SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006   
   ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP06   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6  ARLP006   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  February 10, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP006   
   ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity was down again this week. In fact this is the third   
   consecutive week in which sunspot numbers were lower than the prior   
   week. In Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP003 we reported an   
   average daily sunspot number of 116.9 for January 12-18, 98.7 the   
   next week, followed by 62 last week and now 40.4 during the latest   
   period.  The solar flux forecast - which roughly tracks sunspot   
   numbers; we don't have access to any short term sunspot number   
   forecast - has also been lowered steadily over recent weeks.   
      
   On Tuesday, February 7 the daily sunspot number was 24, the lowest   
   since mid-August 2011, when it was 0 and 13 on August 14-15.   
      
   Looking at the lower frame on the Solar Data Plotting Utility from   
   WA4TTK (see http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp for a copy), it   
   appears that we are down from a peak of activity late last year.   
   You can see the same trend at http://wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/ toward   
   the middle of the page, on the graph showing sunspot and flux values   
   over the past year.   
      
   In mid-January the solar flux forecast for February 17-21 was 165,   
   which was important because the ARRL International CW DX Contest is   
   on February 18-19. More sunspots and higher solar flux would mean   
   higher usable frequencies, increasing the chance that 10 and 15   
   meters would give good results.   
      
   By January 24 the prediction was down to flux values of 155 on   
   February 11-13, 150 on February 14-19 and 145 on February 20-23.   
      
   Then on February 4 the forecast went down again, with predicted flux   
   at 125, 130 and 155 on February 11-13, 150 on February 14-19, and   
   145 on February 20-23. The next day the forecast said 125 on   
   February 11, 130 on February 12-13, with the rest of the forecast   
   unchanged from a day earlier. Two days later on February 7 was   
   another downward revision, with flux of 100, 105, 110 and 115 on   
   February 11-14, and 110 on February 15-24.   
      
   A day later on February 8 it changed again, with solar flux at 100   
   on February 9-11, 105 on February 12, and 110 on February 13-24.   
   The latest forecast (February 9) is revised upward, with solar flux   
   of 105 and 115 on February 10-11,120 on February 12-13, 125 on   
   February 14, 130 on February 15-16, 120 on February 17 and 110 on   
   February 18-24.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8 on February 10, 5 on February 11, 8   
   on February 12-13, 5 on February 14-22, 8 on February 23, and 5 on   
   February 24 through March 1.   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK of Wichita, Kansas reports a couple of 6 meter   
   spots. On February 8 he heard XE2O/b (EL05) for over 2 hours, from   
   2330 UTC to after 0130 UTC on 50.068 MHz on E-skip. He also had   
   E-skip to Texas and Arizona.   
      
   Stations in the Dallas/Fort Worth area (W5LUA, WD5K, WU0R, etc)   
   worked FK8CP (New Caledonia, in the South Pacific) on 6 meters   
   around 0200 UTC February 9 via a trans-equatorial E-skip link.   
      
   Last week Jon reported hearing the C6AFP beacon (Bahamas) on 50.04   
   MHz on January 30 around 1700 UTC.   
      
   Russ Mickiewicz, N7QR of Portland, Oregon sent a link to an article   
   in IEEE Spectrum about risks to power grids from solar storms. Read   
   it at http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/.  Look for the   
   the-smarter-grid/a-perfect-storm-of-planetary-proportions/0 link.   
      
   Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington has an observation about   
   recent solar conditions: "This bottom is the longest I can remember   
   since I was licensed in 1964. Usually we have about 12 months of   
   very low activity and the solar flux punches up over 100 in about   
   12-15 months from the cycle bottom. This time it took two-and-a-half   
   years, from the August 2008 low until February 14 2011. This time   
   last year the solar flux had not yet crossed 100. February 14 was   
   the real breakout, as chartists would say. Past solar cycles have   
   bottomed with a sunspot number of about 10-12. The sunspot number at   
   the bottom of the past cycle was approximately 1.5!  It's been a   
   long, long dry spell for the higher bands. Looking forward to the   
   150 values!"   
      
   Randy also notes, "Of all the winter months, February conditions are   
   unique. February is a combination for winter and spring propagation,   
   with increases in daylight of 3 minutes per day (at 49 degrees N.   
   Latitude) and still having very low D Layer absorption. Daylight is   
   approximately 10 hours in duration, and the grayline paths are   
   almost a carbon copy of those in October. Propagation will change   
   almost daily as spring approaches. It is an excellent time of the   
   year to DX or Contest."   
      
   Don't miss the excellent and thought provoking article about   
   propagation in the March 2012 issue of QST, "Three Wrong Assumptions   
   About the Ionosphere," by Eric Nichols, KL7AJ. Eric reminds us that   
   the ionosphere is not spherical or smooth, and he explains how   
   propagation through it is not reciprocal, or the same coming back as   
   it is going out.   
      
   And finally, the headline on the AP wire article read "Plane Crash   
   Held Caused by Sun Spots. Ghost Wave Blamed for Disaster." But the   
   date was December 1938, the peak of sunspot Cycle 17. Read it at   
   http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=2TVPAAAAIBAJsjid=U00DAAAAIB   
   Jpg=6339,409741   
   7dq=sunspothl=en.   
      
   If you look at the 20th century solar data at   
   http://wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/historical.shtml, you can spot the   
   peak of Cycle 17, two before the big one, Cycle 19, in the late   
   1950s.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for February 2 through 8 were 85, 39, 43, 37, 27,   
   24, and 28, with a mean of 40.4. 10.7 cm flux was 118, 111.1, 107,   
   102.7, 112, 107.2, and 97.2, with a mean of 107.9. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 4, 6, 6, 6, 4, 12, and 10, with a mean of   
   6.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 4, 7, 6, 5, 10, and 9,   
   with a mean of 6.3.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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