SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046   
   ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP46   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46  ARLP046   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 18, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP046   
   ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   This week geomagnetic indices quieted a bit, and so did solar   
   activity in general.  Sunspot numbers reached a high of 220 on   
   November 9, and this week declined, rose to 176 then declined again.   
   Average daily sunspot numbers slipped 8.4 points to 145. Average   
   daily solar flux dropped 12.5 points to 161.2.   
      
   The most recent forecast predicts a bit lower activity than we've   
   seen recently.  Predicted solar flux from NOAA and USAF shows flux   
   values of 150 on November 18-19, 155 on November 20-24, 150 on   
   November 25, and 145 on November 26-28, then rising to 165 on   
   December 4-7, which is just a few days before the ARRL 10 Meter   
   Contest.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index for November 18-19 is 7 and 8, then 5 on   
   November 20-25, 7 on November 26-27, and 5 on November 28 through   
   December 8.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague has their own take, with unsettled   
   conditions November 18, quiet to unsettled November 19, and quiet   
   November 20-24.   
      
   Conditions should be good for the ARRL SSB Sweepstakes Contest this   
   weekend, which runs from 2100z Saturday, November 19, until 0259z   
   Monday, November 21.  See http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes for full   
   details.   
      
   Space.com has an interesting article concerning whether or not the   
   Sun is really headed for a grand minima, as some have suggested. The   
   study they cite suggests that an increase in solar activity over the   
   next few decades is just as likely as a decrease. In other words,   
   nobody knows!  See the article at   
   http://www.space.com/13660-solar-activity-cycle-grand-minimum.html.   
      
   Jimmy Mahuron, K9JWJ of Salem, Indiana pointed out that the sunspot   
   record at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt no longer   
   matches what we've reported in past bulletins. I have an inquiry to   
   NOAA about this.  We reported a sunspot number of 220 on November 9,   
   but now that same source shows 208 for that day. More on this next   
   week, no doubt.   
      
   Lots of fun to be had on 10 and 6 meters over the past week.  Chuck   
   Dennis, WA5ZTD wrote: "Your article about 10 meters being open was   
   sure right.  11/11/2011 at around 9 AM PST (1700z) on just 100 watts   
   and a buddipole up about 20 feet from Hillsboro Oregon, I was able   
   to work IK4WKU in northern Italy and I heard a station in northern   
   Ireland, Argentina, and Brazil. Sure hope it lasts a while."   
      
   Tad Marko, KC5UWS of Flower Mound, Texas writes: "The QRP story in   
   your recent ARRL Propagation update reminds me of my recent first   
   QRP contact. I have had a Yaesu FT-817 for a while now, but had yet   
   to make a contact with it as of 2011-10-26. I had just gotten home   
   from work, the kids were playing outside and I had a few minutes   
   before dinner, so I attached my Miracle Whip antenna to the '817 and   
   carried it outside. I perched it precariously atop a short ladder   
   and started tuning up the 10m band. At 28.430 I hear a CQ and make   
   out '4MAX' from the call. I'm thinking maybe I'm making 800 miles or   
   so to the east coast. I reply, not expecting anything, but I get a   
   response. It's VK4MAX in Queensland Australia! My first QRP contact   
   is 5w to go 8,300 miles using a compact antenna! He was a solid 59   
   on my end, and though I was only 41 on his end, he was able to copy   
   my call sign and we had a short QSO. He was absolutely astounded and   
   so was I. This was a very timely contact as I was about to give up   
   on QRP. I know this isn't typical, but it sure was fun."   
      
   Actually Tad, it may be more typical than you think!  We hear many   
   such stories lately with all the recent solar activity.   
      
   6 meter reports are from K7JA and K7CW.   
      
   Chip Margelli, K7JA of Garden Grove, California wrote: "Worked   
   LU9EHF on November 14 at 0136 UTC on 50 MHz SSB via F2. Also VY2OX   
   and VY2ZM November 15, around 1835 UTC along with VE2DLC and several   
   W1 stations.   
      
   "Earlier QSOs included ZL1RS on November 1 (around 2325 UTC), ZL1RS   
   also on October 24 at 2234 UTC, TX7M on October 25 at 1945 UTC,   
   E51CG on October 26 at 0143 UTC, and VK4FNQ and VK4BKP on October 26   
   around 0150 UTC."   
      
   Paul Kiesel, K7CW of Tahuya, Washington wrote: "I got T32C and FO4BM   
   on October 13. This might have been Es link to TEP. On October 24 I   
   worked FK8CP and on October 26, I worked seven VK4 stations. I think   
   these contacts likely were Es link to F2 due to the high angle to   
   the perpendicular with the geomagnetic equator.   
      
   "The last couple of days (November 13-15), I've gotten VEs 1, 2, 3   
   and 9 and VY2 along with Ws 1, 2, 3 and 4. Today (November 15) had   
   propagation all the way down to South Florida, whereas yesterday and   
   the day before were limited to the northern states and southern   
   Canada."   
      
   And finally, if you love Morse code, don't miss this unusual video   
   in which Kristen Haring talks about knitting in Morse code patterns.   
   She wrote a book a few years back called "Ham Radio's Technical   
   Culture" which many radio amateurs hated, but I found unusual and   
   quite interesting. Thanks to W0PV for the tip:   
   http://www.youtube.com/user/OHSTcolloquia#p/a/u/1/hoiuYw5pVQ4   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 10 through 16 were 152, 127, 155, 142,   
   176, 137, and 126, with a mean of 145. 10.7 cm flux was 178.6,   
   173.9, 168.8, 155.3, 161.1, 148.3, and 142.3, with a mean of 161.2.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 2, 2, 0, 0, 6, and 2, with a   
   mean of 2.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 7,   
   and 3 with a mean of 3.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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