SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051   
   ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP51   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51  ARLP051   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 16, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP051   
   ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity dropped this week, with average daily sunspot numbers   
   declining over 39 points to 94.7.  It's been 13 weeks since the   
   average daily sunspot number for the week was that low or lower,   
   when Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP037 reported an average of   
   91.7.  The daily sunspot number has been lower than this week's   
   average starting December 12, when it was 70, and has since been 77,   
   65 and 44 through December 15.   
      
   No new sunspots emerged on December 9-12, then sunspot group 1376   
   appeared on December 13, and 1377 on December 14.   
      
   The latest USAF/NOAA forecast has solar flux for December 16-19 at   
   124, then 122 on December 20 and 120 on December 21-23. Then it   
   jumps to 150 on December 24-26, 140 on December 27-28, and 145 on   
   December 29 through January 4. It then rises to a maximum of 160 on   
   January 8-14, 2012.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 16-25, 8 on December   
   26-29, 5 on December 30 through January 4, 2012, 8 on January 5-6,   
   then 5 on January 7-21.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions December   
   16-18, quiet to unsettled December 19, unsettled December 20, and   
   quiet December 21-22.   
      
   Ed McKie, KB5GT of Yazoo City, Mississippi wrote in about a tool on   
   http://www.spaceweather.com for looking at past solar activity by   
   just entering a date.   
      
   It is at http://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotplotter.htm and Ed   
   notes that it hasn't been updated with new data as of a couple of   
   years back.  No word from the spaceweather.com web master, but   
   perhaps it wasn't meant to be updated, only providing looks at past   
   sunspot activity prior to the date it was created.   
      
   By the way, for a look at Ed's fine old radios, log in at QRZ.com   
   (free) and go to http://www.qrz.com/db/kb5gt. Click on the photo in   
   the upper right for a closer look.   
      
   Propagation reports for the ARRL 10 Meter contest last weekend were   
   positive.  Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington commented,   
   "Conditions during the ARRL 10 Meter Contest were great as expected   
   with the higher solar flux. Personally I feel 10 meter propagation   
   has not been this good for the contest since 2002."   
      
   He noted that for 2002 and 2003, solar flux in early December was   
   approximately 150 and 102.  For 2010 and 2011 it was 87 and 140.   
   Randy noted, "What a great change!  Listening to the QSOs, it was   
   like we all had a new horse to ride."   
      
   Rick Cincotta, KI4FW of Arlington, Virginia noted some curious short   
   skip propagation last weekend.  He writes, "During the 10m contest   
   on the East Coast in the morning and early afternoon (both days),   
   when the band was opened to Europe and the US West Coast (S9+), I   
   could hear stations, very weakly, calling from locations nearby,   
   closer than the usual E-S 'doughnut' that I'm familiar with from 6M   
   (these guys were from eastern OH, southern NY and northern NJ, RI,   
   CT, NC).  They never got louder than S1, but I could make out their   
   call signs if I cleaned the wax out of my ears and held my breath --   
   so to speak.  I'm QRP, so I was only able to work a couple of them   
   in NY."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14 were 142, 116, 90, 103,   
   70, 77, and 65, with a mean of 94.7. 10.7 cm flux was 144.8, 143.5,   
   140, 134.3, 131.5, 133.1, and 132, with a mean of 137. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 1, 1, 6, 4, 3, 3, and 1, with a mean of   
   2.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 6, 5, 4, 5, and 2,   
   with a mean of 3.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   Gentlemens' agreements ratified by IARU regions 1 and 2 have   
   designated a global "center of activity" frequency  in  each   
   of  the  international  hf  bands.  THese are similar to the   
   concept for weak signal calling and other center of activity   
   frequencies.  Three of these have been ratified worldwide.   
      
   THese  center of activity frequencies are where stations can   
   go to render or obtain emergency assistance.   
      
   WHen casually operating or  contesting  on  hf  please  make   
   yourself  aware  of  these  frequencies,  and give them some   
   space. Remember that often stations with emergency needs are   
   not  those  utilizing  high  gain antennas and maximum legal   
   power.   
      
   TO find out more, visit 14300.net or IARU web resources.   
      
      
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    * Origin: RRN BBS: Your fidonet ham radio connection! (1:116/901)