SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038   
   ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP38   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38  ARLP038   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  September 23, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP038   
   ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Compared to the uneventful past few years, sunspot activity was   
   truly remarkable this week. Daily sunspot number for September 16   
   was 173, a level that hasn't been reached since over six years ago,   
   way back on July 5, 2005 in Cycle 23, when the sunspot number was   
   181.   
      
   Solar flux reached 150.1 on September 18. Just six months ago it was   
   slightly higher - 153 on March 7 and 155 on March 8 - but prior to   
   that the only higher number was 157.3 on August 22, 2005, about 7   
   weeks after the sunspot number of 181.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers for the past reporting week (Thursday   
   through Wednesday, September 15-21) we up over 45 points from the   
   previous week to 137, and average daily solar flux rose nearly 22   
   points to 144.   
      
   Currently the solar flux and planetary A index forecast from   
   USAF/NOAA calls for solar flux of 155, 160, 165 and 170 on September   
   23-26, 175 on September 27-30, 130 on October 1, and 135 on October   
   2-5.   
      
   These flux values through September 30 are quite a bit higher than   
   the values predicted a day earlier, and run in the ARRL Letter.   
      
   Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on September 23, 15 on September   
   24-25, 5 and 8 on September 26-27, 5 on September 28-30, 8 on   
   October 1, and 5 on October 2-7.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague sees quiet conditions September 23-25,   
   quiet to unsettled September 26-27, and quiet again on September   
   28-29.   
      
   At 2323 UTC IPS Radio and Space Services in Australia issue a   
   warning of upcoming geomagnetic disturbance on September 24-25 due   
   to a coronal mass ejection.   
      
   You can download the latest (October) edition of WorldRadio Online   
   at http://www.worldradiomagazine.com/ to read this month's   
   Propagation column from Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, on pages 30-33.   
   This month's effort uses ray tracings from the Proplab-Pro software   
   (http://www.spacew.com/proplab/) to help explain refraction,   
   absorption and polarization of radio signals.   
      
   Today is the Fall Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere.  In fact I am   
   writing these words at the exact time of the equinox, right at 0905   
   UTC on September 23.   
      
   Angel Santana, WP3GW of Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico is excited about   
   all the new solar activity right around the equinox. He wrote,   
   "Almost two weeks ago I did not have much luck on the Work All   
   Europe SSB contest. On 20 and 40 meters I only had 77 QSOs. But last   
   Saturday September 17 at about 1500 UTC 10 meters exploded with   
   European stations. Did someone say sunspot numbers over 100, and   
   everybody got on the air?   
      
   "First to work was F4EZJ, then OT4A who even asked if there were a   
   contest, for the fast pace of the contacts. Even worked 5B4AIF and   
   went to 12 meters and worked EA9IB. Returned to 10 and some even   
   answered my call. Later at 2000 UTC went to 12 meters and worked   
   another bunch of Europeans. If this is a preview of the upcoming   
   contest period, we're in for a roll!"   
      
   Rob Steenburgh, KA8JBY says the Space Weather Prediction Center now   
   has a Facebook page.  Check   
   http://www.facebook.com/pages/NOAA-NWS-Space-Weather-Prediction-   
   enter/232532740   
   131296.   
   NW7US has a similar Space Weather and Radio Resources page at   
   https://www.facebook.com/spacewx.hfradio.   
      
   Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote: "I knew it   
   was probably going to be a good day (September 16) when 4W6A was the   
   first signal heard on 21295 at around 1200Z; he was not workable,   
   running EUs I couldn't hear. 20 sounded fair, logging BP100 (Taiwan)   
   and BA8AG. Then a quick check of 15 at 1245Z showed 4W6A up to about   
   S4-5 and looking for 'North America only'; after several tries, he   
   was in the log; he was busy. By 1300Z, EU signals were loud on 15   
   and 12M was opening up to EU. On 12m, I logged 4K9W, OM5DP,  and   
   OE3GCU, then checked 10M at 1314Z to find YL2SM S7 running 4/4 Yagis   
   and a KW; he was getting very few CQ answers. At 1416Z I found   
   E21EJC in Thailand signing with a station on 28005 CW. Kob was about   
   S5-6 and gave me a '599, very loud' report, what a surprise!   
   Eventually at 1418Z, I had a nice CW run of stations on 10M as far   
   as the Ukraine and as far north as SP and HA and west as PA. After   
   checking 12M to find good signals from RA3CQ and SK2AT. Starting at   
   1457Z I was able to run Europeans on 10M phone with some having S9+   
   signals as far west as EI3JS, north to DJ8CG, and east to 9A1HDE.   
      
   "After a long break, I returned to some of the best late day 12M   
   conditions to EU I can ever remember. Between 1856 and 1933Z, I ran   
   off about 25 EU SSB QSOs including SM5FQQ and six SQ/SPs. Everybody   
   was loud; I never got down to the weak ones until right at the end.   
   Then, a check of 10M yielded a SSB QSO with EC1KR at 1935Z who was   
   S7.   
      
   "Saturday September 17, the Scandinavian Activity Contest CW started   
   at 1200Z which is only about an hour after sunrise. By 1220Z when I   
   fired up, OH9W is very northern Finland had a good signal on 15. OH   
   was the best place to be in almost all of EU for a while; LAs were   
   very weak and EU stations calling the OHs were much weaker than they   
   were, pretty ideal conditions for the contest! By 1330Z, SMs and LAs   
   were much better and 10M was open over a scatter path beaming 90-120   
   degrees over southern Africa which persisted until past 1500Z. I   
   managed to make 15 Scandinavian scatter path QSOs on 10; the loudest   
   were good copy about S3-4, but most were right near the noise level.   
   LN3Z and OH3MEP were the loudest. 20M at 1500Z was not very good and   
   the K index was rising; it is 5 as of 2000Z! 40 and 80 were horrible   
   to Scandinavia at 0130Z, but improved quite a bit by 0330Z. There   
   were some loud northern Scandinavians on 20 at 0130Z and others   
   reported 15M open as late as 2300Z."   
      
   Jimmy Mahuron, K9JWJ of Salem, Indiana and several other readers   
   sent in a link to an article from NASA Science News titled "The   
   Secret Life of Solar Flares." Read it at   
   http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/19sep_secretlives/.   
      
   Jon Pollock, K0ZN of De Soto, Kansas writes: "I was on 17 M this   
   evening (September 18) and found signals were extremely strong to   
   both E and W (I live just west of Kansas City) late into the   
   evening. I worked WA2MDF at about 9:30 PM CDT and he was running   
   well over S-9 with 100 W and a 170 ft. end fed long wire. About 30   
   min. later I worked K6GVG in San Diego at about 10:15 CDT. He was   
   peaking 20 dB over S-9 at times! These are some of the strongest   
   signals I have heard in a long time on 17 M at this hour of the   
   night...and from both coasts nearly simultaneously. The band was   
   very quiet (low noise) which usually means very long skip. I also   
   heard some weak JAs and VKs in the CW band. Antenna here is nothing   
   fancy: a 128 ft. Center Fed Zepp at 40 ft. Conditions tonight   
   reminded me of the 'good old days' (previous sunspot peaks)."   
      
   Fred Honnold, KH7Y of Ocean View, Hawaii (the SSW corner of the Big   
   Island) wrote on September 18: "Wanted to let you know we have been   
   having excellent TEP (Trans-Equatorial) openings on 6 meters the   
   last two weeks. In the last week I worked FK8CP, E51USA, A35CT, many   
   VK, JA, DU, VR2XMT, BA7s SI IO, and BD7OH.  During last night's   
   opening TV from china on 49.749 MHz was 40 dB over S9 at times. The   
   6 meter band was full of sync buzz for about three hours. A very   
   exciting evening! Seems the openings start about 0600 UTC and can   
   last till 1000 UTC just about every night here in Hawaii."   
      
   Reg Beck, VE7IG of Williams Lake, British Columbia (at 52.13 degrees   
   north latitude) wrote: "I was up in the middle of the night and   
   checked 12m around 0930Z on 17 Sept here in VE7. It was wide open   
   over the North Pole into Europe and central Asia. I logged a lot of   
   Europeans and some Asians in zone 17. I couldn't get through the big   
   pileup to JT1DX but he was loud at times. The band was up and down   
   with very loud signals suddenly dropping down then coming up with   
   flutter then clearing then flutter again then weak, etc. The opening   
   lasted past 1000Z then went out."   
      
   Julio Medina, NP3CW of San Juan, Puerto Rico wrote: "Today   
   (September 16) we had a good opening to Europe with signals from 559   
   to 579 on 28.050 from 1445-1737 UTC. Stations worked: OH1ND, IK1RGK,   
   SP1KQR, DF9KF, DL1KUR, DL7UAG, DL7HC, OK1DKO, 4X4FW, DL6DCD, DL1DAW,   
   DJ3EF, DL5MGH, DJ2RG, DL/KJ4HFR, DJ1YU, G0TBD, DF8BY, DL6HRW, HB9US,   
   F8GFA, F8PEU, DH8IAB, EI7CC, F6GVC, EA4RU/M, F5DM, M0BAU, G4GGZ,   
   OK1BN, GU4HUY, M0CYR, and G4EVR."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for September 15 through 21 were 167, 173, 138, 144,   
   128, 101, and 108, with a mean of 137. 10.7 cm flux was 140.7,   
   143.1, 144.8, 150.1, 140.9, 144.3, and 144.2, with a mean of 144.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 2, 32, 5, 3, 6, and 2, with a   
   mean of 7.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 2, 14, 5, 2,   
   6, and 2 with a mean of 5.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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   Gentlemens' agreements ratified by IARU regions 1 and 2 have   
   designated a global "center of activity" frequency  in  each   
   of  the  international  hf  bands.  THese are similar to the   
   concept for weak signal calling and other center of activity   
   frequencies.  Three of these have been ratified worldwide.   
      
   THese  center of activity frequencies are where stations can   
   go to render or obtain emergency assistance.   
      
   WHen casually operating or  contesting  on  hf  please  make   
   yourself  aware  of  these  frequencies,  and give them some   
   space. Remember that often stations with emergency needs are   
   not  those  utilizing  high  gain antennas and maximum legal   
   power.   
      
   TO find out more, visit 14300.net or IARU web resources.   
      
      
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