SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048   
   ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP48   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48  ARLP048   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 28, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP048   
   ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   This bulletin is issued Monday morning to fill the gap between the   
   early bulletin last week, and the regularly scheduled bulletin this   
   Friday.   
       
   I mentioned last week that the data at the end of each bulletin is   
   formatted so that the WA4TTK Solar Data Plotting Utility can parse   
   the data out of each bulletin and apply it to the graph.  Scott has   
   just put up a new data file that I sent him last week, running from   
   January 1, 1989 through November 22, 2011. With that updated data   
   file, you can use this bulletin to update the data through November   
   27, and apply data from subsequent bulletins on into the future.   
   You can download the program and the supplemental data file at   
   http://craigcentral.com/sol.asp.  The data file will be updated in   
   the next day or so to reflect some corrections to sunspot data noted   
   below.   
       
   I also mentioned recently that some of the sunspot numbers released   
   by NOAA didn't seem right.  I just got word from Mike Husler at NOAA   
   that data posted recently, like that record breaking day in which   
   the sunspot number hit 220, were wrong, and the corrected data is   
   now on their site.  His email said, "Sunspot Number, Sunspot Area,   
   Number of New Regions, Number of Spotted Regions, and Number of   
   Spots calculations were at times incorrect on the external web for   
   about 1 month.  The current values are the correct values.  Please   
   use them."   
       
   Not sure how to correct the record on this, except to note it here,   
   and if you are keeping track of data with this bulletin as a source,   
   that you go back and correct the bad data.   
       
   The correct data is posted here:   
       
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DSD.txt   
       
   Between October 18 and November 9 the data on 18 of those 23 days   
   was bad.  On October 18 the SSN changes from 155 to 144, October 19   
   162 to 140, October 20 195 to 159, October 21 207 to 184, October 23   
   128 to 102, October 24 151 to 125, October 25 147 to 121, October 26   
   104 to 91, October 27 98 to 85, October 28 104 to 91, November 1 141   
   to 129, November 2 121 to 109, November 3 161 to 149, November 4 100   
   to 88, November 5 135 to 123, November 6 144 to 132, November 8 160   
   to 148, and November 9 220 to 208.   
       
   This means that the data in propagation bulletins numbered 42, 43,   
   44 and 45 had partially bad data.   
       
   The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA shows solar flux at 140 on   
   November 28, 145 on November 29-30, and 150, 155, 155, 155, 160,   
   165, 165, 160, 160, 155, 150 and 140 on December 1-12, followed by   
   135 on December 13-19.   
       
   Planetary A index over the same period is 12, 18, 12, 10, and 8 on   
   November 28 through December 2, then 5 on December 3-24.   
       
   At 2220 UTC on November 27 the Australian IPS Radio and Space   
   Services issued an alert predicting a geomagnetic disturbance on   
   November 29-30, with unsettled to active conditions on November 29   
   and Active to Minor Storm November 30.  This is due to a wind stream   
   from a coronal hole.   
       
   Randy Leedy, WS4C of Greenville, South Carolina has some   
   observations on the CQ Worldwide CW DX contest:  "With good solar   
   numbers this year, I decided to try something new (for me) for CQWW   
   CW: go for 100 countries from my modest station of 100w to a tree-   
   hung antenna farm consisting of a G5RV and a trap dipole.  I started   
   at about 0030 and found the bands so exciting overnight that I never   
   went to bed.  I'd never have imagined that I would hit 100 countries   
   at breakfast time on Saturday, at about 1400."   
       
   "The toughest thing about the conditions was that from about 0900   
   on, most signals on 40 and 20m were coming in on both short and long   
   path, in many cases with both paths at nearly equal strengths,   
   making copy pretty rough on my single-element antennas.  Looking   
   back at my log, I can see that, if I had thought to try it, I could   
   probably have worked all continents (except Antarctica) within a   
   period of 10-15 minutes on 40m at about 0800, when pretty much the   
   whole dark hemisphere--plus an hour or two past the grayline--was   
   coming in strong."   
       
   "In closing, just a soapbox plea for ops calling in the big simplex   
   pileups:  don't spot your signal directly on the station running the   
   Q's, especially if you have a long call sign and a big amp and you   
   like to send slowly and often!  If all the callers tuned 50 hertz or   
   so above or below the station running Q's, everybody could hear him   
   much better, the rate would improve, and everyone would have a much   
   better shot at QSO."   
       
   Thanks Randy!   
       
   Glenn Packard, K4ZOT of Atlanta, Georgia had a blast on 10 meter FM   
   on Sunday, November 27.  "I had an unusual contact on 10 meters   
   today on 29.6 MHz at 2045 UTC from Atlanta, GA.  I saw Jamaica on   
   the DX clusters, a DX entity I do not have, and clicked on the spot   
   using my TS-850S.  I did not focus on the exact frequency until I   
   tried to tune-in the voice.  I soon realized it was FM at 29.600.  I   
   did get a response from 6Y1X on FM, but he could not get my entire   
   call sign.  I then called one more time and I got ZL2OK from   
   Northern NZ who was 5x5.  We exchanged signal reports, names and QTH   
   and he then faded away.  I then heard a K7 and a W6 on FM.  These   
   were my first FM contacts on 10 meters.  Interesting FM propagation   
   today on the upper end of 10 meters."   
       
   John Coleman, K5JVC of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma reports:  "I'm on   
   cloud nine!  I've received several stations from the Indian Ocean on   
   PSK31 over the last year, but as a QRP station I just couldn't make   
   contact with them.  Until tonight.  I made contact with FR5MV at   
   01:46z on 20 meters with 5 watts (FT-817) into a 22 ft commercial   
   multi-band vertical (Hygain AV-620).  I can't begin to tell you what   
   a great feeling it is to land a station 10,000 miles away with 5   
   watts that I've been watching for a year.  Where's my wine glass?!"   
       
   Vito Leo, ON6VL of Belgium writes, "With the incredible openings on   
   10m, I noticed that in the morning in Eu we hear VK/ZL both SP and   
   LP, which translates into significant echoes on the signals.  So   
   this week I tried to send very short 'dits' in full break-in mode   
   and managed to consistently hear my own signal going full circle   
   around the earth, going over South America (South West of me) and   
   coming back, I presume, from North East, on the back of my beam.   
   Beaming in other directions would not produce such echoes, which   
   confirms that this no artifact.  Kind of fun!  It's actually a neat   
   way to probe propagation without any external help or information."   
       
   Thanks, Vito!   
        
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
       
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/ .   
       
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
       
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
       
   Sunspot numbers for November 21 through 27 were 101, 132, 123, 139,   
   171, 133, and 123, with a mean of 131.7. 10.7 cm flux was 141.1,   
   142.4, 140, 137.2, 135.2, 132.8, and 135.2, with a mean of 137.7.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 5, 5, 4, 3, and 6, with a   
   mean of 4.9.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 7, 4, 4, 3,   
   4, and 5 with a mean of 4.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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