SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042   
   ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP42   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42  ARLP042   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 21, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP042   
   ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Our Sun continues to be very active, with most days revealing more   
   sunspots. We saw one new sunspot group on October 9, another on   
   October 10, then two more on October 11 and two more on October 12.   
   Then another on October 13, two more on October 15, two more on   
   October 17, one more on October 19 and three more on October 20.   
   There have been 28 new sunspot groups making an appearance in the   
   last 30 days.   
      
   But the biggest news is the sunspot number yesterday, Thursday,   
   October 20.  The daily sunspot number was 195, a level not equaled   
   or bettered since nearly eight years ago, on November 26, 2003, when   
   it was 209. The closest the daily sunspot number came to equaling   
   Thursday's value was on July 4, 2005 when it was 192.   
      
   Average daily sunspot number rose over 66% this week, or 63.2 points   
   (October 13-19) over last, to 158.6, and average daily solar flux   
   for the same period rose over 15% (or 19.1 points) to 144.2. With   
   the geomagnetic indices this week below the previous week, radio   
   amateurs have frequently been working stations on other continents   
   as late as midnight on ten meters. The bands are alive.   
      
   The latest forecast from USAF/NOAA shows solar flux at 160 from   
   October 21-22, 155 and 150 on October 23-24, 145 on October 25-27,   
   135 on October 28, then 130 on October 29 through November 3. Note   
   that for the next few days, this represents a substantial increase   
   over what was reported one day ago in the ARRL Letter. That was   
   based on Wednesday's prediction, which showed 145 on October 20,   
   when the actual value turned out to be 159.1.   
      
   Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on October 21-27, 8 on October   
   28-30 and 5 on October 31 through November 2, and 8 on November 3-5.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague shows quiet conditions October 21-13,   
   quiet to unsettled October 24, and quiet again October 25-27.   
      
   Mike Shaffer, KA3JAW in Tampa, Florida (EL87) reported his   
   observations of the Draconid meteor shower on October 8, 2011   
   between 1600-2100 UTC. He said there is no chance of seeing the   
   shower in North America because of a waxing gibbous moon.   
      
   Mike decided to use signals from Cuban analog television on channel   
   2, seeing if he could detect reflections off the meteor trails. At   
   1732 UTC he noticed elevated signal to noise ratio on the video   
   carrier frequency, 55.25 MHz. At 1900 UTC 2 meter meteor scatter was   
   occurring over Central Europe, with propagation from the UK to   
   Russia. The rate peaked at 2010 UTC, with stations from Sweden to   
   Israel joining in.   
      
   Mike wrote, "Meteor scatter signals were observed at the following   
   times: 1847, 1857, 1909 and 2000 UTC with a bright white video   
   raster scan flash observed on the TV screen and/or audio tics,   
   whistles, pings lasting anywhere between a quarter to one second in   
   duration.   
      
   "You don't need professional grade equipment to achieve results. In   
   my case it was done with a minimum amount of hardware, a pre-1995   
   13-inch color television set that does not have video mute circuits   
   (blue screen when no signal is present) with 25 feet of RG-6   
   low-loss satellite coax cable coupled to a non-amplified low-VHF   
   'cut-to-band' outdoor television antenna that is mounted 10 feet off   
   the ground.   
      
   "If you want to achieve more efficiency with increasing your meteor   
   detection rates, obtain a low noise, medium to high gain (10-20 dB)   
   antenna preamplifier placed near the antenna feed-point.   
      
   "Meteor scatter signals can be heard roughly from 300 to 1,000 km   
   distance."   
      
   Thanks, Mike!   
      
   Jon Jones, N0JK reported a peak rate of 660 meteors per hour   
   centered on 2010 UTC October 8.  He was QRV in EM28 on both 6 and 2   
   meters. Nothing heard on 2 meters, but he did see action on 6 meters   
   on 50.125 MHz.   
      
   Jon writes, "I worked W6OAL DM79 at 1958 UTC and K7TNT DN74 at 2013   
   UTC, both random on SSB.   
      
   "W6OAL was quite loud, K7TNT peaked to 5x9 but mostly not as strong.   
   He was in almost all the time on residuals, heard him work K0MVJ   
   EN35 MN and K9ZM EN50. The meteors seemed to peak between 1945-2030   
   UTC.   
      
   "A sharp drop off after 2030 UTC, but interesting meteor scatter   
   conditions in the middle of the afternoon. The Draconids are a   
   'slow' shower as the meteors strike the ionosphere at 20 km/sec vs.   
   60 km/sec for the Perseids. Thus the ionization per meteor would be   
   lower. The peak time of visual observed meteors in Europe correlated   
   with radio reflections on 50 MHz."   
      
   Pat Dyer, WA5IYX of San Antonio, Texas reported on October 13:   
   "While the N-S 6m paths to South America from here continue to   
   improve as the cycle advances, the recent FK8CP (New Caledonia)   
   paths have come as a pleasant surprise here.   
      
   "The best so far was 2330z Oct 09 - 0020z Oct 10 where FK8CP reached   
   as high as a true S7 on the meter.  The US footprint was initially   
   limited to Central and East Texas along a narrow-latitude belt (it   
   did eventually extend as far east as the New Orleans area).  This is   
   in keeping with the F2F2 mode involving a critical set of angles in   
   the geometry.  Later that evening (US time) FK8CP was reported from   
   a wider range of states, NM, CO, et al.  (My last 6m FK QSOs were in   
   Cycle 22 back in 1989 and 1991.)   
      
   "24 hours later his signals here were fleeting, but he was worked in   
   Western and West Central Florida.  Again, the US footprint was only   
   about 2-deg wide in N-S latitude extent (though the Gulf of Mexico   
   may have well obscured a wider range there).   
      
   "As can be seen from Sherlock DX map plots, Florida is the favored   
   US QTH for these daily 6 meter South American paths.  The paths   
   often spread across to Mexico (to within 600-700 mi south of here),   
   often making one wish for an Es-linking event!   
      
   "The 47-48 MHz Chilean FM broadcast signals   
   (http://www.qsl.net/ce3sad/6m.html) provide excellent high-power MUF   
   indicators for that region, but they will often show just how   
   sluggish things can be to move up the next 2-MHz into 6 meters   
   proper!  These are relatively-high ERP signals with probably good   
   transmitter locations vs. the other 2-way land-mobile signals in   
   many regions down there that used to serve as propagation clues   
   (they are also 24/7!)   
      
   "From here the best crossing angles of the geomagnetic equator have   
   their land endpoints in the CE0 islands.  For over four decades now   
   many have seen a strong need for some reliable 6 meter beacon(s) to   
   be established down there to confirm our suspicions of just how good   
   those paths are.  The few well-equipped and dedicated 6 meter   
   expeditions to those areas at the best time(s) of the year (and   
   Cycle) HAVE been very productive."   
      
   On October 14 we received this report from Ted Saba, KN5O of   
   Covington, Louisiana: "I worked Remi, FK8CP, on 6M on 10/9/2011 at   
   2341z on SSB with 5/1 signals both directions and on CW at 2346z   
   with 5/1-2/9 signals both directions.  I'm located in EM40xl.  This   
   was my longest DX QSO since working Japan.  I was hoping to snag   
   Fred, KH7Y, to complete my 6M WAS that same evening, but the   
   propagation never made it as far east as my QTH.   
      
   "Shortly after working Remi, I called my friend Dallas Ward, K1DW,   
   and he was also able to work him on CW. K1DW is also located in   
   EM40."   
      
   Steve Moles, N5MX of Pawhuska, Oklahoma wrote: "I was able to work   
   FR/DJ7RJ (Willi) on 15 October 2011 at approximately 1832 UTC on 15m   
   SSB. It was my first FR contact. Today (16 October 2011) I heard and   
   worked FR4NT (Cyril, on Reunion Island) on 10m SSB at approximately   
   1625 UTC. I had Cyril 59 into my home in northern OK and he had me   
   59 into Reunion. Both QSOs are approximately 10421 miles (16771 km)   
   from my home. What a difference a few sunspots make! I remember not   
   too long ago having a SFI in the low 60s, today is only 138, but it   
   makes so much difference. It is so nice to hear the upper bands open   
   consistently."   
      
   Thanks, Steve for sharing the excitement!   
      
   Peter Dougherty, W2IRT of West Caldwell, New Jersey wrote on October   
   18: "With today's SFI of 153, low Ap/Kp numbers and an SSN of 165 I   
   naturally expected 10 to be decent but I was not expecting this:   
   I've been chasing new WAZ Zones on 10 since things started to take   
   off last month but all the prediction software and even N6BT's own   
   awesomely-detailed charts in the ARRL Antenna Book were saying Zone   
   18 to Zone 5 on 10m just wasn't in the cards until the Flux hit   
   'very high' levels, i.e. over 200. Just after noon local (1600z)   
   UA0BA from Norilsk was a solid S9 into New Jersey. This is more than   
   six hours after his sunset at 69 degrees north latitude! I continued   
   to listen and even an hour and a half later he'd built up to S9+10dB   
   peaking 20-over (albeit with more arctic flutter). Just a few   
   minutes later RI1FJA from Franz Josef Land was blasting through on   
   10m SSB, also peaking over S9."   
      
   Thanks, Peter.  That's fantastic. We are also seeing 10 meters open   
   here worldwide on the West Coast as late as midnight!   
      
   Sylvain Faust, VE2FET of Sainte Anne Des Lacs, Quebec wrote: "I only   
   had a few countries on 10M before Saturday.  After 3 to 4 hours on   
   Saturday and an hour or 2 on Sunday, as you can see on the top of   
   the page (DXCC per Band) I now have 109 countries on 10M! Amazing!"   
      
   That is remarkable.  He also sent a link to his logs, at   
   http://www.ve2fet.com/logbook.aspx, and there is a photo gallery at   
   http://www.ve2fet.com/gallery1/index.htm. You really should see him   
   at age 13 (in 1978) on television at   
   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIq44Z2JpxA. Good chance to practice   
   Le Francais Quebecois.   
      
   Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington has achieved a state of   
   radio bliss: "The time we have all been waiting for has arrived.   
   Solar activity has advanced to the point where the high bands have   
   really come alive, Solid propagation on 15M throughout the day, and   
   world wide openings on 10 and 12 Meters - conditions not seen since   
   2003. Barring a major storm, the CQWW contest later this month   
   should be hot, in addition to the ARRL 10M contest in December. The   
   real 'breakout' occurred mid February of this year as the Sunspot   
   Count and Solar Flux clearly exceeded its 2 1/2 year doldrums lows   
   and ushered in what we are seeing today. It has been a long, long   
   dry spell for the higher bands, now 10 and 12 Meter DX Spots   
   dominate the Packet Clusters. There will be other dividends of the   
   higher solar activity: Long Path Propagation on 20M will be a   
   regular occurrence along with increased night time propagation on   
   40/30 and 80 Meters as the F layers residual ionization holds thru   
   the night and into the morning gray line. Good times especially for   
   us in the Northern Hemisphere, and for all."   
      
   Jeff, N8II wrote: "12 and 10M conditions have been outstanding most   
   days with JT logged on 12M around 24Z, BA/BD logged on both 12 and   
   10 from 23-0030Z. I had a drone of EU signals calling thanks to a   
   cluster spot on 10M around 1500Z on October 17, the loudest were   
   S9+20dB.  I also had a run of mostly UA3/RA3 area stations on 10M   
   Friday the 14th that lasted from 1315-1400Z including a call from   
   UN7; there were still loud Russians from around Moscow on 10 M past   
   15Z. Also, I was called by E21EJC in Thailand on 12M CW while   
   working 4L1MA around 1320Z on the 17th. VU2GSM was loud on 10M SSB   
   at around 1445Z on the 16th. We have reached the point where good EU   
   openings occur almost daily on 10 and JAs are loud as well about 70%   
   of the time, some JAs S9+20dB, extremely loud for this area."   
      
   Check this article on sunspot observations by Samuel Heinrich   
   Schwabe at,   
   http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1110/1110.3620v1.pdf.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for October 13 through 19 were 147, 157, 166, 158,   
   165, 155, and 162, with a mean of 158.6. 10.7 cm flux was 137.6,   
   136.1, 137.7, 151, 152.6, 146.8, and 147.3, with a mean of 144.2.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 2, 8, 7, 4, 5, and 7, with a   
   mean of 5.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 1, 4, 7, 2, 5,   
   and 5 with a mean of 3.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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