SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043   
   ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP43   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43  ARLP043   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 28, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP043   
   ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   The day last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 was   
   released - Friday, October 21 - the daily sunspot number broke   
   another record for cycle 24, when it rose to 207. You have to look   
   back to November 26, 2003 when it was two points higher, 209, to   
   find a number at least as high.   
      
   But average daily sunspot number for the week was off by two points   
   to 156.6, and average daily solar flux rose nearly 8 points to   
   151.8.   
      
   How much higher will it go?  Latest prediction shows sunspot   
   activity peaking between February and July 2013, so there would seem   
   to be plenty of opportunity for more daily sunspot readings of 207   
   and higher.   
      
   Propagation on HF is quite exciting right now, with 10 meters   
   opening up world wide daily. Based on recent conditions, working the   
   CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest this weekend should offer plenty of   
   fun.   
      
   The latest predicted solar flux is 130 on October 28-31, 125 on   
   November 1, 120 on November 2-5, then 125 and 130 for November 6-7   
   and 135 on November 8-10. Flux values for the near term are expected   
   to peak at 165 on November 17-18.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 7, 8, 10 and 10 on October 28-31 and   
   5 on October 31 through November 3, 8 on November 4-5, 5 on November   
   6-10 and 8 on November 11-13.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions   
   October 28, unsettled October 29, quiet to unsettled October 30 and   
   quiet October 31 through November 3.   
      
   A week ago (October 21) we received this update from Jeff Hartley,   
   N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia, and in the first part he was   
   referring to the sunspot number reaching 195 the day before: "Whoo   
   hoo! Actually, things sounded a bit better the 2 days prior to last   
   night. It's fairly commonplace at 2100Z to hear JAs and western EU   
   at the same time on 12 meters! I had a solid QSO (S5) with BG4AEC   
   (China) running 100 watts and a vertical on 10 meters SSB around   
   0015Z on Oct 19, past the peak of propagation. It's hard to get much   
   done because the radio is too much of a draw! Unfortunately, the   
   flooding in SE Asia seems to be keeping the rare countries (XV, XU,   
   XZ) off the air. K3ZO is in Thailand but unable to operate much   
   because HS0AC is being used for emergency communications. Cars are   
   being parked on bridges and upper levels of garages to avoid the   
   flooding! I hear 9M6XRO almost daily on either 12 or 10 meters."   
      
   Speaking about the Draconids meteor shower, Jon Jones, N0JK of   
   Wichita, Kansas wrote: "The Dracs would have been big news a year   
   ago on VHF, but with all the F2 and TEP being worked on 6M this   
   fall, it kind of puts the Draconids meteor shower on the back   
   burner.  One important 'lesson' from it is the astronomer's   
   predictions of meteor shower outbursts are much better now and more   
   accurate."   
      
   Check this video of some solar events a few days ago:   
   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vspRCZ8ISBI.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 20 through 26 were 195, 207, 164, 128,   
   151, 147, and 104, with a mean of 156.6. 10.7 cm flux was 159.1,   
   167.8, 164.1, 155.5, 145.3, 138.8, and 132.2, with a mean of 151.8.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 3, 3, 23, 33, and 3, with a   
   mean of 10.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 5, 2, 2, 16,   
   27, and 4 with a mean of 8.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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