SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP037   
   ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP37   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37  ARLP037   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  September 16, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP037   
   ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Although average daily sunspot numbers are lower - down nearly 13   
   points to 91.7 - average daily solar flux is higher by 6.7 points   
   (to 122.2) and solar activity is rising rapidly.  You could see it   
   coming earlier this week by glancing at the STEREO mission (at   
   http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov) when you looked at the back side of the   
   Sun. Lots of activity was evident, and you can still see quite a bit   
   more (those white patches) just over the eastern horizon, which is   
   on the left side of the image beyond -90 degrees.   
      
   The image of the daily Sun at http://spaceweather.com/ shows a disc   
   peppered with sunspots, a welcome sight after watching the current   
   solar cycle appear to stall.   
      
   Numerous CME events disturbed Earth's magnetic field, and the   
   planetary A index record shows September 9, 10 and 12 were the most   
   active days, with the index at 36, 33 and 27.   
      
   The Autumnal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere is just a week away,   
   September 23 at 0905 UTC, which is 5:05 AM EDT or 02:05 AM PDT.   
   Luckily, the increased sunspot activity should continue.   
      
   The updated prediction for solar flux and planetary A index from   
   USAF/NOAA sure changed from Wednesday to Thursday.  Solar flux is   
   predicted to be lower than earlier thought and planetary A index   
   higher.   
      
   Wednesday's prediction had solar flux at 145 on September 15-17, and   
   150 September 18-22.  On Thursday, September 15 the actual solar   
   flux was 140.7.   
      
   Thursday's forecast has solar flux at 140 on September 16-17, 135 on   
   September 18-19, 130 on September 20, and 125, 120, 120 and 110 on   
   September 21-24, and 115 on September 25-29.  Predicted planetary A   
   index is 10, 20 and 15 on September 16-18, 5 on September 19-23, 7   
   on September 24-25, 5 on September 26-29, and 15 on September 30.   
      
   You can compare the September 14-15 forecasts at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions September   
   16-17, quiet to unsettled September 18, active on September 19,   
   quiet to unsettled September 20, and quiet again on September 21-22.   
      
   Ed Richmond of South Carolina writes, "I usually live on 6 meters   
   during the summer sporadic season. The propagation went downhill at   
   the end of August, and I more or less quit the band.  However, on   
   September 9, I noticed some spots on the DX reflector of an opening   
   into northwest South America, and decided to take a look.   
      
   "I heard an S9+ signal on CW and thought it might be a local.  When   
   he signed as HK7AAG (Colombia) I nearly fell off my chair. I called   
   and worked him, and about two minutes later, heard HC1HC (Ecuador),   
   not as loud but copyable. I called and worked him as well.  A few   
   minutes later I worked YV5ZV in Caracas. I had not expected any of   
   this, since September has statistically the lowest incidence of   
   sporadic-E propagation.   
      
   "The whole thing is even more amazing, because I live in a CC&R   
   neighborhood, and my 6 meter antenna is a dipole mounted about 35   
   feet high in the attic. I'm always amazed at what I have been able   
   to work with that antenna in four years on 6 meters.   
      
   "Of course, my QTH doesn't hurt either. I live on Harbor Island   
   (EM92sj) 14 miles out from Beaufort, SC, on a barrier island.  My   
   QTH is right on a salt marsh that looks out on the Atlantic Ocean.   
      
   "Will continue to check 6 meters for some TEP this month.  Hope I   
   get lucky."   
      
   Thanks, Ed!   
      
   Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI of Costa Rica sent an article from New   
   Scientist suggesting that a big enough CME could deposit radiation   
   in low earth orbit around the earth that could persist for decades.   
   Scott wonders if there would be a long lasting effect on radio   
   propagation.  Read it at   
   http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21128294.300.   
      
   Mike Schaffer of Tampa, Florida (EL87) monitors television   
   broadcasts across Central America via sporadic-E.   
      
   On September 10 he wrote, "This morning at 1436 UTC I received a   
   analog NTSC broadcast from Televisora Nacional, TVN-2, HOU in Panama   
   City, Republic of Panama via sporadic-E at a distance of 1,320 air   
   miles."   
      
   On September 9 Mike wrote, "At 2110 UTC on Friday, September 9, 2011   
   F2 propagation was noticed on NTSC analog channel 2 coming from due   
   south from South America.   
      
   "The first thing I noticed was what appeared to be a out of phase   
   sporadic-E taken place but the video would not sync lock even though   
   the signal was at moderate signal levels with only light fading.   
   Then the video appeared with warped diagonal, horizontal and   
   vertical scroll bars.   
      
   "The audio was almost non existent to weak with multi-path   
   distortion that produced a fair amount of scatter reflections. The   
   audio was so muffled that the TV mono speaker was not good enough.   
   To correct this effect stereo headphones were used.   
      
   "What struck me was that the Spanish audio dialect was not the   
   normal that I am accustomed to hearing from other DX propagation   
   modes from Mexico, Central America countries or northern coast of   
   South America.   
      
   "At 2135 UTC the F2 storm had peaked at my location. At this point a   
   manual channel scan was performed on all VHF low, high, and UHF 14,   
   15 and 16 channels. The results indicated the maximum usable   
   frequency did not exceed the audio carrier at 59.75 MHz.   
      
   "At 2203 the storm declined to a moderate state. It was at this time   
   a weak Spanish black & white video program appeared lasting   
   perhaps five seconds in duration.   
      
   "I would suspect that it was either coming from Quito, Ecuador at   
   1,950 miles or Lima, Peru at 2,779 miles distance because the   
   bearing to both cities from my QTH is at 171 degrees in azimuth.   
      
   "Minimum F2 single-hop paths can start roughly 2,000 miles and reach   
   a maximum of to 3,000 miles.   
      
   "At 2223 the F2 geomagnetic storm rapidly faded back to normal   
   conditions."   
      
   On September 5 Mike wrote, "At 0001 UTC, a second northern Es event   
   took place on 90.1, CBC Radio 2 airing the Strombo show from   
   Sunbury, Ontario, Canada rushed in like a local broadcaster at 1,300   
   miles distance."   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for September 8 through 14 were 47, 65, 77, 94, 97,   
   118, and 144, with a mean of 91.7. 10.7 cm flux was 110.1, 111.8,   
   116.2, 121.3, 123.9, 129.4, and 142.6, with a mean of 122.2.   
   Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 36, 33, 9, 27, 17, and 4, with   
   a mean of 18.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 13, 20, 8,   
   17, 11, and 5, with a mean of 10.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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