SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP040   
   ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP40   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 40  ARLP040   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  October 7, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP040   
   ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Sunspot excitement continues, with daily images of our Sun peppered   
   with spots.  Average daily sunspot numbers for the week were about   
   the same as the previous week, increasing from 96.1 to 96.7.  The   
   average daily solar flux dropped from 155.5 to 132.6.  Our three   
   month moving average of sunspot numbers puts us into activity levels   
   last seen in mid-2004.   
      
   September is over, so now let us look at our 3-month moving average   
   of sunspot numbers.  The 3-month moving averages for this year -   
   centered on January through August (August would include numbers   
   from July, August and September) - were 35.3, 55.7, 72.3, 74.4,   
   65.9, 61.5, 63 and 79.6.  The jump to 79.6 is a big increase. The   
   3-month moving average centered on June 2004 was 80.8, which was the   
   last time the average was near 80.   
      
   The latest NOAA/USAF forecast shows solar flux at 125 on October 7,   
   130 on October 8-13, 110 on October 14-16, 115 and 120 on October   
   17-18, and 125 on October 19-29.   
      
   The Planetary A index prediction shows 10 on October 7, 8 on October   
   8 and 5 on October 9-27 followed by 8 on October 28-30.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions   
   on October 7-8, unsettled October 9-10, and quiet on October 11-13.   
      
   The monthly sunspot maximum prediction from NASA has the next   
   sunspot maximum moving forward a month from May to April 2013, with   
   the sunspot maximum 7 points higher. Last month, the peak was   
   predicted to be a smoothed sunspot number of 70 in May 2013, and now   
   the number is 77 in April 2013.   
      
   You can read it here:   
   http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml.   
      
   Note that these are International Sunspot Numbers, which are much   
   lower than the Boulder numbers reported in this bulletin.   
      
   Last week we had a report from Fred Honnold, KH7Y of Hawaii with 6   
   meter news. A week ago he sent this follow-up, so when he refers to   
   Wednesday night that is September 28 and "last night" is Thursday,   
   September 29. Fred writes: "Wednesday night worked 21 VK4s, very   
   interesting all in the 4th district. Earlier in the evening worked   
   LU5FF. Yesterday worked ZP5SNA, TI7/N5BEK, LU5FF, 3 PYs, no VKs or   
   DU. Just Central and South America. I had a YV and HC call me, but   
   no QSOs with them.   
      
   "Another very interesting QSO last night worth chatting about. I   
   worked Peter, PP5XX that is a 12,500 km path, and within a few   
   minutes, Peter PP5XX worked BV2DQ, long path, 20,000 km path. Not   
   bad for 6 meters.   
      
   "I have been trying to make sense out of the JPL TEC map and my   
   openings. Sure does not make sense and the timing seems to be much   
   different. Like I will be in a blue area with the red area going   
   over south America and I am still working stations. Sometimes I am   
   under red and so it says DU and nothing. I need to read up on this!!   
   That 20,000 km QSO between PP5XX and BV2DQ is exciting for sure."   
      
   The TEC map he refers to shows Total Electron Content of the   
   ionosphere. You can see the real-time map at   
   http://iono.jpl.nasa.gov//latest_rti_global.html.   
      
   Joe Flamini, W4BXG of White Hall, Virginia writes: "Worked Cardiff,   
   Wales on 10M mobile on my way to work on the September 27. Worked   
   Puerto Rico on 10M on my way home. Wow! 'bout time!"   
      
   Bill Tynan, W3XO of Kerrville, Texas says that Sunday, October 2 was   
   his best day in the new solar cycle for 6 meters. He lists a bunch   
   of calls from South America, and notes, "Although many classify all   
   north/south propagation as TEP, I contend that much of it is F2.   
   Certainly the HCs who are north of the geomagnetic equator are NOT   
   TEP. On 6 meters, I run 700 W to a 50ft boom M2 at 70 ft."   
      
   TEP refers to trans-equatorial propagation.   
      
   Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA was interviewed in a Tampa, Florida   
   television news story about "solar storms." Carl hadn't seen it when   
   reached in England, where he was headed to an RSGB convention,   
   perhaps to give a presentation on propagation. Read it at   
   http://www.abcactionnews.com/dpp/news/science_tech/fact-or-ficti   
   n%3F-the-hype-s   
   urrounding-solar-storms.   
      
   RSGB has an educational web page on VHF propagation. Read it at   
   http://www.rsgb.org/psc/vhf-propagation.php.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for September 29 through October 5 were 99, 89, 86,   
   92, 85, 126, and 100, with a mean of 96.7. 10.7 cm flux was 136.6,   
   138.1, 136.9, 130.9, 128.9, 130.3, and 126.7, with a mean of 132.6.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 15, 8, 9, 11, 6, 6, and 20, with   
   a mean of 10.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 16, 5, 12, 7,   
   3, 4, and 12 with a mean of 8.4.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   Gentlemens' agreements ratified by IARU regions 1 and 2 have   
   designated a global "center of activity" frequency  in  each   
   of  the  international  hf  bands.  THese are similar to the   
   concept for weak signal calling and other center of activity   
   frequencies.  Three of these have been ratified worldwide.   
      
   THese  center of activity frequencies are where stations can   
   go to render or obtain emergency assistance.   
      
   WHen casually operating or  contesting  on  hf  please  make   
   yourself  aware  of  these  frequencies,  and give them some   
   space. Remember that often stations with emergency needs are   
   not  those  utilizing  high  gain antennas and maximum legal   
   power.   
      
   TO find out more, visit 14300.net or IARU web resources.   
      
      
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