SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010   
   ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP10   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10  ARLP010   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  March 9, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP010   
   ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   This has been quite a week for dramatic solar activity.  The average   
   daily sunspot number was up nearly 26 points to 69.4, and average   
   daily solar flux rose nearly 17 points to 121.9 for the period March   
   1-7.   
      
   The latest forecast has solar flux at 140 on March 9, 135 on March   
   10-13, 130 on March 14, 125 on March 15-17, then 120, 115, 115, 110,   
   110 on March 18-22, then 105 on March 23-25.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index for March 9-13 is 27, 12, 10, 10 and 12,   
   then 5 on March 14-16, then 12, 15, 10, and 8 on March 17-20, and 5   
   on March 21-27.   
      
   A series of coronal mass ejections emerged from a very large sunspot   
   group (1429), and a large one produced a shockwave that hit the ACE   
   spacecraft at 1045 UTC Thursday. I had been out earlier looking for   
   aurora as well as a dark place to watch it, as the shock was   
   expected to hit at 0630 UTC, but that was a plus or minus seven   
   hours caveat on the forecast. By the time it hit, I was back at   
   home.   
      
   I was using real time geomagnetic data to look for a rise in   
   activity, which can be accessed by hitting the "Submit Query" button   
   at http://geomag.usgs.gov/observatories/data/realtime/. For some   
   reason the shockwave was more noticeable at mid-latitude   
   magnetometers than those at the far north.   
      
   Early today (Friday morning) another CME hit Earth, and geomagnetic   
   activity is still high, with the planetary K index reaching 7.  A   
   good place to see changes in geomagnetic conditions recorded every   
   three hours is http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt.   
      
   On Thursday, NPR featured an excellent interview with Joe Kunches of   
   NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder. Listen here as he   
   gives a clear explanation of what a CME is, and talks about effects   
   to Earth and satellites above:   
   http://www.npr.org/2012/03/08/148246572/   
      
   Note also that the Boulder facility has a Facebook presence at   
   http://www.facebook.com/pages/NOAA-NWS-Space-Weather-Prediction-   
   enter/232532740   
   131296.   
      
   Another good Facebook resource is Tomas Hood's (NW7US) Space Weather   
   and Radio Resources page at   
   https://www.facebook.com/spacewx.hfradio.   
      
   More on solar activity at   
   http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/03/solar-storm/ and   
   http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2111506/.   
      
   Among all of this activity, I've not heard anything from VHF   
   operators about auroral communications.  But we did get this   
   interesting note from Jim Parkinson, W9JEF of Tontitown, Arkansas:   
      
   "I operate low band (160, 80, 40) tying the feeders of my 80 meter   
   turnstile together as a flat top with a vertical run of 48 feet. I   
   run 400 to 500 watts.   
      
   "On March 7 at 0748Z, I heard K8QKY on 40 CW, with considerable   
   flutter on his 599 signal (some QSB), and sometimes a sort of echo,   
   which may have indicated simultaneous long path propagation. Gave   
   him a call, and Steve gave me a 5NN (from Ann Arbor, MI), and he   
   reported a similar sound on my sig.   
      
   "Then at 0801Z, NN6T (Kingman, AZ) gave me a call, and I observed   
   the same effect on Glen's signal, but he said mine sounded 'FB'   
   (presumably he had his 2 el beam headed in my direction, so maybe   
   aurora instead of long path) -- 599 in both ways, again with QSB.   
      
   "At 0837 I heard ZL1BVB, but not as strong as the two times I worked   
   him (days earlier)."   
      
   Note that around the time Jim worked NN6T and K8QKY, the planetary K   
   index was 6, and the planetary A index for that day was 44.   
      
   We also heard from Angel Santana-Diaz, WP3GW of Trujillo Alto,   
   Puerto Rico:   
      
   "It's 1000 UTC today March 8, and I only hear noise, a loud   
   'SSSHHHHHHhhhhhhh' on the lower bands. Can't hear anything on 40   
   meters, no CW, not even the shortwave AM stations, Nil! Now at 1015   
   UTC I can barely hear some local Caribbean stations on 7.188 MHz.   
      
   "About this past weekend's contest, all I can say is, WOW! 10 meters   
   was the band to be on, the easiest one where you could park and call   
   all day long. Had 400 QSOs there breaking last years record, and by   
   chance, just this past Friday, got my certificate for last years   
   contest, so what a way to start!   
      
   "Later was on 80 meters, and the best time to operate was after 0700   
   UTC when I did 70 contacts in an hour. In all, did 103 QSOs,   
   something never done in a contest. And even though I had only 27   
   QSOs on 20 meters during the weekend, in less than an hour, in fact   
   on the last one, had a chance on 14.189 and did 102 QSOs and as the   
   stations were coming, I never dealt with a pile-up in that way. I   
   felt like a pro attending everybody fast!"   
      
   Later Angel reported that conditions were improving fast.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for March 1 through 7 were 24, 24, 52, 70, 105, 109,   
   and 102, with a mean of 69.4. 10.7 cm flux was 103.4, 108.2, 116.4,   
   120.1, 131.6, 138.1, and 135.7, with a mean of 121.9. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 14, 10, 8, 12, 8, 8, and 44, with a mean of   
   14.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 12, 10, 8, 10, 11, 10,   
   and 33, with a mean of 13.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   Gentlemens' agreements ratified by IARU regions 1 and 2 have   
   designated a global "center of activity" frequency  in  each   
   of  the  international  hf  bands.  THese are similar to the   
   concept for weak signal calling and other center of activity   
   frequencies.  Three of these have been ratified worldwide.   
      
   THese  center of activity frequencies are where stations can   
   go to render or obtain emergency assistance.   
      
   WHen casually operating or  contesting  on  hf  please  make   
   yourself  aware  of  these  frequencies,  and give them some   
   space. Remember that often stations with emergency needs are   
   not  those  utilizing  high  gain antennas and maximum legal   
   power.   
      
   TO find out more, visit 14300.net or IARU web resources.   
      
      
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