at 140.7.  The outlook for   
   the next few days has solar flux at 110 on March 16, 105 on March   
   17-21, 100 on March 22, 105 on March 23-27, 110, 115 and 125 on   
   March 28-30, and 130 on March 31 through April 5.   
      
   There was a great deal of geomagnetic activity on March 9 with a   
   planetary A index at 68, and again on March 12 with a planetary A   
   index of 28. An M-class x-ray flare occurred on March 15 at 0752   
   UTC, and if you catch it soon enough, you can see the resulting   
   x-ray flux on the GOES monitor at,   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5mBL.html.   
      
   The predicted planetary A index for March 16-17 are 18 and 10, then   
   5 for March 18-27, 10 on March 28, 8 on March 29-31, 5 on April 1-2,   
   8 on April 3-4 and 5 on April 5-9.   
      
   The Vernal Equinox will occur at 0514 UTC on March 20. The shift to   
   Spring in the Northern Hemisphere and Autumn in the Southern   
   Hemisphere generally signals favorable conditions for HF   
   propagation.   
      
   Thanks to Howard Lester, N7SO, who sent in a photo of a backyard   
   telescope in Brooklyn, New York owned by Alan Friedman and operated   
   among city lights:   
   http://www.avertedimagination.com/img_pages/little_big_man.html.   
      
   Howard also sent this solar image from March 11 using the same   
   telescope, with appropriate filters, of course:   
   http://www.avertedimagination.com/img_pages/x-rated2.html.   
      
   A detail of region 1429:   
   http://www.avertedimagination.com/img_pages/x-rated.html.   
      
   NASA posted a nice image plus a video of sunspot region 1429. See it   
   at,   
   http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/flare-20120313.html.   
      
   Scott Woelm, WX0V of Fridley, Minnesota wrote: "Bob Conzemius,   
   KB0ZXT, of Grand Rapids, Minnesota has some rather spectacular   
   time-lapse video of aurora displays.  These can be accessed on his   
   youtube site at http://www.youtube.com/user/TornadoBob1."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for March 8 through 14 were 86, 96, 89, 103, 89, 80,   
   and 75, with a mean of 88.3. 10.7 cm flux was 139.5, 145.5, 148.9,   
   131.2, 114.9, 140.7, and 118.8, with a mean of 134.2. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 24, 68, 18, 8, 28, 10, and 8, with a mean   
   of 23.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 21, 57, 17, 10, 28,   
   10, and 6, with a mean of 21.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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