SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007   
   ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP07   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7  ARLP007   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  February 17, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP007   
   ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   We are over half way through the winter season, and today, February   
   17 is 58 days after the winter solstice.  Propagation should improve   
   as we approach the vernal equinox on March 20, which is just 32 days   
   from now.   
       
   Solar activity is still in the temporary doldrums, with sunspot   
   numbers below 100.  But the weekly average of daily sunspot numbers   
   rose this week by over 15 points to 55.6.   
       
   There was a geomagnetic storm on Wednesday, February 15 (UTC).   
   Early in the UTC day (Tuesday night in North America) the planetary   
   K index went to 5, and planetary A index was 22.  The College A   
   index in Fairbanks was estimated at 46, which is quite high.  The   
   disturbance was probably from a CME a few days earlier.  Aurora in   
   North America was seen as far south as Minnesota.   
       
   The latest forecast has solar flux about 65 points lower than last   
   month's prediction for the ARRL International CW DX Contest this   
   weekend.  Latest predicted flux values are 105 on February 17-18,   
   100 on February 19, 110 on February 20-21, 115 on February 22-26,   
   110 on February 27-29, and 105 on March 1-3.  The predicted flux   
   values go back to 115 on March 14-16 and again on March 20-24.   
   Predicted planetary A index for February 17-19 is 5, 8, and 8, then   
   5 on February 20 through March 1.   
       
   This just in, the latest sunspot cycle prediction from NASA, and it   
   doesn't look good: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml.   
       
   Two weeks ago NASA released a revised prediction stating the cycle   
   should peak in late 2013 at a smoothed sunspot number of 96.  The   
   latest outlook estimates a peak in early 2013 at 63, about 35   
   percent lower than the prediction from two weeks ago.  We hope it   
   isn't true.   
       
   Tom Little, WA9BOT is in EM57 in West Frankfort, Illinois.  He   
   reports:  "On Wednesday, January 25, 2012, I heard a couple of 6   
   meter QSOs.  While I heard no call signs, I was able to determine   
   the stations were in New Mexico and Florida.  They were using 50.165   
   MHz.  I heard another QSO at 50.150 MHz, but could not pick up a   
   call sign as what I heard was only one side of the QSO.   
        
   I am new to 6 meters.  Just recently put up a 5 element beam.  I am   
   waiting for a good opening."   
       
   Thanks, Tom.   
       
   N5TM, Dan Bates lives in Katy, Texas, and wrote:  "ZL1RS was loud   
   into south Texas on 50.105 starting around 0230 on February 8, and   
   lasted for about an hour.  I personally worked Bob three times,   
   twice on CW and once on SSB.  He also worked WD5IYT, and many   
   others... At times he was S9."  That's loud!   
       
   Jon Jones, N0JK writes:  "FK8CP had an extensive opening on 50 MHz   
   to the Midwest February 12.  States hearing/working Remi included   
   AR, CA, IA, IL, IN, KS, MI, MO, MS NE, OH, OK, and TX.  This was an   
   Es link to TEP opening.  FK8CP peaked up to 5x9 in KS and OH between   
   0200-0220 UTC February 13."   
       
   In last week's bulletin there was a URL linking to an old newspaper   
   article which blamed a plane crash on solar activity.   
   Unfortunately, the ampersands in this long URL were dropped in the   
   email version, and on the copy in the bulletin archive listed toward   
   the end of this bulletin, so the link did not work.  Try this one:   
   http://www.arrl.org/news/the-k7ra-solar-update-204. The link is in   
   the last paragraph of the bulletin.   
       
   Another article on solar activity appeared in the popular press this   
   week.  See http://raleightelegram.com/20120216846.   
       
   Of course, not all articles about solar activity in the popular   
   press are accurate.  Leave it to Britain's Fleet Street tabloids to   
   make normal solar activity sound like the end of the world.  Of   
   course, the sun is massive and the amount of energy involved in   
   solar events is huge, but check the headline for this article:   
   http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2100082/.  You'll   
   note that these journalists reserve the right side of paper for the   
   really substantial news.   
       
   Note they get their information from the Spaceweather website, but   
   check the archive at http://spaceweather.com/ in the upper right   
   corner, dialing back to February 11.  Yes, the sunspot doubled in   
   size, twice actually.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
       
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of   
   the numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of   
   past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
       
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
       
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
       
   Sunspot numbers for February 9 through 15 were 33, 51, 62, 80, 59,   
   64, and 40, with a mean of 55.6. 10.7 cm flux was 99.2, 110.8,   
   112.3, 110.4, 108.4, 107.4, and 104.6, with a mean of 107.6.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 4, 4, 8, 10, and 22, with a   
   mean of 8. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 4, 3, 3, 7, 8,   
   and 18, with a mean of 6.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   ---   
                                   ========   
      
   IF you have questions or concerns regarding the accuracy   
   of information posted, or the opinions expressed, contact the content   
   originators directly.   All publications retransmitted as   
   fidonet echomail without alteration other than the removal of   
   email header and other control information which   
   is not part of the actual publication.   
      
   DO  you  offer  a  ham radio related service via fidonet? We   
   post a notice in the ls_arrl echo every 90  days  describing   
   fidonet ham radio services and echomail conferences.   
      
   Send  netmail  to infoserv at fidonet 1:116/901 and describe   
   the  service  you  offer.  If  an  echomail  conference  not   
   available via the various backbone systems please tell those   
   interested wehre to link  in.  OTherwise,  give  the  reader   
   enough information to get started using your service.   
      
      
      
   ---   
    * Origin: RRN BBS: Your fidonet ham radio connection! (1:116/901)