SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP004   
   ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP04   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 4  ARLP004   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  January 27, 2012   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP004   
   ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   This was another week in which average daily sunspot numbers   
   declined, but average daily solar flux increased.   
      
   Predicted solar flux is 120 on January 27-30, 125 on January 31   
   through February 2, 120 on February 3, 140 on February 4-8, 145 and   
   150 on February 9-10, 155 on February 11-13, 150 on February 14-19,   
   and 145 on February 20-23.  That's right, the long anticipated short   
   term solar flux peak of 165 from February 17-21 is gone. The last   
   forecast which still held this number was on January 23 (see   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/forecasts/45DF/012345DF.txt) and on   
   January 24   
   (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/forecasts/45DF/012445DF.txt) it   
   changed.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8 on January 27-28, 5 on January 29   
   to February 7, 8 on February 8-9, and 5 again on February 10-23.   
      
   At 0617 UTC on January 22 an impact from a coronal mass ejection   
   caused the high-latitude college A index to reach 38, and sparked   
   aurora.  The index hit 38 again on January 25.  On January 23 around   
   0400 UTC a powerful M9 solar flare erupted, and this was right on   
   the threshold of becoming an X-class flare. The CME hit Earth around   
   1500 UTC on January 24, causing bright aurora.   
      
   Watch a lovely video of the event:   
   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ilr8p13A2o. Also check this British   
   report:   
   http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-01/24/sunspot-explosion and   
   this one from Montreal:   
   http://montreal.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20120124/norther   
   -lights-solar-s   
   torm-120124/20120124/?hub=MontrealHome.   
      
   As this bulletin is being written early Friday morning, sunspot   
   group 1408 is facing Earth directly, but it is weak. Group 1402 is   
   passing below the western horizon, and 1410 is coming around from   
   the east.   
      
   At http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ it looks like a very active region   
   is all the way on the other side of the Sun, at the 180 degree   
   meridian.   
      
   Fritz Huttelmayer, WB2QWH of Cheektowaga (Buffalo) New York wrote:   
   "I just wanted to give you my observations of six meters during the   
   contest this past weekend. I have been on six a couple of times over   
   the past two years, running an Icom IC-703 Plus into a 40 meter   
   attic dipole. I am not a serious VHF operator, as I operate mostly   
   HF QRP CW.   
      
   "I listened in on some of the activity during the January VHF   
   contest. I heard a W4 in Florida exchange grid squares with a W7 in   
   the state of Washington. Also heard were stations from Indiana,   
   Nevada, Texas, etc. The band sounded more like 20 meters on a good   
   day. No wonder they call it 'The Magic Band.'"   
      
   Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW of Tampa, Florida sent an article about solar   
   flares. Read it at   
   http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/classify-flares.html.   
      
   Mike also commented about a recent television signal he received   
   from XHTV (running 64 KW) in Mexico City: "On Tuesday, January 24 a   
   Mexican broadcaster on television channel 4 suddenly flashed upon   
   the screen for about five minutes (0002-0007 UTC) due to a   
   Sporadic-E flash event that produced a moderately strong signal   
   coming in with a color carrier and audio.   
      
   "The event occurred nine hours after the Coronal Mass Ejection had   
   hit the Earth's magnetic field at approximately 1500 UTC.   
      
   "Mexico City is 1,205 air mile distance at 245 degrees from my   
   location. The best part of an Es storm is that you do not have to   
   park your antenna at the precise azimuth toward the transmitter   
   tower site.   
      
   "In my case the antenna was aimed due south at 180 degrees, which   
   would be 65 degrees off the main beam."   
      
   Thanks, Mike!   
      
   Ron McCollum, W7GTF of Winthrop, Washington wrote to ask if I ever   
   heard any theories about the stock market correlating with the   
   sunspot cycle.   
      
   I have heard of the stock market theory, and various other   
   correlations with solar activity. Every time I hear of it, I think   
   back to my eighth grad math class, when the text had a chapter on   
   correlation, causation and post hoc fallacies. To illustrate, the   
   book displayed a graph comparing smoothed sunspot numbers with   
   cardboard box production in the United States.  They seemed to track   
   quite closely.   
      
   K7SJB years ago swore that periods of social unrest tracked with   
   sunspot numbers. "Tad. Remember how much fun we had in 1968-1970?,"   
   Stan would insist. "And the mania in securities trading till the   
   1929 crash?"   
      
   I get a lot of mail asking about this sort of thing. I like to   
   recall a presentation by Dr. James Alcock - professor of psychology   
   at York University, Canada - at Skeptic's Toolbox in Eugene Oregon   
   about the mind as a belief engine. One of the concepts presented was   
   that the human brain is hard wired for correlation and belief, and   
   how this figures into the evolution of the brain.   
      
   This weekend is the CW portion of the CQ World Wide 160-Meter   
   Contest. Expect good conditions, with quiet stable geomagnetic   
   indicators and a temporarily declining sunspot number. You can find   
   details at http://www.cq160.com/.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for January 19 through 25 were 117, 88, 102, 103,   
   108, 105, and 68, with a mean of 98.7. 10.7 cm flux was 157, 141.2,   
   141.6, 141, 144.3, 135.7, and 126.4, with a mean of 141. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 3, 4, 6, 21, 9, 17, and 14, with a mean of   
   10.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 3, 6, 22, 7, 13, and   
   17, with a mean of 9.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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