SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005   
   ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP05   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5  ARLP005   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  February 3, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP005   
   ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Here are some yearly averages this bulletin neglected at the   
   beginning of the year.  These are the average daily sunspot numbers   
   for whole calendar years, from 1994-2011: 48.1, 28.7, 13.2, 30.7,   
   88.7, 136.3, 173, 170.3, 176.7, 109.2, 68.6, 48.9, 26.1, 12.8, 4.7,   
   5.1, 25.5, and 29.9. You can see from these numbers that the minimum   
   between Cycles 22-23 centered around 1996 was over quickly. But the   
   next minimum before Cycle 24 centered around 2008-2009 was much   
   longer. In 2011 we were back near the levels we saw in 2006, 1997   
   and 1995.   
      
   Also note that from 2009-2010 the average daily sunspot number   
   increased by 400% (multiplied five times), but from 2010-2011 it   
   moved up only 17.3%.   
      
   The 3-month moving averages of daily sunspot numbers, centered on   
   January through December 2011 are: 35.3, 55.7, 72.3, 74.4, 65.9,   
   61.5, 63, 79.6, 98.6, 118.8, 118.6 and 110. The value centered on   
   December 2011 is the average of the daily sunspot numbers from   
   November 1, 2011 through January 31, 2012, and the value centered on   
   November 2011 includes all daily sunspot numbers from October 1,   
   2011 through December 31, 2011.   
      
   Over the past reporting week - January 26 through February 1 - the   
   average daily sunspot number declined nearly 37 points to 62.   
   Average daily solar flux was off nearly 21 points to 120.4. On   
   February 2 the sunspot number and total area of sunspot regions was   
   the same as February 1. The noon flux measurement moved from 117.5   
   to 118 from February 1-2.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the near term is 120 on February 2-5, 110   
   on February 6-9, 150 on February 10, 155 on February 11-13, 150 on   
   February 14-19, and 145 on February 20-23.  The forecast in   
   mid-January for flux levels at 165 on February 17-21 are but a   
   distant memory.   
      
   Unfortunately, for some reason predictions updated for Thursday were   
   not yet available early Friday, February 3, so the numbers in the   
   previous paragraph were not updated since Wednesday, February 1. But   
   you can still get the latest prediction from   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html.   
      
   The 20 point difference in predicted solar flux should be a   
   noticeable difference. Although this is not an accurate prediction   
   method, for comparative purposes I ran a W6ELprop forecast for   
   February 19 from the center of the USA to Hungary with a solar flux   
   of 145, and then again at 165. On the higher frequencies in   
   particular, paths would not be as reliable nor openings as long as   
   with the higher value.   
      
   There is a new updated NASA prediction for the peak of the current   
   cycle issued early this morning.  The previous update was on January   
   3. There is no archive of past predictions online, but I can tell   
   you that the prediction for the peak of Cycle 24 is still for a   
   smoothed international sunspot number of 96, but it has moved from   
   February 2013 to late 2013.   
      
   NASA gives a detailed explanation of the models they use for   
   predicting the peak of the cycle, and you can read it all at   
   http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml.  Also see the graph   
   at http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/f107_predict.pdf for a   
   revised solar flux prediction.   
      
   Shortly after the last bulletin was released last Friday, January   
   27, at 1837 UTC a powerful X-class solar flare was released, but not   
   Earth-directed.   
      
   In case you missed it last week, Science Friday on NPR ran a   
   fascinating story on space weather, and they spoke with astronomer   
   David Hathaway of NASA and astrophysicist Doug Biesecker of NOAA.   
   You can hear the broadcast from an archive at   
   http://www.npr.org/2012/01/27/145990089/how-space-weather-affect   
   -planes-and-pow   
   er-grids.   
      
   They mention ham radio and effects on shortwave radio propagation,   
   and Biesecker gives a fascinating account of Carrington's   
   observation of a solar flare and how it caused the great magnetic   
   storm of September 2, 1859, in which aurora was observed worldwide.   
      
   An Alaska news site ran a story on photography of aurora.  Read it   
   at   
   http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/how-photograph-northern-lights.   
      
   There were two similar articles on the formation of sunspots this   
   week. One was at   
   http://www.universetoday.com/93188/cool-gas-may-be-at-the-root-of-sunspots/,   
   the other:   
   http://www.space.com/14423-sunspots-sun-mystery-magnetic-theory.html.   
      
   We received a nice note from Ed Richmond, W4YO of Harbor Island,   
   South Carolina (EM92): "The evening of Friday, January 27 into the   
   28th was extraordinary here. At about 0145z I came into the shack to   
   take a last check on band activity before hitting the big switch,   
   checked the DX cluster for activity on 6 meters and saw a whole lot   
   of TEP activity.  I turned on my rig and immediately heard ZP6CW   
   calling CQ, weakly.  I called him with no luck. Tuning around, I   
   heard a bunch of PYs and LUs. Wow! My first experience with   
   transequatorial propagation after four years of being on the band! I   
   heard PY1ZV calling CQ, called him, and he came back to me!  Next it   
   was LU1FAM, followed by LU5FF, PY2XB, ZP5SNA, and CX9AU. Others   
   heard, but not worked.  The amazing thing about it is my station; a   
   barefoot FT920 with an indoor dipole beneath the roof at about 35   
   feet. I was so juiced for the rest of the evening, I couldn't fall   
   asleep until after midnight!"   
      
   A week ago (January 27) Julio Medina, NP3CW of San Juan, Puerto Rico   
   sent a message about some 6 meter excitement: "Today, January 27,   
   2012 at 1913 UTC I worked HK0NA (Malpelo Island) on 50.110 MHz. The   
   signal was 5x9 +30 dB in FK68, and had good propagation with him for   
   about 2 hours. Also propagation to USA, HP1AC (Panama), 9Y (Trinidad   
   and Tobago), BM (China), and CO (Cuba). We had tropo and sporadic-E,   
   also saw television from Cuba. Other locals that worked HK0NA were   
   KP4EIT, WP4U, KP4ED, WP4LUU, WP4JCF, and WP4NIX among others.  This   
   is a new country for me on 6 meters."   
      
   HK0NA is a DXpedition to Malpelo, which is an 86 acre island lying   
   235 miles off Columbia's Pacific coast, and about 225 miles from   
   Panama. The DXpedition web site is http://hk0na.com/ and you can   
   read about and see photos from a 1969 expedition at   
   http://hamgallery.com/qsl/country/Malpelo_Island/hk0tu3.htm.   
      
   The outlook for the week is low solar activity.  When looking at the   
   STEREO site at http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ on Friday morning I see   
   little activity save for a bright, complex geomagnetic signature at   
   180 degrees longitude, on the far side of our sun from Earth.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 26 through February 1 were 55, 39, 34,   
   74, 76, 71, and 85, with a mean of 62. 10.7 cm flux was 128.2,   
   141.7, 114.5, 109.8, 114.4, 116.5, and 117.5, with a mean of 120.4.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 7, 5, 5, 6, 3, and 5, with a   
   mean of 5.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 6, 6, 5, 5, 2,   
   and 5, with a mean of 4.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   IF you have questions or concerns regarding the accuracy   
   of information posted, or the opinions expressed, contact the content   
   originators directly.   All publications retransmitted as   
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   Gentlemens' agreements ratified by IARU regions 1 and 2 have   
   designated a global "center of activity" frequency  in  each   
   of  the  international  hf  bands.  THese are similar to the   
   concept for weak signal calling and other center of activity   
   frequencies.  Three of these have been ratified worldwide.   
      
   THese  center of activity frequencies are where stations can   
   go to render or obtain emergency assistance.   
      
   WHen casually operating or  contesting  on  hf  please  make   
   yourself  aware  of  these  frequencies,  and give them some   
   space. Remember that often stations with emergency needs are   
   not  those  utilizing  high  gain antennas and maximum legal   
   power.   
      
   TO find out more, visit 14300.net or IARU web resources.   
      
      
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    * Origin: RRN BBS: Your fidonet ham radio connection! (1:116/901)