SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034   
   ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP34   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34  ARLP034   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  August 26, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP034   
   ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity rose this week, with the average daily sunspot number   
   increasing over 40 points to 66, and average daily solar flux up   
   over 13 points to 101.9.   
      
   Predicted solar flux for August 26 is 110, and 115 for August 27-28,   
   110 for August 29 to September 1, 105 for September 2-3, 100 for   
   September 4-5, 95 on September 6-7, and bottoming out at 90 on   
   September 8-12.  The next peak of activity is predicted for   
   September 22-23.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 for August 26-27, 10 on August 28,   
   8 on August 29, and 5 on August 30 through September 2, then 8 on   
   September 3, 10 on September 4-6, 7 on September 7, and 5 on   
   September 8-10.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for August   
   26, unsettled on August 27-28, quiet to unsettled August 29 and   
   quiet conditions on August 30 through September 1.   
      
   A story forwarded from a British newspaper by a reader warned that   
   "a huge mass of electrically charged particles thrown out by a giant   
   eruption on the Sun is due to strike the earth tonight." But the   
   article itself is undated, and the web page continuously updates to   
   show the current date. The link to the article was sent to me on   
   August 21, but the event didn't happen then, and is not happening   
   now, nor is such an event predicted for the next few days. Down the   
   left margin of the page are ads for astrologers, and on the right   
   margin are links to over 80 stories about celebrity gossip.   
      
   If you do a web search for phrases from the article - which is at   
   http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-200952/power-cuts-threat   
   sun-storm-hits-   
   earth.html   
   - you find it quoted all over the net by people assuming that this   
   is about to happen, some of them quite alarmed. But looking at the   
   latest prediction from NOAA/USAF at   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html shows no   
   predicted rise in the A index, which would be large if such an event   
   were predicted.   
      
   So what date was the article published? I doubt if this newspaper   
   has had a science editor for a number of years, so perhaps they keep   
   running the same article with its dire warnings, and only the   
   celebrity gossip changes.   
      
   The key to the date of this article lies in searching the newspaper   
   archive for the headline.  If you enter a portion of the headline   
   into the search box next to the article, the actual date is   
   revealed: October 29, 2003.  This is nearly eight years ago.  Now we   
   know why nobody predicted this event. In these fast moving times,   
   2003 might seem to some like ancient history.   
      
   Try doing a web search of a phrase from this article. Some of the   
   results are quite funny.  You will see it referenced all over the   
   web as if it just happened and were breaking news.   
      
   Last week's bulletin mentioned the new issue of WorldRadio expected   
   last Saturday, which would have an updated propagation column by   
   K9LA.  The new September issue didn't actually appear online until   
   several days later.  You can read it now at   
   http://www.worldradiomagazine.com.   
      
   The propagation column by K9LA, Carl Luetzelschwab pays tribute to   
   the late Bob Brown, NM7M and his writings about propagation for the   
   amateur community.  Carl mentions that one of Bob's popular books is   
   available for download from Carl's web site.  Just go to   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/ and click on General on the   
   left side of the page, then right-click the link for "Little   
   Pistol's Guide to HF Propagation" to download the PDF.   
      
   We are just a few weeks away from the Autumnal Equinox, a time when   
   we see better HF propagation than we did during the summer. You can   
   check the effect of seasonal change by running two instances of a   
   propagation program, and switching back and forth to see the same   
   projection over two different dates.   
      
   You can download W6ELprop from http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/ and try   
   what I did, which was to compare August 2 with September 22.  The   
   predicted smoothed sunspot number for August was 59, and for   
   September it is 62.  You could use those numbers, or use the same   
   sunspot number on both projections to isolate the seasonal effect.   
      
   I ran my projection between Atlanta, Georgia and England.  You bring   
   up Atlanta coordinates in W6ELprop by entering the prefix W4, and   
   England with the G prefix.  You can see the generally improved   
   signal strengths and longer openings in the September prediction.   
      
   If you want the latest smoothed sunspot numbers for this month and   
   off into the future, go to   
   http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1875.pdf and look at the   
   table on page 18.  Every 4-5 issues they have an updated projection   
   for the current solar cycle.   
      
   Finally, do you think Cycle 24 is weaker and still progressing   
   slower than previous solar cycles?  You are correct.  For a   
   comparison of Cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24, check   
   http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp.html.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service web page at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the   
   numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past   
   propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.   
      
   Find more good information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la.   
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for August 18 through 24 were 53, 46, 59, 66, 82,   
   81, and 75, with a mean of 66. 10.7 cm flux was 97.8, 98.2, 100.5,   
   100.9, 108.2, 103.7, and 104.1, with a mean of 101.9. Estimated   
   planetary A indices were 3, 2, 5, 3, 7, 9, and 6, with a mean of 5.   
   Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 1, 4, 3, 5, 8, and 5, with   
   a mean of 3.9.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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