SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP040   
   ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP40   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 40  ARLP040   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 8, 2010   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP040   
   ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity quieted down over the past week.  There were no   
   sunspots on Wednesday and Thursday, October 6-7, and the average   
   daily sunspot number declined nearly 18 points to 27.6, compared to   
   the previous week.  Average daily solar flux values were off over   
   three points to 81.  Predicted solar flux for the next ten days,   
   October 8-17 is 76, 78, 78, 80, 80, 80, 80, 82, 81 and 83.   
      
   The same forecast predicts a planetary A index of 5 on October 8-10,   
   10 on October 11, 7 on October 12-14, and 5 on October 15-17.   
      
   Looking at the STEREO image (http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/) early   
   Friday morning shows an active region in our Sun's southern   
   hemisphere passing over the eastern horizon.  This has not yet   
   manifested any sunspot groups.  Currently the STEREO image covers   
   about 94.8% of the Sun's surface.  That coverage should reach 96% at   
   the end of October, 97.4% at the end of November, 98.7% at the end   
   of this year and 99.8% at the end of January 2011.  Finally on   
   February 7, 2011 STEREO should reach 100% coverage.   
      
   Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia sent in a report   
   nearly a week ago concerning Wednesday, September 29:   
      
   "Wednesday was a very good day for propagation, lots of Asiatic   
   Russians with good signals were worked around 0100z (Thursday Z   
   time) on 20 meters. Also JAs were heard after 2300z on 20 for the   
   first time in quite a while; JT1BV was near S9 on SSB. Thursday, my   
   day off, was not as good with 15 opening around 1300z (late) to EU   
   with some good signals mostly from southern EU. I heard no signals   
   all morning on 12 meters except for beacons including ZS6DN; CQs   
   toward ZS yielded nothing. In the evening XW1B was heard very weak   
   on 17 meters CW (had worked him a few days prior with better signal)   
   and on 20 CW at 0030 he was about S7 and commanding a CW pile-up. I   
   had quite a struggle catching 9M6XRO/p or 9M6DXX/p on IOTA OC-235   
   due to a disturbance at first, then my 20 meters amp failed and   
   couldn't crack the EU jungle calling on Sunday. I also had no luck   
   Monday around sunrise on 40 (high QRN in 9M6?), then finally   
   succeeded on 17 CW around 2200z Monday and that QSO was easy."   
      
   Larry Godek, W0OGH of Gilbert, Arizona send in this report on   
   October 1:   
      
   "What a week it's been on 15.  Europeans galore, VP8, DU, 5R8, YY0,   
   5X1, 8R1, 4Z5, EA7, YU, A71, OE, YO and HZ.  Early AM for the   
   Europeans and Middle East, around noon for Africa and the South   
   Atlantic/South Americas.  On the 19th I worked 7V2, 9H1 and ER4 on   
   SSB.  Makes you want to jump up and shout!  Now for that TS7 that   
   everyone is working and I can't even hear him.   
      
   "Some of the SSB contacts have been rough because I only have 100W   
   but playing the propagation game has paid off.  Getting thru the   
   Atlantic and Midwest wall is a chore indeed.  Trouble is that you   
   can't hear much of the folks to the east when they are working east   
   and south and you're working the same directions.   
      
   "I put up a 5 element 15 meter beam at 25 feet this spring expecting   
   great results.  Well I think it's helping a bit. A kW or bit more   
   power would do wonders but I'm sticking to my guns and doing it with   
   100W and better antennas."   
      
   Gordon Curling, VE3KKL of Kars, Ontario asked why the solar flux   
   numbers presented at the end of this bulletin are not the same   
   numbers he hears on WWV.   
      
   The solar flux values are actually from the same source at Penticton   
   in British Columbia.  The difference here is we present them   
   resolved to one-tenth of a point, but WWV rounds them off to whole   
   numbers.  So for example, on March 13 Gordon recorded 92 from WWV,   
   and the observatory reported 91.8.  On February 8 Gordon recorded 94   
   from WWV, and the observatory reported 93.7.   
      
   The same numbers reported on WWV are on the web at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt, and you can go to   
   http://snipurl.com/1a1dfj to see the original numbers.  Just look at   
   the noon daily reading (there are readings in the morning and   
   afternoon, but the noon reading is the official daily number) and   
   look at the observed solar flux in the fluxobsflux column.   
      
   Bob Karpinski, WB8B of Clinton Township, Michigan reports, "With the   
   recent spike in solar flux into the high 80s, 12 meters produced a   
   quick but nice little opening for me into EU around 1630z on October   
   2 with a 5w/QRP CW QSO with S57DX. By being in the right spot at the   
   right time of the day, QRP DX is still achievable and should only   
   get better on the higher HF bands this Winter with the flux finally   
   perking upwards."   
      
   On Oct 5th at 1530z Joe, CT1HZE from Southern Portugal reports a 2   
   meter sporadic-E opening to France.  Although the opening was just 8   
   minutes long and only one QSO was made with a French station over a   
   distance of about 1800 km, Joe notes this event is quite remarkable   
   as it is the first time that 2 meter Es were reported in the month   
   of October in Europe.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Find more good information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for September 30 through October 6 were 45, 44, 42,   
   28, 23, 11, and 0, with a mean of 27.6. 10.7 cm flux was 89.9, 86.7,   
   85, 80, 76.1, 75.4 and 74.2 with a mean of 81. Estimated planetary A   
   indices were 1, 3, 2, 3, 3, 6 and 8 with a mean of 3.7. Estimated   
   mid-latitude A indices were 1, 0, 0, 1, 2, 6 and 5 with a mean of   
   2.1.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
   .   
      
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