SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049   
   ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP49   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49  ARLP049   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  December 2, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP049   
   ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   November conveniently ended on the last day of this reporting   
   period, so now let's examine recent averages.  But first, if you   
   didn't see them, we had an extra bulletin on Monday morning, and   
   last week's bulletin was a day early.  You can find them archived at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Monday's   
   Propagation Forecast bulletin ARLP048 is especially important if you   
   keep a record of solar data, because it corrects 18 bad sunspot   
   numbers in bulletins 42, 43, 44 and 45.  This was due to errors   
   generated as they shift to a new system at NOAA. The corrected   
   numbers have also been uploaded to   
   http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp in the Updated Data File.   
      
   The current Cycle 24 continues its upturn. We have a new high for   
   the trailing three month daily sunspot number average.  Starting   
   with the three month period ending in December 2010, through   
   November 2011, they were 30.1, 35.3, 55.7, 72.3, 74.4, 65.9, 61.5,   
   63, 79.6, 98.6 and 118.8. There hasn't been a three month period   
   with average daily sunspot numbers above 118.8 since way back in   
   June, July and August 2003, when the average was 121.9. This was as   
   Cycle 23 was declining.   
      
   The monthly averages of daily sunspot numbers for August through   
   November 2011 were 66, 106.4, 123.6 and 133.1.   
      
   The latest forecast from NOAA/USAF has solar flux on December 2 at   
   145, 140 on December 3-5, 135 on December 6-7, 140, 150, 150 and   
   155, on December 8-11, and 160 on December 12-18, then 155 on   
   December 19-22.  Planetary A index on December 2-10 at 8, 8, 7, 8,   
   8, 5, 5, 8 and 8, then 5 on December 11-22. Look to   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html for a daily   
   update of this forecast.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague sees unsettled conditions on December   
   2, quiet to unsettled December 3-5, and quiet conditions December   
   6-8.   
      
   Conditions may not be as quiet as we would like (in terms of   
   geomagnetic disturbances) for the ARRL 160 Meter CW Contest this   
   weekend, but no major disruptions are anticipated either. Instead of   
   the predicted planetary A index of 8 or 7, we would prefer a   
   forecast with an A index of 5, or lower.  With conditions so quiet   
   over the past few years, 160 meter operators had some great   
   conditions to work with. For months at a time the NOAA/USAF forecast   
   would show planetary A index of 5 (for some reason it is never   
   predicted lower than that), and mail from 160 meter operators   
   praised the absence of solar activity that most HF operators   
   dreaded.   
      
   Although conditions at lower and middle latitudes were fairly quiet,   
   on Wednesday, November 30, polar geomagnetic indices were quite   
   active. You can see it at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt in the high latitude   
   college A and K index at University of Alaska, Fairbanks. They have   
   a nice web page devoted to geomagnetic activity at   
   http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast. They have a nice Auroral   
   Activity by Solar Rotation display (click on it to make it bigger),   
   and each line represents a complete rotation of our Sun, with a   
   range of dates covering 27-28 days. The display shows some recurring   
   activity, and currently you can see a spike of geomagnetic activity   
   from September 26-29 coming around again on October 25.   
      
   To check the readings on those dates, look at the quarterly records   
   at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/2011Q3_DGD.txt   
   and   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/2011Q4_DGD.txt.   
      
   Historical indices going back to 1994, including sunspot numbers and   
   solar flux, are at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/.   
      
   Daily reports at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/RSGA.html give us some   
   insight into what caused a disturbance on November 30. The report   
   for that day says "The geomagnetic field reached quiet to active   
   conditions with minor and major storm periods observed at high   
   latitudes.  Activity was attributed to a solar sector boundary   
   crossing (SSBC) at approximately 30/0810Z followed by a prolonged   
   period of southward Bz in the interplanetary magnetic field."   
      
   For information on what they mean by "solar sector boundary   
   crossing," see   
   http://www.reeve.com/Documents/Magnetometry%20Reports/Using%20SWPC%20RSGA.pdf.   
      
   WA8IWK, Allen Olender of West Bloomfield, Michigan sent a nice note   
   relating his joy over recent HF conditions: "I've spent more CW time   
   on 10 meters working amazing DX in the past 2 months than I have   
   spent on that band in the past 48 years combined!!  All with a   
   mobile antenna in my attic!  A great time for our hobby!"  You can   
   see a nice photo of Allen with some Boy Scouts at   
   http://www.qrz.com/db/wa8iwk, but these days you must log in to that   
   site.   
      
   Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia sent a detailed   
   report on his 10 meter single band effort for the CQ Worldwide CW   
   Contest last weekend.   
      
   But first, "On Tuesday (November 22), I logged T6MO (K9GY) in the   
   U.S. Army (Afghanistan) on 10 CW at sunrise. He was running 100   
   watts to a G5RV dipole, nice opening, but it was not to be as good   
   during the CQ WW."  Check http://www.qrz.com/db/t6mo for info on   
   T6MO.   
      
   And for the contest, "On Saturday, I turned on the radio at 1130Z   
   about 45 minutes before sunrise to find many 10 meter signals.   
   Africans were S9+ and quickly logged D4C and C5A. Europeans were   
   louder at about 100 degrees scatter path but by and large were loud   
   enough that they could hear me calling. Right around sunrise the   
   band opened direct path to EU and I started my best 5 hours of EU   
   running ever, averaging about 130-140 QSOs per hour. Signals from   
   eastern EU lasted until around 1500-1530Z. Activity was tremendous   
   from EU!  The Ukrainian turnout was tremendous as was the activity   
   from YO, OK. Conditions to the Moscow area were OK, but not nearly   
   as good as a month ago. During the weekend, 257 QSOs were made with   
   Germany.   
      
   "By about 1715Z darkness had pretty well closed the band except for   
   some loud EAs, Fs, and Is. Africa and stations very close to the   
   south (Cuba, Cayman Is., Turks & Caicos) to far away were loud.   
   During the contest ST2, C9, CN, CT3, C5, D4, EA8, EA9, EL, ZS, ZD8,   
   5X and 9L were logged from Africa. ZM4T was the first New Zealand   
   worked in the 17Z hour (5AM in ZL), KG6DX was booming in around   
   2040Z for first QSO of 4 with Guam, they were uniformly S9+ until   
   about 23Z, as was AH0BT. Unfortunately, a really good JA opening   
   never materialized with Saturday being the better day, only 55 JAs   
   were logged total. Surprisingly, three VKs in zone 29 were logged.   
   Other Pacific DX logged was TX8, ZK2, KH7, and E51MAN. JAs faded out   
   at 2315 and by 2330Z the band was nearly dead.   
      
   "Sunday, 10 meters was a bit slower to fully open to EU, but first   
   direct path signals arrived around 1210. UP0L in Kazakhstan was   
   logged scatter path. I worked my first zone 21s (A7 and HZ) and was   
   called by VU2KMS around 14Z. The EU opening lingered until around   
   19Z to very southern/western EU, but QSO volume was minimal past   
   about 1630Z. OH6AC was logged close to 19Z. Four total TFs were   
   worked including a mobile and OX3XR was worked around 21Z. Alaskans   
   were loud both days for hours, but not many casual ops from there   
   were active. Around sunset both days was the end of working much of   
   anything to the south. JAs were very poor Sunday with only about a   
   15 minute window when the big guns were moving the S meter.   
      
   "We still have room for improvement (higher solar flux), but 10 and   
   12 meters have been loads of fun since late September. The ARRL 10   
   meter contest should be a pretty major event on December 10-11."   
      
   Details on the upcoming ARRL 10 Meter Contest are at   
   http://www.arrl.org/10-meter.  This year there are some new   
   multipliers for working states in Mexico. A map showing states in   
   Mexico along with which are rare or easy is at   
   http://www.dxxe.org/concurso/xe-mults.pdf.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30 were 139, 171, 133, 123,   
   90, 106, and 111, with a mean of 124.7. 10.7 cm flux was 137.2,   
   135.2, 132.8, 135.2, 137.6, 140.6, and 144, with a mean of 137.5.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 3, 6, 4, 9, and 10, with a   
   mean of 5.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9,   
   and 9 with a mean of 5.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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