SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044   
   ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP44   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44  ARLP044   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  November 4, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP044   
   ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   First, a few solar cycle updates. As you might suspect, the average   
   daily sunspot numbers for October shot way up, from 55.5 in June, to   
   67.2 in July, 66 in August, 106.4 in September, and 123.6 in   
   October.   
      
   Our three month moving average of daily sunspot numbers was also up,   
   of course, with the three month average ending in October at 98.6,   
   up from 61.5 in July, 63 at the end of August, and 70.6 ending in   
   September.   
      
   Because of increasing solar activity, for the third consecutive   
   month NASA revised its prediction for the peak of the current solar   
   cycle, each time estimating higher intensity and changing the   
   projection for the month the cycle is expected to peak.   
      
   Note that these numbers are not the higher Boulder sunspot numbers   
   we report here, but the much lower Zurich numbers. They are also   
   smoothed sunspot numbers, meaning they represent an average taken   
   over a year, with the indicated month in the middle.   
      
   September 1 they moved the expected peak from June 2013 to May 2013,   
   and the smoothed sunspot number from 69 to 70. At one time they were   
   predicting a maximum nearly the same as the 1907 maximum of Cycle   
   19, 64.2, but of course recent predictions are substantially above   
   that value. NASA noted that the current cycle would still be the   
   smallest in the past hundred years.   
      
   A month later on October 3 they upped it again, with the maximum   
   smoothed sunspot number jumping from 70 to 77, and the peak moving   
   again, this time from May to April 2013. But at this level, it would   
   still be the weakest cycle in 100 years.   
      
   This time on November 2 their prediction made a big jump, from 77 to   
   89, but with the peak moving back out, this time from April to May   
   2013. This makes the cycle slightly bigger and longer, and instead   
   of 100 years, it is the smallest solar cycle in over 80 years.   
      
   Their prediction for solar max jumped nearly 30% in three months -   
   not bad. Still, a graphic comparing the beginning of this cycle with   
   the last three shows how weak it really is.  See   
   http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp.html. But note this is a 13   
   month moving average, so the latest point on the graph is over 6   
   months ago, and the higher activity is recent.   
      
   The latest prediction from NOAA and USAF for the near term has solar   
   flux at 165 on November 4-10, 160 on November 11, and 150 on   
   November 12-15, 160 on November 16, and peaking again at 165 on   
   November 17-18, then falling to 155, 145, 140 and 130 on November   
   19-22.   
      
   For November 4-6 the predicted planetary A index is 15, 10, and 8,   
   then 5 on November 7-10, 12, 10, 8, and 5 on November 8-10, 8 on   
   November 11-13, and 5 again on November 14-23.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions   
   November 4, unsettled November 5, quiet to unsettled November 6, and   
   quiet conditions November 7-10.   
      
   A huge sunspot group, number 1339, with an area of 1400 millionths   
   of a solar hemisphere has rotated into view. There was one new   
   sunspot group on October 30, three more on October 31, another two   
   on November 1, and another new one on November 2. On Thursday,   
   November 3, sunspot group 1339 was reported to be the biggest   
   sunspot in a number of years. The total sunspot area for that day   
   was 2005 millions of a solar hemisphere, and a larger total sunspot   
   area has not been observed since July 18-23, 2004, when total   
   sunspot areas were 2300, 2325, 2190, 2420, 2070, and 2050. It is   
   interesting that no new sunspots appeared during that period, and   
   the daily sunspot numbers were 169, 176, 147, 162, 117 and 86 over   
   those same six days.   
      
   The Sun is currently peppered with spots, so don't be surprised if a   
   solar flare is released, possibly disrupting HF radio communications   
   if it is aimed at earth.  MSNBC ran an article on the latest solar   
   activity, which you can read at,   
   http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45157211/ns/technology_and_science-space/.   
      
   You can also watch a video of a flare from sunspot group 1339 at,   
   http://www.universetoday.com/90653/largest-sunspot-in-years-now-on-the-sun/.   
      
   Note that you can select twice the default resolution by clicking on   
   the 360p at the bottom, and restarting the video. This gives a very   
   good picture for full screen viewing, accessed by clicking in the   
   lower right of the screen.   
      
   Scott Smith, VK2AET of New South Wales, Australia wrote to say, "I   
   was enjoying a CW contact with the USA on 10 meters today (November   
   3) at 2015 UTC when all of a sudden the band went completely dead.   
   Before this I had just worked EA8 which was quite exciting. After   
   this fadeout there were no signals at all on 10 meters. It appeared   
   so dead that I thought my antenna had fallen down and I had to look   
   out the window at it. Here in VK we get a great indicator of 10   
   meter propagation by listening to 27.025 MHz where US CBers are   
   usually well over S9 when the band is in good shape.  These guys had   
   also disappeared completely whereas half an hour before they were   
   their usual strength."   
      
   Scott must have observed an effect from the X-Class solar flare,   
   which peaked about 12 minutes later at 2027 UTC. That is the same   
   flare reported in the article at Universe Today linked above.   
      
   ARRL CW Sweepstakes is this weekend, and the current solar activity   
   should make 10 meters especially productive. See   
   http://www.arrl.org/news/2011-arrl-cw-sweepstakes-are-you-ready.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at,   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 27 through November 2 were 98, 104, 73,   
   80, 112, 141, and 121, with a mean of 104.1. 10.7 cm flux was 131.5,   
   133.9, 123, 126.7, 138.1, 138.6, and 153.6, with a mean of 135.1.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 2, 2, 6, 8, 21, and 11, with a   
   mean of 7.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 1, 2, 4, 9,   
   14, and 7 with a mean of 5.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   of information posted, or the opinions expressed, contact the content   
   originators directly.   All publications retransmitted as   
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   Gentlemens' agreements ratified by IARU regions 1 and 2 have   
   designated a global "center of activity" frequency  in  each   
   of  the  international  hf  bands.  THese are similar to the   
   concept for weak signal calling and other center of activity   
   frequencies.  Three of these have been ratified worldwide.   
      
   THese  center of activity frequencies are where stations can   
   go to render or obtain emergency assistance.   
      
   WHen casually operating or  contesting  on  hf  please  make   
   yourself  aware  of  these  frequencies,  and give them some   
   space. Remember that often stations with emergency needs are   
   not  those  utilizing  high  gain antennas and maximum legal   
   power.   
      
   TO find out more, visit 14300.net or IARU web resources.   
      
      
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    * Origin: RRN BBS: Your fidonet ham radio connection! (1:116/901)