SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045   
   ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP45   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45  ARLP045   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 11, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP045   
   ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Another sunspot number record for Cycle 24 was shattered on   
   Wednesday, November 9 when the daily sunspot number reached 220.   
   This is the highest the daily sunspot number has been in over eight   
   years. The last time the sunspot number was higher than 220 was   
   November 1, 2003 when the number was 277. The next day (November 10)   
   the daily sunspot number dropped back to 164.   
      
   Two days prior to the sunspot number reaching 277 in 2003, the   
   sunspot number was 330, a much harder record to beat.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers this week rose over 53 points compared   
   to last week, to 153.4. Average daily solar flux rose nearly 39   
   points to 173.7.   
      
   The latest prediction from NOAA/USAF has solar flux at 180 on   
   November 11-12, 175 on November 13-14, 170 on November 15-17, and   
   160, 155, 145, 140, 135, 135 and 140 on November 18-24, and 145 on   
   November 25-28.   
      
   Planetary A index is predicted at 10, 20 and 15 on November 11-13,   
   then 5 on November 14-25, and 7 on November 26-27.   
      
   The A index of 20 predicted for November 12 seems to reflect a   
   warning from IPS Radio and Space Services (in Australia) at 2330 UTC   
   on November 9. It announced expected increased geomagnetic activity   
   November 10-12, with quiet conditions November 10, unsettled to   
   active with isolated minor storm levels on November 11, and quiet to   
   unsettled with isolated active levels on November 12.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague says look for quiet to unsettled   
   conditions November 11, unsettled to active November 12, quiet to   
   unsettled again on November 13, and quiet November 14-17.   
      
   Much attention has been focused over the past few days on sunspot   
   group 1339, which is now rotating through the region that has   
   maximum effect on Earth, right around the center of the visible   
   solar disk. National Geographic has an article about this at   
   http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/11/111110-sunspots-   
   r1339-earth-jup   
   iter-solar-flare-auroras-space-science/.   
      
   If you like solar reports with dramatic music, check out a video on   
   1339 at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31gF4YG72D4, and note that   
   you can select a higher resolution and larger screen image. Pay no   
   attention to much of the material that appears after this video   
   about the Mayan calendar, mysterious invisible planets, UFOs,   
   end-of-the world asteroids, etc.   
      
   Sky and Telescope also features a piece on 1339 at   
   http://www.skyandtelescope.com/news/home/Sunspot-Points-at-Earth   
   133471378.html.   
   Check out the gallery of photos at   
   http://www.solarham.com/gallery/index.php/2011-Photos/nov2_2011_1339.   
      
   Sebastian Costa, W4AS of Cutler Bay (Miami area), Florida wrote   
   about an interesting experience this week with very low power.   
      
   He writes, "On Tuesday November 9, 2011 at 0121 UTC, I was listening   
   on 20 meters SSB. On my panoramic adapter, I saw a very strong   
   signal. It was Jerry, P40GH in Aruba.   
      
   "His signal was often 30-40 dB over S9 on my Elecraft K3 and Force   
   12 C-3SS tri-bander. I decided to give him a call barefoot, and   
   after a couple of tries, he came back to me, and we had a short QSO   
   as he was running quite a pileup.   
      
   "I kept the rig on his frequency, and a few minutes later he asked   
   if there were any QRP or mobile stations, I quickly brought the   
   power down to 5 watts and called him. He said I was still S9+, and   
   that he would listen as I dropped my power. With 2 watts output, he   
   said I was about S7. Down to 1 watt I was still S7.   
      
   "So I thought, well what happens with 500 milliwatts?  At that   
   'power' I received an S5 report. Finally, I went down to 100   
   milliwatts, and at that 'power' he said I could still be copied!   
      
   "It reminds me of years ago as a kid, I received a CB walkie-talkie   
   for Christmas one year, and with the 100 milliwatts it had, I was   
   excited to talk to my neighbor across the street. And now with the   
   great conditions we have, that same amount of power (albeit with a   
   much better antenna), can work well over 1,000 miles."   
      
   Scott Woelm, WX0V of Fridley, Minnesota writes, "When Bill, ND0B   
   asked me for a 17m CW sked request (via the K3UK Sked Page), on   
   10/25/11, I laughed. Bill is in ND, I am in MN. Fat chance. I was   
   wrong; Bill was solid! We had a nice aurora opening. Needing ND on   
   multiple bands via QRP, Bill got me 20m, 17m, 15m, 12m, and 10m.   
   This was from 0121z through 0207z. That was fun!"   
      
   Scott mentioned the K3UK sked page, which you can find at   
   http://www.obriensweb.com/sked/.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for November 3 through 9 were 161, 100, 135, 144,   
   154, 160, and 220, with a mean of 153.4. 10.7 cm flux was 160.4,   
   163.9, 171.9, 176.7, 182.1, 181, and 180.2, with a mean of 173.7.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 6, and 2, with a   
   mean of 3.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 6,   
   and 2 with a mean of 3.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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