SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP009   
   ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP09   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9  ARLP009   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  March 2, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP009   
   ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Average daily sunspot number this week was down 12 points from the   
   previous week. Solar flux was about the same.   
      
   With February over, we can look at some of our averages and   
   statistics for the current sunspot cycle. The average daily sunspot   
   number for February 2012 was 50.1, the lowest monthly value since   
   January 2011.  The monthly averages for sunspot numbers since   
   January 2011 are 32.2, 53.5, 81.1, 80.8, 61.5, 55.5, 67.2, 66,   
   106.4, 123.6, 133.1, 106.4, 91.4 and 50.1.   
      
   We also keep track of a three-month moving average, and the latest,   
   ending in February and centered on January, 2012 is 83.3. This is   
   the numeric average of all the daily sunspot numbers from December   
   1, 2011 through February 29, 2012, a period of 91 days. 83.3,   
   centered on January, is the lowest since August 2011, when the   
   average was 79.6.  The 3 month moving averages of daily sunspot   
   numbers centered on August 2011 through January 2012 are 79.6, 98.6,   
   118.8, 118.6, 110 and 83.3.   
      
   The latest prediction has planetary A index for March 2-6 at 8, 8,   
   5, 10 and 10, then 5 on March 7-10, 8 on March 11, 5 again on March   
   12-16, then 12, 15, 10, 8 and 5 on March 17-21.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 105 on March 2-5, 100 on March 6-8, 105 on   
   March 9-11, 110 on March 12-13, and 115 on March 14-18. 110 is the   
   predicted value on March 19-20 and 105 on March 21-25, and that   
   covers the spring equinox.   
      
   The ARRL International SSB DX Contest this weekend should have   
   fairly good conditions. It looks like somewhat unsettled conditions   
   for Friday and Saturday, March 2-3, and quiet geomagnetic conditions   
   on Sunday, March 4.   
      
   A new service that forecasts geomagnetic storms for satellite   
   operators is at http://www.fp7-spacecast.eu/. You can find more   
   details at,   
   http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-03/bas-nst030112.php.   
      
   From time to time we mention silly popular press reports of large   
   solar flares and other big space weather, but this article from   
   Northern Scotland places the famous Carrington event at the peak of   
   Sunspot Cycle 19, instead of the nineteenth century:   
   http://www.johnogroat-journal.co.uk/Features/Solar-superstorm-co   
   ld-be-on-the-wa   
   y-7642279.htm.   
      
      
   Robert Miles, K9IL of Martin, Tennessee wrote about 6 meters: "This   
   is the low time for most USA 6 meter operators, unless you are very   
   far south. I have been listening for the Oceania stations that   
   others are spotting, and on Wednesday February 23 (0200z Thursday) I   
   worked Remi, FK8CP (New Caledonia) on 6 meter CW, a pretty good   
   thrill for me in EM56, NW Tennessee."   
      
   That is quite a long haul, about 7,900 miles from Robert's place on   
   Green Acres Drive to Noumea.   
      
   Mel Frost, KD7DCR at 6,200 feet near Whitehall, Montana writes about   
   6 meter plans for this year: "Just thought I'd mention that more and   
   more, plans to activate some rare grids here in the USA area this   
   season (May-August) are becoming known. Some of these are personal   
   travel plans and some are dedicated trips with only radio in mind.   
      
   "There is one big-circle route from Arizona to North Dakota, around   
   eastern North Dakota for about a month, and then back around the   
   Western side to Arizona. This one is kind of early in the year, but   
   may work well if our Sun cooperates, eh? Some Canadians are planning   
   to activate the other CY0, St Paul Island.   
      
   "The far northern Michigan grids (mostly water) are going to get a   
   go, and the biggy is a special trip down into DL88, and DL79/89 is   
   laid on with some large antennas and power. And not much said   
   currently, but there is also a 'floating' operation for DM02 planned   
   as well (very rare!). These are all concentrated on 6 meters, with   
   some higher bands being available if open."   
      
   Lance Collister, W7GJ of Frenchtown, Montana writes about   
   moonbounce: "I noticed your comments in the last propagation   
   bulletin about the low band guys enjoying the low solar activity.   
   Actually, at the other end of the spectrum, the unusually low Kp   
   index also makes for ideal 6 meters EME conditions!  And with the   
   greatly increasing number of newer transceivers (and amplifiers)   
   that include 6 meters, and with more stations QRV on digital modes,   
   many folks have 6 meter EME capability and don't even realize it! I   
   have been activating a rare DXCC on 6 meter EME for each of the last   
   4 years, and will be going to ZK2 (Niue) at the beginning of   
   September (during the optimum time of the month for 6 meter EME).   
   Any halfway decent 6 meter station with good ground gain should be   
   able to put that rare DXCC in the log during their moonset. The   
   smallest antenna I have worked so far with my portable 6 meter EME   
   setup was N3CXV and his M2 6M5X Yagi during his moonset.   
      
   "More information about 6m EME and using JT65A mode for EME is on my   
   web page http://www.bigskyspaces.com/w7gj/.   
      
   "It is REAL MAGIC on the Magic Band when you can make contacts   
   halfway around the world during a poor solar cycle!"   
      
   Howard Lester, N7SO of Schuylerville, New York wrote, "I haven't   
   been on HF for nearly 2 months, but got on this morning (February   
   24) at 1600z. Even with the flux at 'only' 103, I had a nice, but   
   short chat on 10 meter SSB with 9A9DX, Ljubo (in Croatia), with   
   S7-S8 signals both ways. Then, on 12 meter CW I heard an F6 station   
   with a booming signal from France. If this is what 10 and 12 can be   
   like at this time of year with this level of solar flux, I have no   
   complaints."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for February 23 through 29 were 52, 47, 47, 58, 45,   
   35, and 22, with a mean of 43.7. 10.7 cm flux was 103.3, 108.9, 108,   
   107, 105.5, 103.3, and 102, with a mean of 105.4. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 4, 6, 6, 6, 16, 10, and 6, with a mean of   
   7.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 6, 3, 7, 12, 11, and   
   6, with a mean of 6.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   ---   
                                   ========   
      
   IF you have questions or concerns regarding the accuracy   
   of information posted, or the opinions expressed, contact the content   
   originators directly.   All publications retransmitted as   
   fidonet echomail without alteration other than the removal of   
   email header and other control information which   
   is not part of the actual publication.   
      
   Providing   emergency   communications  assistance  to  your   
   neighbors and community isn't just a good thing to do,  it's   
   the first and foremost activity recognized in the U.s. rules   
   governing amateur radio in 47 CFR section 97.1. IF you enjoy   
   amateur  radio  remember  that  this  is  an  obligation you   
   tacitly agreed to when you acquired your license.   
      
      
      
   ---   
    * Origin: RRN BBS: Your fidonet ham radio connection! (1:116/901)