SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033   
   ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   ZCZC AP33   
   QST de W1AW     
   Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33  ARLP033   
   From Tad Cook, K7RA   
   Seattle, WA  August 19, 2011   
   To all radio amateurs    
      
   SB PROP ARL ARLP033   
   ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA   
      
   Solar activity was down again this week, and the sunspot number on   
   Sunday, August 14, went all the way to zero, for the first time   
   since January 27, which was 29 weeks ago.   
      
   Average daily sunspot numbers declined nearly 50 points, to 25.6,   
   and average daily solar flux was down nearly 16 points to 88.5.   
      
   The latest prediction from NOAA/USAF on August 18 has solar flux at   
   98 on August 19, 100 on August 20-22, 105 on August 23-25, then 110   
   and 115, on August 26-27, then 110 on August 28-31.  Solar flux is   
   expected to bottom out at 90 on September 8-12.   
      
   Predicted planetary A index is 5 on August 19-20, 8 and 12 on August   
   21-22, 5 on August 23-25, 10, 10 and 8 on August 26-28, and 5 again   
   on August 29 to September 2.   
      
   Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions on August   
   19-20, unsettled August 21, quiet to unsettled August 22-24, and   
   quiet again on August 25.   
      
   Thanks to Max White, M0VNG of Worcester, England for sending along   
   this story from NASA, "Solar Flares:  What does it take to be   
   X-class?"   
      
   http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/X-class-flares.html   
      
   Max and several other readers, including Douglas Schauer sent in   
   some articles about using helioseismology to predict the appearance   
   of sunspots.  See    
   http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/08/18/BAER1KNIRO.DTL ,   
   http://www.space.com/12668-sunspot-prediction-solar-storms-warning.html,    
   http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_18711817,   
   http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=sunspot-early-detection and   
   http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44193066/ns/technology_and_science-s   
   ace/#.Tk5RkmMdz   
   ZI.   
      
   One of the best articles on this subject is from astronomer Phil   
   Plait's blog.  Read it at    
   http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2011/08/19/scient   
   sts-see-sunspot   
   s-forming-60000-km-below-the-suns-surface/.   
      
   Also, don't miss this video about coronal mass ejections tracked by   
   STEREO craft, posted by Tomas Hood, NW7US, Propagation Editor at CQ   
   Magazine:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVD3OnigFFE    
      
   Brad Miskimen, N5LUL of Amarillo, Texas was in the Ten-Ten   
   International QSO Party (a ten meter phone contest) on the evening   
   of August 5 working stations in Florida, Georgia, Tennessee,   
   Delaware and North Caroline, most S9, and some as much as 40 db over   
   S9, when suddenly at 0244z, "the door slammed shut.  I have never   
   seen/heard everyone disappear within 10 seconds.  But that's what I   
   experienced.  Total silence!"   
      
   If we check http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DGD.txt we   
   see that geomagnetic indices show a great deal of activity right   
   around that time, with the planetary K index reaching 8, just one   
   point below the maximum K index, which is 9.  Checking   
   http://www.spaceweather.com for that day and the next (use the   
   archives feature in the upper right) shows that a CME strike on   
   August 5 "sparked one of the strongest geomagnetic storms in years".   
      
   Dan Soderlund, KB0EO of Northfield, Minnesota wrote, "I was   
   operating off and on all day Saturday August 13 on 17 meters.  Late   
   in the afternoon (around 2200 UTC), I had my antenna pointed toward   
   Europe and was working hams in western EU.  All of a sudden, I   
   started getting JAs calling off the back of the antenna.  I turned   
   the antenna toward JA and made about 40 QSOs with Japan - all   
   stations at least S6 and most were S9 plus.  This lasted for about   
   an hour and then the propagation just vanished.  The interesting   
   thing was propagation was equally good to EU and JA simultaneously,   
   covering 2/3 of the earth for an hour".   
      
   Of course, propagation varies seasonally, and a small amount from   
   day to day and week to week, but it looks like having propagation to   
   Europe and Asia from Dan's location is not uncommon.  I averaged the   
   sunspot number for August 11-13 (32), and ran W6ELprop from Dan's   
   QTH (44.45 N. 93.3 W) to Japan and it shows good signals on 17   
   meters from 2030-0230z.  Doing the same for England shows about 10   
   db louder than Japan, but a rating showing less chance of   
   propagation over that path.  It shows a very good path from   
   1630-2030z, but after that it changes to a C rating, which means   
   25-50% chance instead of 50-75%, which is what it   
   shows to Japan.  Germany and Czech Republic don't look as good   
   during that period. It seems that propagation would be best from   
   Western Europe, and the further west, the better.   
      
   Pat Hamel, W5THT of Long Beach, Mississippi is active with an   
   experimental license on 500 KHz.  He says that signals from   
   Mississippi and Louisiana were copied in Alaska around 2011z on   
   August 12 by Laurence Howell, KL7UK near Wasilla.  Read more about   
   the 600 meter project at http://www.500kc.com .   
      
   If you will be in or near Estes Park, Colorado on the evening of   
   Thursday, August 25, you can attend a lecture on sunspots and solar   
   cycles at a meeting of the Estes Valley Astronomical Society.  See   
   details at http://www.eptrail.com/ci_18710497.   
      
   Note that tomorrow, August 20, the September edition of WorldRadio   
   online will be released.  Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA always has an   
   interesting and informative column on propagation in each issue.   
   Check http://www.worldradiomagazine.com/ on Saturday.   
      
   If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,   
   email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.   
      
   For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL   
   Technical Information Service at   
   http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of   
   the numbers used in this bulletin, see   
   http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of   
   past propagation bulletins is at   
   http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  Find more good   
   information and tutorials on propagation at   
   http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html.   
      
   The multiple websites mentioned in this bulletin can be found in   
   packet and internet versions of Propagation Forecast Bulletin   
   ARLP033.    
      
   Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve   
   overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.   
      
   Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL   
   bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.   
      
   Sunspot numbers for August 11 through 17 were 36, 25, 35, 0, 13, 26,   
   and 44, with a mean of 25.6.  10.7 cm flux was 84.2, 83.4, 83.1,   
   88.1, 90.4, 93, and 97.5, with a mean of 88.5.  Estimated planetary   
   A indices were 6, 5, 5, 9, 13, 8, and 6, with a mean of 7.4.   
   Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 3, 4, 8, 9, 6, and 6, with   
   a mean of 5.6.   
   NNNN   
   /EX   
      
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