SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP053   
   ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP53   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53  ARLP053   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 30, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP053   
   ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   This is the last Propagation Forecast Bulletin of 2011.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers were up over the past week, 12.3   
   points or about 13 percent, to 107.6. Likewise, average daily solar   
   flux rose 14.2 points - or 11% - to 143.1.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for the near term is about the same, 145 on   
   December 30 through January 6. From January 7-8 predicted flux   
   values are 130, then 135 on January 9-12, and 140 on January 13-15.   
   Solar flux is expected to peak around 150 on January 24, then go to   
   a minimum of 130 on January 31 through February 4.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 10, 10 and 8 on December 30   
   through January 3, then 5 on January 4-27, and 8 on January 28-29.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled conditions December   
   30, quiet to unsettled December 31 to January 1, and quiet   
   conditions January 2-5.   
      
   Conditions should be good for Straight Key Night, the 24 hours in   
   which we celebrate our communications heritage with CW and manual   
   keys. See details at http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night.   
      
   Funny how these predictions sometimes turn out.  You can subscribe   
   to geomagnetic warnings from the Ionospheric Prediction Service,   
   part of the Australian Department of Industry, Science and   
   Resources.  They issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning at 0338z   
   on December 22, predicting quiet conditions prior to possible shock   
   arrival on December 24, active conditions possible December 25, and   
   unsettled to active conditions December 26.   
      
   A coronal mass ejection appeared to be in a geoeffective position,   
   meaning it was aimed at Earth. But apparently it missed us, and the   
   readings from magnetometers bear this out.  Check the A and K index   
   recordings at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt and   
   note all quiet around those dates. The high latitude college A index   
   (and the K index it is based on) from Fairbanks, Alaska was a flat   
   zero from December 23-28, and this is at a latitude that is most   
   affected by high solar activity.   
      
   You can subscribe to the IPS warnings via   
   http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info. Similar products   
   are available from NOAA SWPC at   
   https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/LoginWebForm.aspx.   
      
   This article   
   (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2079352) from Great   
   Britain's Daily Mail seems to warn of mayhem from a "massive solar   
   storm."   
      
   But in the body of the text, we see that NOAA's Space Weather   
   Prediction Center wrote: "Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are   
   expected 28 and 29 December due to multiple coronal mass ejection   
   arrivals. R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are expected until 31   
   December."   
      
   And here is a worse example, although I do not know if "Romania   
   Business Insider" is a real newspaper, but they do list a byline for   
   a reporter with an email address. The article at   
   http://www.romania-insider.com/high-intensity-solar-activity-in-   
   012-could-disru   
   pt-cell-phone-use-experts-warn/44588/   
   seems to recycle six-year-old news releases.   
      
   Note that the quote about "30 to 50% stronger" seems to be from this   
   news release from 70 months back:   
   http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/sunspot.shtml.  Of course the   
   latest predictions say 2013 instead of 2012, weaker and not   
   stronger, but I have no idea where that prediction for activity as   
   big as Cycle 19 in the late fifties came from. The latest cycle   
   forecast was issued a couple of weeks back:   
   http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml.   
      
   According to Robert Steenburgh, KA8JBY of Longmont, Colorado you can   
   monitor solar flare impacts on the ionosphere at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html. Since there hasn't been   
   much activity of late, you can check out past conditions in the   
   archive at http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/drap/index.html. An   
   experimental auroral forecast is at   
   http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/.   
      
   We don't know the precise daily average of sunspot numbers for the   
   calendar year, but with 99.5% of the data available, our figures are   
   pretty close.   
      
   Of course, a calendar year is an arbitrary period for averaging   
   sunspot numbers, but the yearly averages of daily sunspot numbers   
   for 2003-2011 are 109.2, 68.6, 48.9, 26.1, 12.8, 4.7, 5.1, 25.5 and   
   80.1. This is a good trend, and note that the average daily sunspot   
   numbers for the past 100 days (again, another arbitrary period) is   
   117.1, substantially higher than all of the past year, and higher   
   than all of 2003.   
      
   If you want to look at average sunspot numbers for every month since   
   January 1749 (that's 13,713 weeks) check   
   http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch/spot_num.txt.  Note these   
   are the lower International Sunspot Numbers, not the NOAA values we   
   give here.  Also note that the current Gregorian calendar was not   
   adopted in the United States until three years and eight months   
   after the beginning of this record.  Back then, it was all Julian   
   calendars.   
      
   Did you know that in 2011 we had only two days with zero sunspots?   
   In 2010 it was 51 days, and 2009 had 260 spotless days.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 22 through 28 were 105, 123, 101, 66,   
   110, 126, and 122, with a mean of 107.6. 10.7 cm flux was 145.8,   
   138.2, 142.8, 144.3, 145.6, 140.3, and 144.8, with a mean of 143.1.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, and 2, with a   
   mean of 1.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 2, 2, 3, 2, 2,   
   and 4, with a mean of 2.7.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
   ---   
                                   ========   
      
   IF you have questions or concerns regarding the accuracy   
   of information posted, or the opinions expressed, contact the content   
   originators directly.   All publications retransmitted as   
   fidonet echomail without alteration other than the removal of   
   email header and other control information which   
   is not part of the actual publication.   
      
   Providing   emergency   communications  assistance  to  your   
   neighbors and community isn't just a good thing to do,  it's   
   the first and foremost activity recognized in the U.s. rules   
   governing amateur radio in 47 CFR section 97.1. IF you enjoy   
   amateur  radio  remember  that  this  is  an  obligation you   
   tacitly agreed to when you acquired your license.   
      
      
      
   ---   
    * Origin: RRN BBS: Your fidonet ham radio connection! (1:116/901)