SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008   
   ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP08   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8  ARLP008   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  February 24, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP008   
   ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   We don't know if this is a significant trend, but solar activity has   
   really leveled off recently. Not everyone is unhappy about this.   
   During the recent long minimum, 160 and 80 meter operators sang the   
   praises of great conditions.   
      
   In response to my "we hope it isn't true" (prediction for a low   
   solar cycle) comment in last week's bulletin, Ken Meinken, WA8JXM of   
   Aberdeen, Ohio wrote: "Why would that be bad?  You are showing your   
   20-15-10m bias.  To those of us who prefer 160/80/40, the lower the   
   sunspots, the better.  Personally, I prefer the low part of the   
   sunspot cycle to the peak.  Of course I understand that other hams   
   have various different opinions."   
      
   The average indicators this week were almost exactly the same as   
   last.  Average daily sunspot number rose from 55.6 to 55.7. The   
   average daily solar flux declined 2.6 points to 105, and in an   
   unusual coincidence the planetary A index and mid-latitude numbers   
   were the same this week as last, 8 and 6.7.  For the numbers at the   
   end of the bulletin, and had to check three times to make sure I   
   hadn't just copied last week's numbers.   
      
   The geomagnetic activity was concentrated around February 19-20, and   
   was the result of a solar wind stream, causing aurora visible in the   
   lower 48 states.   
      
   Tim Goeppinger, K6GEP of Orange, California reports an amazing 10   
   meter aurora opening between the West Coast of the U.S. and   
   Scandinavia last Saturday night, February 18,   
      
   The latest prediction shows solar flux at 105 on February 24-25, 100   
   on February 26-29, 105 on March 1, 100 on March 2-4, 105 on March   
   5-11, 110 on March 12-13, and 115 on March 14-19. The prediction   
   sees planetary A index at 5 on February 24 through March 1, 8 on   
   March 2-3, 5 on March 4-6, 8 on March 7, and 5 on March 8-10.   
      
   Jeff Harley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote on February   
   18, "10M has been open to EU most days here recently, but nothing   
   like the Oct-Dec openings. In the PACC Dutch contest last weekend,   
   Dutch stations were worked as early as 1330Z and as late as about   
   1645Z with the best conditions around 1620-1640Z. I worked a total   
   of about 27 PA-PI stations on 10 meters and 20 was open past 2030Z,   
   but most Dutch stations migrated down to 40 and lower quite early.   
      
   "This weekend was a salt mine weekend, so time was limited in the   
   ARRL CW. I stayed on 20M and worked what I could working about 132   
   QSOs in 31 countries in about 2-1/2 hours between 0030Z-0315Z.   
   Conditions over the pole were very good, my very first CQ was   
   answered by a BA1 station and BV1EH, 9V1YC, E21EIC and another E21,   
   UN7, two HLs, many JAs, and many zone 18 and 19 Siberian Russians   
   all answered CQs. The increased polar daylight is improving and   
   lengthening the 20M polar openings. The band was open well to the   
   Caribbean at first and Africa and even CS2C in Portugal was worked.   
   Also the big gun OH8's and one LA2 were logged.   
      
   "Saturday morning, 20 was wide open to EU by before sunrise and also   
   open to Zone 17 and 18 in Russia with signals from there having a   
   wicked flutter. Two HS0s called in and signals stayed very strong   
   from EU until around 14Z. Then I checked 10M which was open to areas   
   very unexpected/poorly explainable for a SFI of only 103. UA1AFT   
   running 5W was about S6, another loud RA1, several OHs, SM, OZ, LY,   
   YL, ER, UR were all logged. Some of the best signal were from   
   Poland, but Germany just to the west was marginal as were Gs and   
   ONs. Many OKs and Is were logged, but at times even the Is were   
   somewhat weak. Around 1530, the Balkans big guns S5, 9A, E7DX were   
   S9+. My 10M CQ QSO rate was never very high, but there was fairly   
   steady stream of stations. Signals from the Caribbean farther south   
   than ZF were generally S9+."   
      
   Thanks, Jeff.   
      
   Julio, NP3CW wrote: "Last night Feb 22, 2012 I was able to contact   
   CP6UA on 50.115 MHz after been looking for him for long time . This   
   is my new one for 124 entities worked. It was a nice contact from   
   FK68wl to FH82ue. It took me nearly 10 yrs to complete all South   
   America Countries. Recently also worked HK0NA on 6 meters, Enrique   
   told me he will soon get a 1 KW amplifier for 6 meters, so maybe   
   more stations can work him in North America. Today Feb 23 2012 many   
   stations heard strong in PR on 6 meters from LU, CX, and PY. Among   
   them were CX1DDO, LU2DPW, PY2LED, CX6DH and PY1RO."   
      
   CP6UA asked if there are any propagation prediction programs that   
   work for 6 meters.  I was pretty sure there are none, but I inquired   
   with Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA for comments.   
      
   Carl wrote: "None of our propagation prediction programs cover 6   
   meters - they stop at 30 MHz. The reason why is the extremely   
   dynamic nature of the F2 region, which varies widely on a day-to-day   
   basis due to other factors than solar radiation. Thus our   
   understanding of the F2 region is statistical in nature over a   
   month's time frame, and this ultimately results in extremely low   
   predicted probabilities for 6 meters since the frequency is so high.   
   Coupled with this is the fact that 6 meter propagation may not be   
   simply refraction - it may involve scatter, help from the underlying   
   E region, and some other things."   
      
   Carl has an article on predicting 6 meter F2 propagation, which you   
   can read at,   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/Predicting_6_Meter_F2_Propagation.pdf.   
      
   In the ARRL Letter we promised some comments by K9LA on recent solar   
   activity trends, but that will have to wait. Carl ran some smoothed   
   solar flux numbers for Cycles 19-23, to observe any double-peaks,   
   and noted: "Cycle 19 didn't have a second peak (it didn't need   
   one!).   
      
   "Cycle 20 might have had a second peak - hard to tell.   
      
   "Cycle 21 had a definite second peak.   
      
   "Cycle 22 also had a very nice second peak.   
      
   "And Cycle 23 had a second peak that showed considerably more 10.7   
   cm radiation than the first peak. That was a blessing for 6m DXers   
   in the winter of 2001."   
      
   And finally, we haven't mentioned this site in awhile, for info on   
   Space Weather Basics:   
   https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=901.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for February 16 through 22 were 41, 53, 63, 69, 72,   
   61, and 31, with a mean of 55.7. 10.7 cm flux was 103.2, 103.7,   
   104.1, 105.3, 111.1, 103.3, and 104.2, with a mean of 105. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 4, 2, 4, 16, 16, 6, and 8, with a mean of   
   8. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 2, 3, 11, 14, 4, and 9,   
   with a mean of 6.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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